**1. Market Structure Analysis**
- **Break of Structure (BOS):** Previous BOS points indicate a **downtrend continuation**.
- **Change of Character (CHoCH):** Multiple CHoCH events suggest minor retracements within the dominant bearish trend.
- **Liquidity Zones:**
- **Premium Zone (~$2,925 - $2,931):** Strong resistance, price failed to hold above.
- **Discount Zone (~$2,880 - $2,885):** Key support area where buyers might step in.
- **Equilibrium (~$2,907):** The price is well below equilibrium, confirming bearish momentum.
**2. Key Levels Identified**
- **Premium Supply Zone (~$2,925 - $2,931):** Rejection confirms this as strong resistance.
- **Weak Low (~$2,884 - $2,879):** Bears might target this liquidity.
- **Discount Demand Zone (~$2,874 - $2,885):** Possible reversal area for buyers.
**3. Expected Scenarios & Probability**
1. **Bearish Breakdown – 70% Probability**
- **Reason:** Price is hovering around PDL (Previous Day's Low) and near weak low liquidity. If it breaks, expect further downside.
- **Target:** $2,874 - $2,870.
- **Confirmation:** A break and close below **$2,885**.
2. **Bullish Reversal from Discount Zone – 30% Probability**
- **Reason:** If price taps into **PWL ($2,874 - $2,879)** and shows bullish signs, we may see a retracement.
- **Target:** $2,900 - $2,907 (equilibrium).
- **Confirmation:** Strong bullish reaction at the discount zone.
**4. Trading Strategy**
- **Sell Setup:** If price breaks below **$2,885** with bearish confirmation.
- **Entry:** Below $2,885.
- **SL:** Above $2,900.
- **TP1:** $2,879.
- **TP2:** $2,874.
- **Risk-Reward:** 1:3.
- **Buy Setup:** If price shows bullish reaction at **$2,874 - $2,879**.
- **Entry:** Around $2,878.
- **SL:** Below $2,870.
- **TP1:** $2,900.
- **TP2:** $2,907.
- **Risk-Reward:** 1:4.
**Final Thoughts**
- **Probability of bearish continuation:** **70%** (favoring downside move to $2,874).
- **Probability of bullish reversal:** **30%** (bounce from discount zone to $2,900+).
- **Watch for confirmation before entering trades!**
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.