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🟥 XAUUSD – Pro Bearish Playbook
Resistance Breached, But the Rally Looks Exhausted
Gold (XAUUSD) has just smashed through the 1M strong resistance at 3272.314, but let’s not kid ourselves — this move is running on fumes. The rally is heavily overbought, and macro sentiment is shifting fast.
🗞 Macro Trigger: Tariff War Cooling
President Trump has thrown a curveball, suggesting the U.S. may hold off on further tariff hikes, citing concerns about the impact on American consumers.
“At a certain point, people aren’t gonna buy,” he said.
He’s not ruling out new tariffs entirely, but the tone has clearly softened. Even China is stepping back, opting not to match U.S. hikes — and now the TikTok deal is on pause until trade talks settle. This reduces geopolitical risk, and that’s a red flag for gold bulls.
📉 Why We're Bearish:
Overbought Conditions: Gold is bloated. RSI, momentum, and fundamentals all scream “top-heavy.”
Safe-Haven Demand Shrinking: With tariffs cooling and equities catching a bid, gold demand is set to fade.
False Breakout Potential: The push above 3272.314 may be a trap if we don’t get follow-through.
🧭 Bearish Strategy – The Breakdown Plan
We’re not just throwing darts — here’s how we map the fall:
🔻 Level 💰 Price 📌 Role
🟧 1D Pivot Point Use live data Key trigger – watch for bearish confirmation below here.
🟨 1M Resistance (Now Suspect Support) 3272.314 Already breached; likely won’t hold on retest.
🟥 1W Pivot Point 3146.658 Next major target if momentum continues.
🚨 Bear Max Target 2466.313 Full breakdown scenario if risk-off vanishes.
🔥 Execution Plan – What to Do
✅ Wait for confirmation below 1D Pivot.
🔻 Short the rejection at 3272.314 if it acts as resistance on retest.
🎯 Target 3146.658, then trail stops toward 2466.313 on continued weakness.
🚫 Avoid blind entries – confirmation only. This isn’t guesswork.
We’re not chasing gold higher at these levels. We’re waiting for the turn, and when it confirms — we strike.
The Support and Resistance outlined in green and red are the respective support/resistance for this pair currently for 1M-1Y timeframes!
No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost
TradeWithTheTrend3344
🟥 XAUUSD – Pro Bearish Playbook
Resistance Breached, But the Rally Looks Exhausted
Gold (XAUUSD) has just smashed through the 1M strong resistance at 3272.314, but let’s not kid ourselves — this move is running on fumes. The rally is heavily overbought, and macro sentiment is shifting fast.
🗞 Macro Trigger: Tariff War Cooling
President Trump has thrown a curveball, suggesting the U.S. may hold off on further tariff hikes, citing concerns about the impact on American consumers.
“At a certain point, people aren’t gonna buy,” he said.
He’s not ruling out new tariffs entirely, but the tone has clearly softened. Even China is stepping back, opting not to match U.S. hikes — and now the TikTok deal is on pause until trade talks settle. This reduces geopolitical risk, and that’s a red flag for gold bulls.
📉 Why We're Bearish:
Overbought Conditions: Gold is bloated. RSI, momentum, and fundamentals all scream “top-heavy.”
Safe-Haven Demand Shrinking: With tariffs cooling and equities catching a bid, gold demand is set to fade.
False Breakout Potential: The push above 3272.314 may be a trap if we don’t get follow-through.
🧭 Bearish Strategy – The Breakdown Plan
We’re not just throwing darts — here’s how we map the fall:
🔻 Level 💰 Price 📌 Role
🟧 1D Pivot Point Use live data Key trigger – watch for bearish confirmation below here.
🟨 1M Resistance (Now Suspect Support) 3272.314 Already breached; likely won’t hold on retest.
🟥 1W Pivot Point 3146.658 Next major target if momentum continues.
🚨 Bear Max Target 2466.313 Full breakdown scenario if risk-off vanishes.
🔥 Execution Plan – What to Do
✅ Wait for confirmation below 1D Pivot.
🔻 Short the rejection at 3272.314 if it acts as resistance on retest.
🎯 Target 3146.658, then trail stops toward 2466.313 on continued weakness.
🚫 Avoid blind entries – confirmation only. This isn’t guesswork.
We’re not chasing gold higher at these levels. We’re waiting for the turn, and when it confirms — we strike.
The Support and Resistance outlined in green and red are the respective support/resistance for this pair currently for 1M-1Y timeframes!
No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost
TradeWithTheTrend3344
Note
🇺🇸 USD Weekly Recap: April 14–18Last Week’s Rundown: Dollar Under Pressure, But Underlying Strengths Remain
The U.S. dollar struggled throughout the week of April 14–18, pressured by rising U.S.-China trade tensions, mixed data, and cautious commentary from Fed officials. While traditional risk-off flows didn’t benefit the greenback this time, the underlying resilience in consumer activity and the Fed’s commitment to a steady policy path continue to support a bullish long-term outlook for the USD.
🧾 Key Data Releases: A Tale of Two Economies
✅ Retail Sales Show Consumer Strength
Retail Sales (Mar):
+1.4% m/m (vs 1.1% forecast)
+4.6% y/y (vs 2.6% forecast)
Retail Sales ex-Autos:
+0.5% m/m (vs 0.1% forecast)
🟢 Strong consumer demand continues to support the dollar’s case, reinforcing optimism about U.S. domestic strength.
❌ Manufacturing Shows Signs of Stress
Philadelphia Fed Index (Apr): -26.4 (vs 2.2 forecast)
Industrial Production (Mar): -0.3% m/m
Manufacturing Production: +0.3% m/m
🔴 Soft factory output may fuel recession concerns, but resilience in consumption and housing offsets the downside risks for USD bulls.
🏠 Housing & Labor Data Mixed
Building Permits: 1.48M (beat forecast)
Housing Starts: 1.32M (missed forecast)
Initial Jobless Claims: 215K (lower than expected)
⚪ Moderate labor strength and solid permitting activity continue to underpin a stable U.S. economy — bullish ingredients for the dollar.
🔥 U.S.-China Tensions: A New Kind of USD Risk
Boeing deliveries halted by China
Hong Kong Post suspends U.S. package shipments
U.S. threatens up to 245% tariffs
Probes into semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and critical minerals escalate
New sanctions on Chinese-linked firms
🧨 The dollar’s unusual underperformance during heightened tensions signals a temporary dislocation, but we view this as a buy-the-dip scenario for the USD, not a structural breakdown.
🏛️ Fed’s Wait-and-See Approach Favors USD Bulls
Powell: Economy slowing, but not enough for a cut
Fed cautious on tariffs’ impact on inflation
Beth Hammack and Jeff Schmid urge patience
Waller: Tariff-related inflation is "transitory"
📈 As rate cuts remain off the table for now and inflation pressures linger, real yields stay elevated — a classic USD bullish setup and a headwind for XAU/USD.
🌍 Central Bank Divergence
Bank of Canada: Held at 2.75%
ECB: Cut to 2.25%
🪙 Diverging global policies give the U.S. dollar more room to flex higher. This further weakens gold, which competes poorly with yield-bearing assets when rates are steady or rising.
🕊️ Trade Talk Headlines Bring USD Flashes of Strength
Electronics tariff exemptions
Positive talks with Japan, South Korea, India, Italy, and Mexico
Nvidia pledges $500B U.S. investment
China says it's open to talks “if respected”
💡 Each sign of progress sparked renewed USD buying interest — highlighting that sentiment can flip fast and supports our pro-USD thesis.
Note
Trump’s latest renewed threat against Powell has sent gold prices surging toward $3,500. His apparent aim? To oust Powell prematurely and replace him with someone more aligned with his economic stance. For now, any plans to sell gold are off the table—unless favorable tariff deals can shift the tide. This unexpected turn of events adds a layer of drama to the markets. Thanks for the chaos, Trump.Note
Right after I posted the note about Trump potentially manipulating the market with his remarks aimed at Powell, breaking news dropped — he walked back his statement, saying he has no plans to fire Chair Jerome Powell, but still wants lower interest rates. And right at market open, we saw that sharp bearish dip down toward 3330!Note
If the price breaks and holds below 3272.314, we’re still in play—though admittedly, this setup has developed quite unexpectedly. Given the heightened level of unpredictability, exercise extra caution with stop losses. As soon as the price begins to move in your favor, set your stop loss to breakeven and continue to adjust it dynamically.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.