Hey fellow traders,
Let's dive into the
XAUUSD outlook for the upcoming week, June 9-13, 2025. The recent price action has been a rollercoaster 🎢, and the next few days promise even more fireworks 🎇.
Looking back at the 30-minute chart from May 22 to June 6, gold saw an initial consolidation, then a strong rally to multi-week highs near 3,420. However, this was followed by a sharp, dramatic reversal, pushing prices back below 3,300. This "bull trap" 🐂 pattern suggests underlying weakness and potential preemptive market positioning.
Another view on this could be the possibility that a gap on the chart at 3300-3295 of around $5 could get closed. Since strong support is right below this, it could serve as a good launchpad 🚀 for an upward rally. Let's see if the upcoming Asia session on Monday triggers this because its only - $14 from $3309.
Key Drivers for the Week Ahead:
📅 June 9, 2025 (Monday)
US-China High-Level Trade Talks Commence in London
High-level delegations from the United States and China began trade discussions in London. This meeting followed an announcement by President Donald Trump on Friday, June 6, 2025, who described a preceding 90-minute phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping as "very positive".
The US delegation included Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard
Lutnick, and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, reflecting a coordinated approach to addressing complex trade issues. The talks were primarily aimed at resolving the ongoing bilateral trade war, with a particular focus on tariffs and the global supply of critical rare earth minerals.5 While no specific time for the commencement of talks was provided, it is understood they began during London's daytime, approximately (10:12 CEST / 04:12 EDT).
These discussions occurred in the context of a temporary 90-day agreement reached on May 12, 2025, which had seen the US reduce its tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, and China reciprocate by lowering its tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10%.9 However, this temporary truce is set to expire in early August, and President Trump had recently accused China of violating the agreement, specifically regarding critical mineral exports. The broader bilateral relationship remains strained by issues extending beyond tariffs, including restrictions on advanced chips, student visas, and concerns over China's state-dominated economic model.
The prompt scheduling of these high-level talks immediately after a leader-to-leader call suggests a tactical move towards de-escalation of immediate trade tensions, aiming to prevent a full-blown trade war. The objective appears to be managing current conflicts rather than achieving a fundamental resolution, especially with the May 12 agreement nearing its expiration. The core disputes, such as control over rare earths and technology, are deeply entrenched and reflect a broader geopolitical competition rather than mere economic disagreements. This pattern of temporary de-escalation followed by persistent underlying tensions indicates a long-term,structural competition. It suggests that trade policy is increasingly intertwined with national security and geopolitical strategy, implying that businesses should anticipate continued volatility and strategic decoupling in certain sectors, rather than a return to pre-trade war normalcy.
Other big movers for gold will be the US inflation reports. 💥
📅 Wednesday, June 11 (14:30 CEST / 08:30 EDT):
We get the crucial US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.
Watch for Core CPI (YoY) with a forecast of 2.9% and headline CPI (YoY) at 2.5%.
📅 Thursday, June 12 (14:30 CEST / 08:30 EDT):
The US Producer Price Index (PPI) follows.
Forecasts are for Core PPI (YoY) at 3.0% and headline PPI (YoY) at 2.6%.
📊 These numbers are critical. If inflation comes in hotter 🔥 than expected, it will likely strengthen the US Dollar 💵 and push real interest rates higher 📈, making gold less attractive. This could trigger further declines 📉, especially given the current market structure. Conversely, cooler 🧊 inflation could spark a significant rebound 🔄.
Beyond US data, keep an eye 👁️ on speeches from various European Central Bank (ECB) officials throughout the week, including President Lagarde on Tuesday (23:15 CEST / 17:15 EDT). Their collective tone 🎤 could influence EUR/USD dynamics and indirectly impact the US Dollar Index, offering a counterbalance ⚖️ or amplification to gold's movements.
Key Numbers and Technical Levels to Watch:
Gold is currently sitting on a substantial speculative net long position of 187.9K contracts. This is a massive amount of bullish bets 📊🐂, making gold highly vulnerable to rapid liquidation 💣 if the fundamental picture turns sour. A "long squeeze" could amplify any downside move.
Immediate Support: The 3,300 level is paramount. A decisive break below it would signal further weakness. Below that, 3,250 is strong technical support where we saw a bounce previously.
Overhead Resistance: Look for resistance at 3,350-3,360, and then the recent peak of 3,420. Reclaiming these levels would require a significant shift in sentiment.
Expect high volatility ⚡, especially around the US inflation releases. Trade smart 🧠, manage your risk ⚖️, and stay nimble! 🏃
Geopolitical News Landscape 🌍
Technical View 📐
Regarding the major Head and Shoulders (H&S) reversal pattern on the 4H chart I shared previously, I'd like to explain some new developments that are altering its potential outcome.
Since the price has re-entered and fallen below the neckline, I activated my "second brain cell" 🧠 to guess what could be next. This led me to revise the larger 4-hour chart structure with the adjustments shown in the accompanying image.
As you can also see in the updated version below, a reversed H&S pattern remains a possibility, as the proportions still appear valid. 🔄
Potential Scenarios for Gold 🧩
Under this revised idea, Gold could potentially reach the neckline entry at 3397 (+88) from the current price. This is one plausible scenario. ✅
Alternatively, the price could drop further to the "Head" at 3120 (-191 from the current 3309), which would, of course, invalidate this H&S pattern. ❗
While this is speculative 🔮, given that trading often involves psychological movements and their resulting impacts, I believe this is a favorable approach to forecasting.
Another reason to see it as bullish is the formed standard bull flag 🚩🐂.
Please take the time to let me know what you think about this. 💬
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
This is just my personal market idea and not financial advice! 📢 Trading gold and other financial instruments carries risks – only invest what you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis, use solid risk management, and trade responsibly.
Good luck and safe trading! 🚀📊
Let's dive into the
XAUUSD outlook for the upcoming week, June 9-13, 2025. The recent price action has been a rollercoaster 🎢, and the next few days promise even more fireworks 🎇.Looking back at the 30-minute chart from May 22 to June 6, gold saw an initial consolidation, then a strong rally to multi-week highs near 3,420. However, this was followed by a sharp, dramatic reversal, pushing prices back below 3,300. This "bull trap" 🐂 pattern suggests underlying weakness and potential preemptive market positioning.
Another view on this could be the possibility that a gap on the chart at 3300-3295 of around $5 could get closed. Since strong support is right below this, it could serve as a good launchpad 🚀 for an upward rally. Let's see if the upcoming Asia session on Monday triggers this because its only - $14 from $3309.
Key Drivers for the Week Ahead:
📅 June 9, 2025 (Monday)
US-China High-Level Trade Talks Commence in London
High-level delegations from the United States and China began trade discussions in London. This meeting followed an announcement by President Donald Trump on Friday, June 6, 2025, who described a preceding 90-minute phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping as "very positive".
The US delegation included Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard
Lutnick, and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, reflecting a coordinated approach to addressing complex trade issues. The talks were primarily aimed at resolving the ongoing bilateral trade war, with a particular focus on tariffs and the global supply of critical rare earth minerals.5 While no specific time for the commencement of talks was provided, it is understood they began during London's daytime, approximately (10:12 CEST / 04:12 EDT).
These discussions occurred in the context of a temporary 90-day agreement reached on May 12, 2025, which had seen the US reduce its tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, and China reciprocate by lowering its tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10%.9 However, this temporary truce is set to expire in early August, and President Trump had recently accused China of violating the agreement, specifically regarding critical mineral exports. The broader bilateral relationship remains strained by issues extending beyond tariffs, including restrictions on advanced chips, student visas, and concerns over China's state-dominated economic model.
The prompt scheduling of these high-level talks immediately after a leader-to-leader call suggests a tactical move towards de-escalation of immediate trade tensions, aiming to prevent a full-blown trade war. The objective appears to be managing current conflicts rather than achieving a fundamental resolution, especially with the May 12 agreement nearing its expiration. The core disputes, such as control over rare earths and technology, are deeply entrenched and reflect a broader geopolitical competition rather than mere economic disagreements. This pattern of temporary de-escalation followed by persistent underlying tensions indicates a long-term,structural competition. It suggests that trade policy is increasingly intertwined with national security and geopolitical strategy, implying that businesses should anticipate continued volatility and strategic decoupling in certain sectors, rather than a return to pre-trade war normalcy.
Other big movers for gold will be the US inflation reports. 💥
📅 Wednesday, June 11 (14:30 CEST / 08:30 EDT):
We get the crucial US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.
Watch for Core CPI (YoY) with a forecast of 2.9% and headline CPI (YoY) at 2.5%.
📅 Thursday, June 12 (14:30 CEST / 08:30 EDT):
The US Producer Price Index (PPI) follows.
Forecasts are for Core PPI (YoY) at 3.0% and headline PPI (YoY) at 2.6%.
📊 These numbers are critical. If inflation comes in hotter 🔥 than expected, it will likely strengthen the US Dollar 💵 and push real interest rates higher 📈, making gold less attractive. This could trigger further declines 📉, especially given the current market structure. Conversely, cooler 🧊 inflation could spark a significant rebound 🔄.
Beyond US data, keep an eye 👁️ on speeches from various European Central Bank (ECB) officials throughout the week, including President Lagarde on Tuesday (23:15 CEST / 17:15 EDT). Their collective tone 🎤 could influence EUR/USD dynamics and indirectly impact the US Dollar Index, offering a counterbalance ⚖️ or amplification to gold's movements.
Key Numbers and Technical Levels to Watch:
Gold is currently sitting on a substantial speculative net long position of 187.9K contracts. This is a massive amount of bullish bets 📊🐂, making gold highly vulnerable to rapid liquidation 💣 if the fundamental picture turns sour. A "long squeeze" could amplify any downside move.
Immediate Support: The 3,300 level is paramount. A decisive break below it would signal further weakness. Below that, 3,250 is strong technical support where we saw a bounce previously.
Overhead Resistance: Look for resistance at 3,350-3,360, and then the recent peak of 3,420. Reclaiming these levels would require a significant shift in sentiment.
Expect high volatility ⚡, especially around the US inflation releases. Trade smart 🧠, manage your risk ⚖️, and stay nimble! 🏃
Geopolitical News Landscape 🌍
India / Pakistan
The ceasefire from May 10 is holding, but diplomatic relations remain frosty. India has launched a global image campaign to gain support, while Pakistan insists on dialogue and accountability.
Outlook: Without substantial agreements on border terrorism and water issues, tensions will stay latently high, with potential for new escalation risks. ⚠️
Gaza Conflict
Violence escalated again in early June. Israel intensified attacks, killing civilians seeking aid in Gaza City, and at least six people were killed at a distribution point.
Outlook: The humanitarian situation continues to worsen 🚨, and international mediation efforts are urgently needed. However, an immediate ceasefire seems unrealistic. ❌
Russia / Ukraine
In the first week of June, Russia launched one of its largest series of attacks: hundreds of drones and missiles hit Kharkiv and Kyiv, resulting in civilian casualties. Simultaneously, a planned prisoner exchange has stalled.
Outlook: Strategic air attacks will likely continue 💥, and the prisoner exchange remains deadlocked. Without a diplomatic initiative, the conflict will stay entrenched. 🕳️
U.S.–China Trade War
Following talks between Trump and Xi, new negotiation rounds are expected in London. China has opened up rare earth exports, a sign of cautious de-escalation.
Outlook: If dialogue channels open 🗣️, systemic trust could grow, but genuine reforms remain uncertain. 🤔
🌐 Global Trade War
The OECD has lowered its growth outlook to 2.9%, warning of protectionism 🧱 and delayed investments. The ECB is also maintaining synchronization with the FED.
Outlook: Without de-escalation, the world faces a global economic slowdown 🐌 and permanent fragmentation of supply chains. 🔗
🏛 Trump vs. Powell
Trump has again complained about the FOMC's hesitancy, nicknaming Powell “Too Late,” and demanding a full 1% interest rate cut.
Outlook: Pressure is mounting 📣. Whether the Fed yields depends on if inflation and labor data allow for a loose policy. 🎯
💵 U.S. Inflation – May 2025
Forward-looking data shows a weakening services sector and consumer prices rising again as tariffs pass through. Official CPI data for May 2025 will be released on June 11.
Outlook: Higher inflation could halt the Fed's "dereflexion" course — a dilemma ⚖️ between growth 📈 and price stability. 🛑
Technical View 📐
Regarding the major Head and Shoulders (H&S) reversal pattern on the 4H chart I shared previously, I'd like to explain some new developments that are altering its potential outcome.
Since the price has re-entered and fallen below the neckline, I activated my "second brain cell" 🧠 to guess what could be next. This led me to revise the larger 4-hour chart structure with the adjustments shown in the accompanying image.
As you can also see in the updated version below, a reversed H&S pattern remains a possibility, as the proportions still appear valid. 🔄
Potential Scenarios for Gold 🧩
Under this revised idea, Gold could potentially reach the neckline entry at 3397 (+88) from the current price. This is one plausible scenario. ✅
Alternatively, the price could drop further to the "Head" at 3120 (-191 from the current 3309), which would, of course, invalidate this H&S pattern. ❗
While this is speculative 🔮, given that trading often involves psychological movements and their resulting impacts, I believe this is a favorable approach to forecasting.
Another reason to see it as bullish is the formed standard bull flag 🚩🐂.
Please take the time to let me know what you think about this. 💬
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
This is just my personal market idea and not financial advice! 📢 Trading gold and other financial instruments carries risks – only invest what you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis, use solid risk management, and trade responsibly.
Good luck and safe trading! 🚀📊
Note
Patterns! In the last few weeks, we've seen some interesting ones, and I'd like to show you why I like them so much.The actual pattern here is this yellow reverse H&S. Let's see if it plays out.
Note
It wasn't a bad Monday. The Asia Session closed the gap, and over the day, the gold price rose to $3338 from a low of $3293. In later hours Monday, gold turned into waiting mode, and so did traders, because everyone is awaiting news from the negotiation talks in London between the USA and China. Since no real output is public, the price went down a little bit to $3325. Let's see what Tuesday brings.When both parties can agree on a good deal for both sides and the outcome is stable, then we'll probably see gold rushing down the alley. If no deal can be made during these negotiations, then gold will probably rise.
However, because the day of "Inflation Data" is coming closer, I hope we don't get everything at once.
So far, gold is playing as expected.
Note
More than two days of waiting for news ⏳, and a market that feels frozen 🧊, with a smaller range than in normal times and not offering many opportunities to get good entries, is...Trading in a range of $30 is...
My time to trade is limited ⏱️, so I don't have the 23-hour ability others have for trade opportunities.
But waiting for a chance is like what every hunter has to do until their quarry appears to hunt it down 🏹, right? Gold is recently acting like a rabbit running in zigzags to escape 🐇. And the few chances I had to make a catch turned out to be bait or lacked enough volume to break through resistance or support. Hopefully, this is over soon 🙏, and the market can get back to normal. "Normal" would need to be defined, but it's definitely different from now.
Let's see what Wednesday brings 🗓️. I was hoping we'd get news about a trade deal between China and the USA today 🇨🇳🇺🇸, but it seems to be more complicated the longer it takes. Good luck to everyone tomorrow 🍀 because it could be big if inflation data comes out 📈 and maybe news about a deal. Take care ⚠️, because if it goes as expected, the movements could be very sharp, from down to up and so on.
Note
Tariff War: Trump's "Deal" with China 🇺🇸🇨🇳Of course, Trump announced a "deal" with China is done, but because this "deal" is a work in progress and not officially accepted by both sides, the decision isn't finalized yet. 🤔
Deal getting US-China trade truce back on track is done, Trump says. ✅
Trump says US tariffs will be set at 55%, China's at 10%. 💰
The deal should resolve rare earth minerals and magnet curbs. 🌎
It seems there's not enough trust for a good standing on this, as the gold price reacted with high demand, surging from $3327 to $3360 (a gain of $33)! 📈
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Inflation Data Announcement 📉
US Inflation Rate Rises Less than Expected! 😮
The annual inflation rate in the US rose for the first time in four months to 2.4% in May 2025 from April’s 2.3% (the lowest since 2021), but came in below expectations of 2.5%. Prices rose more for:
Food (2.9% vs 2.8% in April) 🍔
Transportation services (2.8% vs 2.5%) 🚗
Used cars and trucks (1.8% vs 1.5%) 🚙
New vehicles (0.4% vs 0.3%) 🆕
On the other hand, inflation fell slightly for shelter (3.9% vs 4%). Meanwhile, energy costs declined 3.5%, following a 3.7% fall in April. Prices for gasoline (-12% vs -11.8%) and fuel oil (-8.6% vs -9.6%) continued to decrease, while the rise for natural gas prices remained elevated (15.3% vs 15.7%). ⛽
On a monthly basis, the CPI edged up 0.1%, below 0.2% in the previous month and forecasts of 0.2%. In addition, annual core inflation (which excludes volatile food and energy prices) remained at 2.8%, holding at 2021-lows, while expectations were pointing to a rise to 2.9%. The monthly core CPI also edged up 0.1%, below 0.2% in April and expectations of 0.3%.
Because of these softer numbers (expectations were worse), the gold price fell from $3360 back down to $3328. 📉
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Later on Wednesday: Market Shift! geopolitical 🌍
News arrived later on Wednesday, and the whole market changed! 🚨
Evacuation of US Diplomatic Presence for Several States in Middle East:
Officials cite 'heightened security risks' for the decision. ⚠️
The US has previously threatened to strike Iran. 💥
US military dependents authorized to leave the region. ✈️
Gold surged from $ 3315 back to $ 3355 (+$ 40).
Behind these announcements, it's clear there's more to it. Tomorrow will be hot again for traders and the market! 🔥
Because of all this, it seems the old structure about the big reverse H&S comes back into play. Still interested to see where all actual things lead gold to! 💰📈
Note
Thursday: Despite expectations of a falling gold price due to a better-than-forecasted US - PMI, gold actually rose from $3338 to $3399 (a $61 increase) over the day. 📈The PMI came in softer at 0.1, while 0.2 was forecasted. Normally, this would suggest a "sell" scenario, as it's better than expected. However, the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Israel-Iran conflict is providing a strong foundation for gold's growth. Additionally, the unpredictable situation surrounding a potential trade deal between China and the USA adding to the market's unease. Even with Trump's claims of a deal, it's public knowledge that tariffs are set to remain until the end of August, leaving much up in the air. 🤷
Gold is in a tricky position! After a hot trading day with heavy volume and some wild price movements, I'm glad I secured some profits. 🤑 Now, looking at the chart at the end of the day, all I see is RESISTANCE, and a lot of it! 🚧
I have no idea how Asia will react in the upcoming session. 🤔 But if they drive the price higher, I think the daily resistance between $3419 and $3500 could be the ceiling. Anything is possible; maybe the Asian session will truly break through. Personally, I lean more towards a pullback if $3419 is touched.
Perhaps Friday will be a sell day? Who knows! 📉
Another thing I noticed, without knowing its accuracy for sure, is that the Big Reverse Head & Shoulders pattern has already touched its neckline! 🤯
I'm not sure what's coming next, but if the price keeps climbing, it will be a tough decision for me to enter a trade, at least until a new All-Time High (ATH) becomes visible. 🧐
But that's not all! There's also another Reverse Head & Shoulders forming on a smaller timeframe, which isn't complete yet, but take a look: 👀
When the price reaches $3429, the left shoulder's bottom will be ready (I know it's technically at the top for a reverse H&S).
With all this in mind, I believe we might see at least a little bit of movement towards $3429, followed by a pullback to around $3333? 🤔
Stay tuned and let me know what you think about this theory! 👇
Note
Friday recap 📉starting with high expectations for a growing price, likely influenced by the geopolitical tensions in Israel and Iran.
The Asia Session kicked things off nicely, pushing the price up from $3379 to $3444 (a solid +$65 gain! 💪). However, during the European session, the price dipped back down to $3408 before surging again to $3446, marking a new higher high (+ $38). 📈
As the US Session came in, we saw a higher low at $3419 (-$27). After that, the market was mostly "hovering the grass," or chopping sideways 🤷♀️, with crazy volume bouncing back and forth.
The market ultimately closed at $3432, with approximately 18% more trade volume than average (570k compared to 481k). 📊
Overall, it was disappointing to see the price not break out and rise higher than $3446. Hopefully, Monday brings a more stable and predictable market environment. 🤞
While the situation in Israel and Iran continues to develop, it seemed big players were taking "dumb money" from retail traders like crazy on Friday. 💰🤔
Trade closed: target reached
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.