In-depth analysis of gold market and precise trading strategy
Analysis of core contradictions
Game of long and short forces:
Short forces: Strong economic data (retail sales +0.6%, unemployment benefits 221,000) pushed the US dollar index to 98.95, and the US Treasury yield rose to 4.495%
Bull forces: The safe-haven buying caused by inflation expectations formed a strong takeover, and the 3300 mark showed strong support
Market signal interpretation:
The deep V reversal shows the characteristics of "false breakthrough", and smart funds take the opportunity to absorb funds
The negative correlation between US Treasury yields and gold has temporarily failed, reflecting the market's confusion about the Fed's policy expectations
Technical three-dimensional analysis
Daily level:
MACD double-line golden cross, the upward momentum column is mildly increased
KDJ golden cross runs above 60, not entering the overbought area
Key watershed: 3320 (bullish defense line) vs 3375 (previous high resistance)
4-hour level:
The rising channel is complete, and the low point gradually moves up (3309→3320)
The angle after the KDJ golden cross is steep, indicating sufficient short-term momentum
30-minute short-term:
3350 constitutes the intraday long-short balance point
If the Asian session falls and the callback does not fall below 3342, the strong structure will be maintained
Precise trading strategy
Main long plan:
Ideal entry: 3332-3335 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level)
Defense point: 3318 (Daily EMA30 support)
Target ladder: 3355 (Start reducing positions and take profits) → 3372 (stop profit 50%) → 3398 (trend target)
Secondary short opportunity:
Trigger condition: first touch 3373 + shooting star pattern
Stop loss setting: 3383 (previous high + 3 US dollars to filter false breakthroughs)
Profit space: 3350-3340 (quick in and quick out)
Breakthrough trading strategy:
Break above 3380: chase longs when stepping back to 3370, target 3400 integer level
Break below 3315: short when the price rebounds to 3325, target 3290 support
Key price matrix
Support level 3330 long-short boundary
Support level 3310 trend lifeline
Resistance level 3365 previous day high
Resistance level 3375 weekly level strong resistance
Special tips for risk management:
Position control: single transaction does not exceed 3% of the principal
Time window: US market volatility is usually magnified by 30%
Emergency warning:
Speech by Fed officials may trigger a $50 fluctuation
The escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East will trigger safe-haven buying
Operational suggestions: The current market is in a key direction selection window, and it is recommended to adopt a combination strategy of "breakthrough follow + callback buy". Focus on the breakthrough of the 3365-3375 area during the US trading period. If three consecutive 15-minute K-lines stand at 3370, the upward space will be opened. Conservative investors can wait for a pullback to the 3330-3335 area to arrange mid-term long positions.
Trade active
Analysis of the latest gold market trend on July 21:
📌 Current market dynamics
Gold price trend: The European session rose slightly, and the lowest price in the Asian morning session rebounded after falling back to 3345, which is in line with the weekend strategy expectations.
Key driving factors:
Safe-haven demand: The US tariff deadline on August 1 is approaching, and trade uncertainty supports gold prices.
Fed policy expectations: The market is paying attention to Powell's speech on Tuesday. If a dovish signal is released, it may further boost gold.
Dollar trend: The U.S. dollar rebounded slightly, but remained weak overall, limiting the downside for gold.
📊 Technical key signals
1. Daily level
Trend: The overall trend is still in a volatile upward pattern, but it has recently shown a "rising and falling" pattern, indicating that it may enter a range of fluctuations in the short term (3340-3380).
Moving average system: MA5/MA10 golden cross, the 60-day moving average (~3330) has been tested many times without breaking, indicating strong medium- and long-term support.
Key resistance: 3377-3380 (previous high), target after breakthrough is 3400-3430.
2. 4-hour level
Short-term structure: After falling back to 3345 in the early trading, it rebounded, forming the secondary low point support, MACD rising column enlarged, KDJ golden cross, short-term bullish.
🎯 Today's trading strategy
👉 Long opportunity (main idea)
Steady long order: fall back to 3350-3345 and stabilize to go long, stop loss 3338, target 3365-3375.
Breakthrough chasing long: If the European session stands above 3361, you can follow up with a light position and long orders, stop loss 3350, target 3377-3380.
👉 Short-selling opportunity (auxiliary strategy)
When the price first touches 3380 and comes under pressure (stagflation signal appears in 15 minutes), short-selling is possible, stop loss 3387, target 3365-3355.
⚠️ Risk warning
Powell's speech: The speech of the Fed Chairman on Tuesday may trigger volatility.
Tariff deadline: If trade frictions escalate before August 1, gold may accelerate its rise.
📌 Summary
Short-term trend: Oscillating more, mainly low and long in the 3340-3380 range.
Key breakthrough level: 3380 (upward break to see 3400+) vs 3340 (downward break to turn to oscillation).
Operation suggestion: Pay attention to the support of 3350-3345 in the European session. If it stays above 3360 before the US session, it is expected to test the resistance of 3377-3380.
Trade closed: target reached
The latest trend and strategy of gold on July 22:
📌 Core view: Strong shock, mainly low-long
✅ Trend direction: Bullish in the short term, obvious technical bullish signals, and optimistic market sentiment.
✅ Key support/resistance:
Support level: 3375 (breakthrough to support), 3360 (strong support).
Resistance level: 3400 (psychological barrier), 3430 (this week's target).
🔍 News analysis
Positive factors:
Weak US dollar: The US dollar index fell, boosting the attractiveness of gold.
Safe-haven demand: Geopolitical and economic uncertainties support gold prices.
Potential risks:
If the US dollar rebounds or market risk appetite picks up, gold may be under short-term pressure.
📊 Technical analysis
1. Daily level
Moving average system: MA5-MA10 golden cross, prices stand firm on the short-term moving average, indicating that bulls are dominant.
MACD: The upward momentum column is enlarged, the fast and slow lines are golden crosses, and the upward momentum is enhanced.
KDJ: Diverging upward, not overbought, and there is still room for upward movement.
Trend judgment: Overall bullish, target 3400-3430.
2. 4-hour level
Bollinger Bands: The upper rail opens upward, and the price runs along the upper rail, showing strength.
MACD: The golden cross continues, the momentum column is enlarged, and the buying power is sufficient.
Moving average arrangement: MA5/MA10 golden cross, supporting the upward price.
Short-term key position: 3375 (turned into support after breaking through).
3. 1-hour level
Moving average support: The price always runs above MA20, and the short-term callback is limited.
Momentum indicator: KDJ is blunted at a high level, and short-term corrections need to be vigilant, but the trend has not changed.
🎯 Trading strategy for today
🔵 Main strategy: long on pullback
Ideal entry point:
3370-3375 (breakthrough to support range).
3360 (strong support, more stable).
Target: 3390→3400→3430 (take profit in batches).
Stop loss: below 3360 (prevent false breakthrough).
🔴 Secondary strategy: chase long on breakthrough (aggressive)
Condition: After the price stabilizes at 3400, follow up with a light position.
Target: 3430, stop loss 3385.
⚡ Risk warning
If it falls below 3360, the short-term may turn to shock and the strategy needs to be adjusted.
Pay attention to US market data and the trend of the US dollar.
📌 Summary
Trend: short-term bullish, mainly low-long, pay attention to the breakthrough of the 3375-3400 range.
Key risk control: 3360 is the watershed between long and short, and wait and see if it falls below.
(⚠️ Reminder: Market volatility intensifies, strictly stop loss, avoid heavy positions!)
❤️Free gold trading signals:t.me/+OJSbWQ6F4KM2Mzk1
💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
❤️Free gold trading signals:t.me/+OJSbWQ6F4KM2Mzk1
💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.