Gold indecisive above the Neutral Rectangle
Gold's general commentary: As Gold is Trading within Hourly 4 chart’s Ascending Channel, this is very cautious market at the moment. Yet again, I see no firm reason for current Buying bias on Gold, as #1,938.80 - #1,942.80 should price in local Top’s and reversal area. After observing Gold’s Price-action near marker closing, #1,952.80 remains an Intra-day possibility. As long as the #98.40 level on DX holds and the Bond Yields continue with their Volatile phase on Weekly chart (#1W), I expect Gold to remain under pressure and continue Trading sideways both on Hourly 1 and Hourly 4 chart. I do expect however the currency speculators to push DX as High as they can ahead of next week in order to secure a more comfortable Short - Selling entry in the late session. Technically, Daily chart is stuck inside a #5-session consecutive #20 point belt Trading within the Rectangle aswell on High Volatility variable that can keep the Price-action inside #1,927.80 - #1,952.80 until today’s U.S. session opening Bell. I am still expecting a break of the #1,917.80 Support within #2 sessions, and my #1,900.80 Target extension, break of which can negate Buyers on the Short-term. I expect consolidation for the rest of the E.U. session and early U.S. opening to provide Investor sentiment ahead of crucial Fundamental announcements. Break of #1,932.80 - #1,927.80 belt can spike Gold downwards and slide the Price-action towards #1,900.80 psychological barrier. I am still looking at #1,882.80 initially.
Fundamental analysis: Regarding Fundamental developments, Dynamic Yield curve chart got my attention since it is approaching strong Resistance levels, and as soon as Price-action is Trading on mentioned levels for a while, aggressive decline occurs (compare the pre-crisis of #2008. Year values, indicating strong recession ahead). When Fed raises rates, Dynamic Yield curve chart is best to be monitored for Short and Medium-term pointers. It is important to note that Base currency chart spiked all the way from #0.8 all the way towards #6.1 trillion. It is important to monitor NATO summit, since it can escalate or de-escalate the situation, which can heavily affect Gold's Price-action.
Technical analysis: Despite today's E.U. session’s opening indecision, Gold is showing High durability as it remains on Higher High’s relative to Friday’s and Monday's attempts to find the equilibrium between DX and Bond Yields. Despite the new High's lately on DX, the continuous uptrend on Bond Yields and of course the parabolic downtrend (emerging Head and Shoulders pattern on Gold's Hourly 4 chart) - Gold still hasn't made a new Higher Low's, making me believe that the underlying trend remains Bearish (Medium-term) but with Bullish Short-term gradient, as Price-action is Trading on local Higher High’s - as I doubt it will stay this way for long (which constitutes that #1,952 might be the Ultimate Top). Further argument for it is that the Weekly chart is defending the further both upside and downside movement as Gold should follow through soon enough (any break above #1,952.80 is an full Bullish confirmation). My advice for Short-term Traders is to Sell Gold on tight stops whenever they see Daily chart's Bullish candle on DX or Bond Yields, keeping in mind that the market has to make needed correction, can’t only Trade in one direction. Market sentiment is too dangerous to approach without breakout points and tight Risk management, but both way's I am expecting #1,900.80 psychological barrier test within #2 sessions. Gold can’t keep ignoring recent High’s on Bond Yields for much longer.
My position: My yesterday's Selling order was invalidated with an Stop-loss (#1,921.80 - #1,928.80) as I am currently comfortably without an order. This is no time to make wild bets on the market. On positive NATO summit aftermath, Fundamental pressure may de-escalate and engage serious decline on Gold (if #1,933.80 - #1,930.80 Support zone breaks, I will Sell Gold on spot towards #1,910.80 Support zone). However, I will only Buy Gold (regarding Short-term) if Price-action invalidates and closes the session above #1,952.80 Resistance.
Fundamental analysis: Regarding Fundamental developments, Dynamic Yield curve chart got my attention since it is approaching strong Resistance levels, and as soon as Price-action is Trading on mentioned levels for a while, aggressive decline occurs (compare the pre-crisis of #2008. Year values, indicating strong recession ahead). When Fed raises rates, Dynamic Yield curve chart is best to be monitored for Short and Medium-term pointers. It is important to note that Base currency chart spiked all the way from #0.8 all the way towards #6.1 trillion. It is important to monitor NATO summit, since it can escalate or de-escalate the situation, which can heavily affect Gold's Price-action.
Technical analysis: Despite today's E.U. session’s opening indecision, Gold is showing High durability as it remains on Higher High’s relative to Friday’s and Monday's attempts to find the equilibrium between DX and Bond Yields. Despite the new High's lately on DX, the continuous uptrend on Bond Yields and of course the parabolic downtrend (emerging Head and Shoulders pattern on Gold's Hourly 4 chart) - Gold still hasn't made a new Higher Low's, making me believe that the underlying trend remains Bearish (Medium-term) but with Bullish Short-term gradient, as Price-action is Trading on local Higher High’s - as I doubt it will stay this way for long (which constitutes that #1,952 might be the Ultimate Top). Further argument for it is that the Weekly chart is defending the further both upside and downside movement as Gold should follow through soon enough (any break above #1,952.80 is an full Bullish confirmation). My advice for Short-term Traders is to Sell Gold on tight stops whenever they see Daily chart's Bullish candle on DX or Bond Yields, keeping in mind that the market has to make needed correction, can’t only Trade in one direction. Market sentiment is too dangerous to approach without breakout points and tight Risk management, but both way's I am expecting #1,900.80 psychological barrier test within #2 sessions. Gold can’t keep ignoring recent High’s on Bond Yields for much longer.
My position: My yesterday's Selling order was invalidated with an Stop-loss (#1,921.80 - #1,928.80) as I am currently comfortably without an order. This is no time to make wild bets on the market. On positive NATO summit aftermath, Fundamental pressure may de-escalate and engage serious decline on Gold (if #1,933.80 - #1,930.80 Support zone breaks, I will Sell Gold on spot towards #1,910.80 Support zone). However, I will only Buy Gold (regarding Short-term) if Price-action invalidates and closes the session above #1,952.80 Resistance.
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- I do provide professional Gold consulting (signals and financial advice) and Gold Trading school.
- Trading Gold since #2012'.
- I do provide professional Gold consulting (signals and financial advice) and Gold Trading school.
- Trading Gold since #2012'.
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