XAUUSD | GOLDSPOT | New perspective | follow-up details

Updated

After the release of encouraging US economic data recently, Gold prices are showing signs of stabilization following consecutive days of losses triggered by the hawkish tone in the Fed Meeting Minute. FOMC Minutes revealed that Fed officials are uncertain about the level of policy restrictiveness and anticipate a prolonged wait before gaining confidence in sustainable inflation moving towards 2%.

While the US Durable Goods Orders exceeded expectations, a downward revision in the prior month's figures tempered the report’s impact, emboldening Gold buyers as evidenced by a surge in trading activity before the weekend. Improved US business activity is reducing the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

Moreover, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment poll displayed a modest uptick, though inflation sentiment remained mixed.

The US 10-year Treasury note is yielding at 4.461%, experiencing a slight dip of one-and-a-half basis points on Friday, putting pressure on the US Dollar.

Geopolitical tensions escalated as China initiated a second day of military exercises near Taiwan, and the decisions by Ireland, Norway, and Spain to recognize Palestine as an independent state have added volatility to markets, potentially fueling demand for Gold.

Given these recent changes, the question looms: will buyers or sellers come out on top in this shifting landscape?

XAUUSD Technical Overview:
In this video, we take a detailed look at the XAUUSD chart, combining both technical and fundamental perspectives.

Our attention is fixed on the critical $2,350 level for the upcoming week, historically significant and poised to steer trading dynamics. A sustained momentum above this mark could fuel further buying interest, potentially paving the way for fresh highs. Conversely, a bearish tilt below $2,350 might signal a resurgence of bearish sentiment.

Join me as we break down these factors and explore potential trading opportunities in the gold market. Don't forget to like, subscribe, and hit the notification bell to stay updated with my latest analysis and insights.

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Disclaimer Notice:
Margin trading in forex, commodities, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments carries high risk and may not suit all investors. This content is for educational purposes only to assist with independent investment decisions and is provided for reference. Evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, objectives, and risk tolerance carefully. Consult an independent financial advisor before making any investments. I do not guarantee the accuracy of the information provided and am not liable for any loss or damage from its use. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trade active

The new week kicks off with a positive tone as Gold prices (XAU/USD) gain traction during the Asian session, prompting speculation about a potential rebound.

Support for Gold can be attributed to a softer US Dollar (USD) and renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have bolstered demand for the precious metal.

Looking ahead, Gold may find further support from growing demand from central banks in the long term. However, recent indications of lower expectations for a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut this year, coupled with a hawkish stance from Fed officials, could exert some downward pressure on XAU/USD. This dynamic arises as higher interest rates diminish the appeal of Gold as a store of value.

It's worth noting that trading activity may be subdued today as US banks are closed in observance of the Memorial Day bank holiday.

As we navigate today's market, the newly established levels on the chart will serve as our guiding light for trading activities. We'll remain flexible and keep all options open in response to evolving market conditions.

Good Morning.

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#XAUUSD

As discussed during our live session this morning, secure the current buy position.

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#XAUUSD

The second buy position is triggered; secure some profit now as we look out for new trading opportunities.

Trade closed manually

All buy positions have been closed, securing a minimum profit of 100 pips, as selling pressure intensified, breaking both the support line of the ascending channel [1H timeframe] and our key level for the week with an engulfing bearish candle.

While the new week initially saw a bullish start amid a softer US Dollar and safe-haven flows due to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, higher short-term Treasury yields following hawkish Fed minutes and stronger US economic data are likely to bolster the US Dollar in the near term.

Market participants are currently awaiting the release of the US Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence data today, as well as speeches from Fed officials Neel Kashkari, Mary Daly, and Lisa Cook. Additionally, the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (Core PCE) will take center stage on Friday. It's essential to note that any indications of stubborn inflation may further strengthen the USD and potentially exert selling pressure on gold prices.

For now, the levels on the chart remain valid for identifying new trading opportunities. A retest of the support line of the ascending channel or a breakdown/retest of the $2,340.50 level could present selling opportunities. Conversely, if buying pressure resumes above the week's key level at $2,350, it may signal a continuation of the uptrend. I'll continue to provide updates as the market unfolds.

Good Morning

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#XAUUSD

Secure the new buy position as selling pressure is observed.

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#XAUUSD

It is time to secure some more profit as buying traction increases to trigger another position at $2,360 level.

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#XAUUSD

All buy position closed with some profit. We shall exercise patience and see how the market reacts to the week's key level at the $2,350 and the support line of the ascending channel for new trading opportunities. A mature reversal pattern around this structure will welcome new buying opportunities. However, if price action breakdown/retest this structure we will prepare for selling opportunities.

Note

#XAUUSD

STRUCTURAL UPDATE | 15 Minute Timeframe

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UPDATE

Secure buy positions

Trade closed manually

All buy positions have been closed amid price fluctuations as the gold asset experienced minor losses. Despite escalating tensions in the Middle East and a resurgence in Indian physical Gold demand, the resurgence of the US Dollar presents a formidable challenge to Gold's upward momentum. Hawkish sentiments expressed by several Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, coupled with robust US economic data, have dampened expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, thus bolstering the US Dollar and applying downward pressure on Gold prices.

Nevertheless, amidst geopolitical uncertainties and sustained demand from central banks, the downside potential for Gold remains somewhat limited, supported by its status as a safe-haven asset.

Today's market focus will center on the release of the Fed’s Beige Book and a speech by Fed official John Williams, providing further insight into the monetary policy landscape.

Given these recent developments, we will rely on identified levels on the 1-hour timeframe as key reference points to inform our trading decisions for the day.

Good Morning

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#XAUUSD

As discussed during our live session this morning; secure the sell position now!

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#XAUUSD

STRUCTURAL UPDATE | 15 Min Timeframe

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Secure all sell positions now due to the presence of a temporary demand zone identified between $2,342 and $2,340. Despite constant attempts by sellers, the inability to breach this zone might signal potential buying opportunities. All levels on the chart remain valid for new trading opportunities. Update coming soon

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#XAUUSD

Secure all sell positions as the fourth position gets triggered

Trade closed manually

#XAUUSD

All sell positions closed as buying pressure resumes.

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The price of gold is currently experiencing renewed selling pressure below the temporary demand zone noted at $2,340 yesterday, largely due to the strengthening US Dollar. The diminishing expectation of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in September is contributing to the selling pressure.

Markets are eagerly awaiting the release of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for potential market direction today. A better-than-expected GDP reading could further bolster the US Dollar and consequently dampen gold prices.

However, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may enhance the appeal of safe-haven assets. Additionally, rising demand from central banks could limit the downside hence a breakout/retest of the descending trendline will be a signal for buying opportunities.

Good Morning

Note

#XAUUSD

UPDATE

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#XAUUSD

Buy position triggered

Trade closed manually

#XAUUSD

Position closed at break-even; we re-establish re-entry.

NB: All levels on the chart remain valid

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UPDATE

Secure buy position as GDP comes in just as expected

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With a 120 pips in profit; its time to secure some profit while we look out for new trading opportunities.

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Since the buy trigger during yesterday's session, Gold has been consolidating the previous bounce, staying within a narrow range of $2,348.50 to $2,341.50. This consolidation likely reflects market anticipation of the upcoming US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index, which is expected to provide fresh directional impetus.

If the inflation data comes in hotter than expected, it could support the US Dollar and limit gold's upside. However, we cannot ignore the geopolitical risks and conflicts in the Middle East, which might boost gold prices as it is seen as a safe-haven asset during times of geopolitical tension.

Given these developments, the structure on the 1H timeframe remains our guiding light as we await today's crucial US macroeconomic data. We will delve deeper into the current market dynamics during our live session this morning.

Good Morning

Trade active

#XAUUSD

Another buy position triggered as US Core PCE data comes in below market's expectation.

Secure position

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#XAUUSD

Secure some more profit as the bullish momentum continues.

Trade closed manually

#XAUUSD

All positions closed with a minimum of 300 pips profits. There is still more potential for the uptrend incase a reversal set-up from the current retracement is identified on lower timeframe. This will be my last update on XAUUSD today.

Happy weekend everyone!

darcsherry

Trade smart. Trade consciously

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XAUUSD | GOLDSPOT | New perspective | follow-up details

by darcsherry

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