XAUUSD – Gold Breaks the Range: Trend Reversal or Just a Fakeout?
After several days of sideways action, gold has finally broken out of its consolidation channel — but not upward. The price action signals uncertainty, while underlying global risks suggest a larger move may be brewing. With US markets closed for a bank holiday, low liquidity could lead to sharp, unexpected spikes — traders, stay alert.
🌍 Macro & Fundamental Outlook
📌 As widely expected, the Federal Reserve held rates steady, but Fed Chair Powell maintained a hawkish tone, warning that inflation risks remain due to ongoing geopolitical instability and rising commodity costs.
🔥 The gold market now hinges on two major geopolitical scenarios in the Middle East:
If the US intervenes diplomatically to ease tensions between Iran and Israel, gold may continue to correct further — possibly into the 3,325 – 3,300 range or lower.
However, if reports are accurate that Trump is coordinating with Israel for potential strikes on Iran, gold could spike aggressively as safe-haven demand surges toward 3,417 – 3,440.
📊 Technical Breakdown (M30 – H1)
Price has broken below the range-bound structure, suggesting a potential momentum shift to the downside.
The EMA cluster (13–34–89–200) is sloping downward, confirming bearish short-term pressure.
The 3,345 level has acted as support, but if it gives way, 3,325 becomes a critical liquidity zone where buyers may step in.
✅ Trading Plan
🟢 BUY ZONE 1: 3,325 – 3,328
Entry: Only after a clear bullish reversal (pin bar / bullish engulfing candle)
SL: Below 3,320
TP: 3,345 → 3,360 → 3,373 → 3,384
🟢 BUY ZONE 2: 3,345 – 3,348
Entry: On price retest and bullish confirmation
SL: Below 3,340
TP: 3,360 → 3,373 → 3,384 → 3,403
🔴 SELL ZONE: 3,417 – 3,440
Entry: If price rallies into resistance with no supporting fundamentals
SL: Above 3,445
TP: 3,403 → 3,384 → 3,360 → 3,345
💬 Final Thoughts
Gold is at a pivotal point. While today’s break could indicate a new leg down, we’ve seen countless false breakouts during low liquidity sessions. Only trade on confirmation — not emotion. Watch for geopolitical headlines and let price action guide your risk-adjusted decisions.
Stay patient. Stay sharp. Let the market prove itself before you do.
After several days of sideways action, gold has finally broken out of its consolidation channel — but not upward. The price action signals uncertainty, while underlying global risks suggest a larger move may be brewing. With US markets closed for a bank holiday, low liquidity could lead to sharp, unexpected spikes — traders, stay alert.
🌍 Macro & Fundamental Outlook
📌 As widely expected, the Federal Reserve held rates steady, but Fed Chair Powell maintained a hawkish tone, warning that inflation risks remain due to ongoing geopolitical instability and rising commodity costs.
🔥 The gold market now hinges on two major geopolitical scenarios in the Middle East:
If the US intervenes diplomatically to ease tensions between Iran and Israel, gold may continue to correct further — possibly into the 3,325 – 3,300 range or lower.
However, if reports are accurate that Trump is coordinating with Israel for potential strikes on Iran, gold could spike aggressively as safe-haven demand surges toward 3,417 – 3,440.
📊 Technical Breakdown (M30 – H1)
Price has broken below the range-bound structure, suggesting a potential momentum shift to the downside.
The EMA cluster (13–34–89–200) is sloping downward, confirming bearish short-term pressure.
The 3,345 level has acted as support, but if it gives way, 3,325 becomes a critical liquidity zone where buyers may step in.
✅ Trading Plan
🟢 BUY ZONE 1: 3,325 – 3,328
Entry: Only after a clear bullish reversal (pin bar / bullish engulfing candle)
SL: Below 3,320
TP: 3,345 → 3,360 → 3,373 → 3,384
🟢 BUY ZONE 2: 3,345 – 3,348
Entry: On price retest and bullish confirmation
SL: Below 3,340
TP: 3,360 → 3,373 → 3,384 → 3,403
🔴 SELL ZONE: 3,417 – 3,440
Entry: If price rallies into resistance with no supporting fundamentals
SL: Above 3,445
TP: 3,403 → 3,384 → 3,360 → 3,345
💬 Final Thoughts
Gold is at a pivotal point. While today’s break could indicate a new leg down, we’ve seen countless false breakouts during low liquidity sessions. Only trade on confirmation — not emotion. Watch for geopolitical headlines and let price action guide your risk-adjusted decisions.
Stay patient. Stay sharp. Let the market prove itself before you do.
⚜️ Trade with Money Market Flow, logic, Price action 📉📈
⚜️Risk Reward 1.3 to 2.5...
⚜️Daily 8 to 15 Signals VIP
Get quality daily trading signals and plans here
JOIN NOW
t.me/+IMP0jWwLSGNmYTRl
⚜️Risk Reward 1.3 to 2.5...
⚜️Daily 8 to 15 Signals VIP
Get quality daily trading signals and plans here
JOIN NOW
t.me/+IMP0jWwLSGNmYTRl
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
⚜️ Trade with Money Market Flow, logic, Price action 📉📈
⚜️Risk Reward 1.3 to 2.5...
⚜️Daily 8 to 15 Signals VIP
Get quality daily trading signals and plans here
JOIN NOW
t.me/+IMP0jWwLSGNmYTRl
⚜️Risk Reward 1.3 to 2.5...
⚜️Daily 8 to 15 Signals VIP
Get quality daily trading signals and plans here
JOIN NOW
t.me/+IMP0jWwLSGNmYTRl
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.