The gold market is currently in a holding pattern, with traders reluctant to make premature decisions due to upcoming significant news. A consolidation below the level of 2315 is observed.
A false break of support has led the price to retest the 2310-2315 range, after which traders are pausing before the news release. All attention is focused on the forthcoming major events, namely the CPI and the Fed meeting. The key US CPI data will influence the Fed's stance on interest rates, which will, in turn, significantly affect the value of the US dollar and gold prices in the short term. The market anticipates neutral data (no change), which would likely maintain the same fundamental backdrop. However, the actual data is highly anticipated, especially after last Friday's unexpectedly high NFP.
Any initial reaction to the US CPI data might be short-lived as gold traders will soon turn their attention to the FOMC & Fed meeting.
Resistance levels are identified at 2315, 2325, and 2354, while support levels are found at 2305, 2291, and 2267.
From both a technical and fundamental perspective, gold appears weak at the moment. Amidst high volatility, the price may attempt to breach 2325 and test the liquidity zone of 2335-2345, then transition to a decline phase if the fundamental backdrop is conducive. The risk of further decline remains substantial, but the upcoming news could either exacerbate this decline or disrupt the market structure.
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