On March 19, the Fed dot plot showed that among the 19 officials, 4 officials believed that there should be no interest rate cut in 2025 (1 in December), 4 officials believed that the interest rate should be cut by 25 basis points in total in 2025, that is, 1 time (3 in December), 9 officials believed that the interest rate should be cut by 50 basis points in total in 2025, that is, 2 times (10 in December), 2 officials believed that the interest rate should be cut by 75 basis points in total in 2025, that is, 3 times (3 in December), no official believed that the interest rate should be cut by 100 basis points in total in 2025 (1 in December), and no official believed that the interest rate should be cut by 125 basis points in total in 2025 (1 in December). FOMC statement of the Federal Reserve: Fed Governor Waller opposed this interest rate decision. He supports not changing the policy interest rate, but prefers not to change the pace of balance sheet reduction.
Futures data show that traders believe that the probability of the Fed resuming rate cuts at the June meeting is 62.1%, while the probability was 57% before the Fed made a decision.
Gold technical analysis:
From a technical perspective, gold is undoubtedly bullish at the current weekly, daily or 4-hour level, but the indicator shows that the current price has shown signs of divergence after a continuous rise. We previously analyzed that the price rose to 3040 and entered the bullish risk area. According to the weekly 2590 or the low 2540, one rose by 500$ and the other rose by 450$. The previous wave was 2286-2790, with an increase of 504$. This is the origin of 3040. If the double increase is calculated from 2590, there is still about 40-50$ of space. In other words, the maximum increase is 3080-90! But if it reaches 3040, don't blindly chase more, and the risk of bulls still needs to be considered. The current trend is definitely still bullish, so after the short-term correction is completed, the trend is still expected to continue to rise;
The 4-hour level intraday price hit 3045 and then stepped back to 3022 to enter the range consolidation. Although the K line broke the 5-day moving average support, it showed a strong resistance to decline when it stepped back to the 10-day moving average. The key strong and weak support 3015 below did not break, so the short-term remained above 3015 and continued to be bullish. Regarding Thursday's market, our professional and senior gold analyst team recommends the following: Do not chase highs, and mainly go long on pullbacks. If it touches 3055-3058 above, consider whether there is a suitable opportunity to short. If it pulls back to 3030-3028 below, you can resolutely go long.
Trade active
Fundamentals: First, the Federal Reserve announced at its monetary policy meeting on March 19 that it would maintain the target range of the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.50%, and expected to cut interest rates twice this year, each time by 25 basis points. This policy signal further supported the rise in gold prices; second, the Israeli military resumed ground operations in the Gaza Strip, leading to escalation of conflicts and causing a large number of casualties. In addition, two UN staff members were killed in the Israeli attack, further exacerbating geopolitical tensions and driving safe-haven funds into the gold market.
Yesterday, gold stabilized at the 3022 mark and continued the bullish strong shock upward breakout trend. The price of the Asian and European sessions rose slightly and pierced the 3045 mark and fell under pressure. The European session oscillated and fell and stabilized at the 3022 mark and rebounded. The US session stepped back and stabilized at the 3026 mark for the second time and strengthened. The gold price accelerated and broke through the 3050 mark and closed strongly at almost the highest point of the day. The daily K-line closed with a shock breakout of the high-middle Yang.
The 4-hour chart uses the middle track of the Bollinger Band as the support of the defense point. In the short-term unilateral bullish volume, the previous correction was just a sideways pause, and there was no deep adjustment. In the short term, this forced short-selling rally will continue. The right-side transaction will be the standard. There will be no closing pattern of a high-rise and fall. In the short term, it is still cautious to short. Although it is afraid of high to go long and afraid of early to go short, the strong trend has continuity. The middle track is used as the critical point for intraday short-term operations. Stay bullish above the mid-track, if it falls below or the daily line rises higher and falls back to close lower during the session, then consider short-selling. The Asian market coincides with yesterday's retracement low of 3022, which coincides with the mid-track. Take 3022 as the critical point, retreat above this position and go long, break down and adjust the direction, and the operation is based on the point of the market. Support 3040-3035, the overall gold price stabilized at the 3022 mark and continued the strong unilateral upward rhythm of the bulls. Before the daily level fell below this position, it continued to maintain the low bullish rhythm.
In terms of specific operations, it is recommended to buy at 3044/3042, and look up to 3054 and 3065.
Trade closed: target reached
Technical analysis of gold:
From the current market, the continuous rise of gold fully shows that the short-term bulls are taking the initiative, which will undoubtedly increase the probability of gold prices hitting the 3070-3080 area. We also need to be prepared for a false break or a real break in the market. From a technical perspective, the daily line has three consecutive positive lines, especially yesterday's positive line with a lower shadow, because the short-term moving average did not show weakness after yesterday's market adjustment, but continued to extend upward, especially the 5-day moving average has formed a strong support near 3023. In addition, other periodic indicators still maintain a bullish arrangement, and the golden cross of the MACD indicator shows sufficient upward potential. Therefore, on the whole, the high-level fluctuations of the daily line do not mean that the weakness will continue, and the bullish pull-up can still be expected. In the 4-hour chart, since it stabilized above the 3000 mark, gold has maintained a bullish trend and continued to hit new highs. The short-term moving average extends to the 3040-3038 area, which means that the support is still moving up. As other periodic indicators maintain a bullish arrangement, the Bollinger Bands continue to open upward as a whole. However, the MACD indicator currently has a clear top divergence, so the 4-hour chart continues to be bullish, but we must also be wary of the risk of a pullback.
For intraday operations, it is not recommended to pursue long positions at high levels. The main idea is to do long calls back to low levels. For lower support, focus on the 3040-3038 area. As long as the price can maintain its upward movement, the probability of seeing the 3070-3080 area during the day is very high. On the contrary, if the support breaks below, there will be a high probability of testing the 3023 area. As for the resistance, pay attention to the 3080 area. Our professional and senior gold analyst team predicts that the possibility of a breakthrough today is very small, but considering that the support has moved up. Taken together, today's short-term operation of gold, our professional and senior gold analyst team recommends to focus on callback longs, supplemented by rebound shorts. The top short-term focus will be on the 3050-3055 first-line resistance, and the bottom short-term focus will be on the 3025-3020 first-line support.
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💥Free gold trading signals: t.me/+OJSbWQ6F4KM2Mzk1
🏆Strategy guidance
💰Analysis layout
🥇Market tracking
💹In-depth analysis, accurate prediction, grasp the pulse of the gold market, if you like my ideas, please follow and forward
🏆Strategy guidance
💰Analysis layout
🥇Market tracking
💹In-depth analysis, accurate prediction, grasp the pulse of the gold market, if you like my ideas, please follow and forward
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.