Fundamental core driver
Weak economic data strengthens expectations of rate cuts
PPI and retail sales decline: PPI in April was -0.5% month-on-month (expected +0.2%), retail sales growth fell to 0.1% (previous value 1.7%), and manufacturing output was -0.4%, indicating an economic slowdown.
Market reaction: 10-year U.S. Treasury yields fell 11 basis points to 4.435%, and the probability of a rate cut in September rose to 75.4%.
Weak dollar: The U.S. dollar index fell 0.2% to 100.82, and the real interest rate (TIPS) fell below 1.8%, supporting gold pricing.
Geopolitical risks escalate
Russia-Ukraine deadlock: Putin refused to attend the peace talks, Zelensky called it "disrespectful", and safe-haven demand increased.
Middle East uncertainty: Differences in the Iran nuclear agreement negotiations have not been resolved, and the risk of geopolitical conflict continues.
Long-term support factors
Global central banks continue to buy gold (more than 1,000 tons in 2024), stagflation risks (high inflation + low growth), and weakening of the US dollar credit.
Key technical points
Support level:
Short-term: 3200-3210 (psychological barrier + 4H Bollinger middle track)
Medium-term: 3160 (trend line + 60-day moving average)
Resistance level:
3260-3270 (4H previous high pressure zone)
Long-term goal: 3330-3350 (gap filling + historical high)
Technical signals:
Daily MACD bottom divergence, RSI oversold rebound, short-term rebound momentum is strong.
Breaking through 3260 may start a new round of rise, and falling below 3200 may drop to 3160.
Trading strategy
Short-term (intraday to week)
Bulls:
Entry: 3200-3210 stabilizes or the US dollar index does not break 100.50.
Target: 3260-3280, stop loss below 3180.
Short:
Entry: 3260-3280 encounters resistance or the US dollar index stabilizes at 101.
Target: 3220-3200, stop loss above 3290.
Medium-term (monthly)
Bullish logic: central bank gold purchases, stagflation and geopolitical risks support.
Entry: If it falls back to 3160-3180 without breaking, build long positions in batches, stop loss 3130, target 3330-3350.
Risk control
Strict stop loss: short-term ≤2% position, medium-term ≤5%.
Event avoidance: pay attention to the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index and import price data in the United States, and reduce positions before the announcement.
Summary and risk warning
Core contradiction: short-term economic data and geopolitical risks dominate fluctuations, and the medium- and long-term structural benefits remain unchanged.
Potential risks:
Federal Reserve hawkish signals or breakthroughs in Russia-Ukraine negotiations trigger a pullback.
Technical overbought repair (short-term gains are too large).
Operation principle: light position, strict stop loss, priority attention to the breakthrough direction of the 3200-3260 range.
Key events:
US import price index and construction permit data in April.
Progress in the Russian-Ukrainian peace talks (if there is no breakthrough, safe-haven demand may heat up again).
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.