XAUUSD is currently moving sideways, fluctuating between 2365 and 2475, and is forming a triangle pattern. While the overall market has been stable for some time, we are likely to experience occasional pullbacks. Essentially, the market is building liquidity both above and below the triangle pattern, and a breakout could occur next week, especially with several high-impact news events on the horizon, such as CPI and unemployment claims.
On the daily timeframe, the picture remains consistent, with the market also showing signs of range-bound behavior. Recently, the price broke below last week’s low but subsequently moved higher, approaching the weekly opening price. I believe August may be a consolidation month, with price movements primarily confined within the triangle pattern before a new trend is established.
Looking at the weekly timeframe, the market closed with a long-tailed bar, indicating a rejection of prices below the support level at 2420 and closing above it. Notably, this is the second time in history that the price has closed above this level on the weekly timeframe. Previously, the market has consistently rejected this level and closed below it on a weekly basis. Overall, I expect price action to continue within the consolidation zone until we witness a clear breakout.
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Note
The price of gold has moved higher this morning and is approaching the 2450 resistance zone. Given the previous impulse leg from this level, there is a chance that the market may form a pullback from this resistance. Although the market has broken through the previous day's high, it remains to be seen whether it will be able to close above it. With no high-impact news scheduled for today, the likelihood of a sustained break through the 2450 resistance appears low. Therefore, I expect a pullback toward a support level, followed by a potential bullish move to retest the top of the triangle pattern. My target is resistance at 2465.
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