RLinda ! GOLD-> Distribution→Accumulation→... What's next?
Gold has been surprising lately with its strong gains, renewing its August 16 high to 1786.545, which is almost 10% since early November, but a technical pullback is forming at the moment, which at the same time shows interesting things that could excite both bulls and bears.
(Chart 1. Daily timeframe of the XAUUSD chart)
Gold lost 15% from its March peak after the Fed began tightening monetary policy, but it has risen nearly 10% since early November as markets began to assess a slower pace of rate hikes.
(Chart2: Daily DXY Timeframe Technical Analysis)
(Chart3: Daily Gold Timeframe Technical Analysis)
(Chart4. Lower timeframe. Formation of bearish pattern).
On the 30 minute chart, price exits the upward price channel after a false breakdown of resistance 1765.575. The price from distributive movement moves into consolidation phase.
Also, the right shoulder pattern "Head and Shoulders" starts to form, signaling us about a possible drop in price, in case of breakdown of the pattern support.
Market sentiment is doubtful and in this case a logical outcome will be to see a pullback to the nearest support - 1726.795
Regards R. Linda!
(Chart 1. Daily timeframe of the XAUUSD chart)
- On the one hand, the futures are experiencing, U.S. economic data showing a decline in inflation, which gives the Fed an opportunity to slow tightening, which should help gold.
- On the other hand, the metal's price is affected by the Fed's caution, which does not want to change the tone of its message based on any one piece of economic material
Gold lost 15% from its March peak after the Fed began tightening monetary policy, but it has risen nearly 10% since early November as markets began to assess a slower pace of rate hikes.
(Chart2: Daily DXY Timeframe Technical Analysis)
- The DXY dollar index fell, making bullion cheaper for overseas buyers. However, the currency was still aiming for weekly gains as the Fed's tough stance put the brakes on the pullback caused by softer inflation data last week.
- But at the same time there is no strong pullback after the decline in the index, the price is forming a consolidation with locally lower daily highs. Price tends to test the daily MA-200.
- Daily RSI is trading in the red zone below the neutral line
- The daily MACD is signaling a strong bearish bias.
(Chart3: Daily Gold Timeframe Technical Analysis)
- The daily gold chart indicates a false breakout of resistance at 1765.575, but at the same time price is returning to retest the level from below.
- Price tries to test the daily MA-200, but it has to break through the resistance zone of 1765-1770 before it can advance to 1807.
- Daily RSI is showing a bearish signal
- Daily MACD is showing a bullish slowdown. Price is going into a consolidation phase.
(Chart4. Lower timeframe. Formation of bearish pattern).
On the 30 minute chart, price exits the upward price channel after a false breakdown of resistance 1765.575. The price from distributive movement moves into consolidation phase.
Also, the right shoulder pattern "Head and Shoulders" starts to form, signaling us about a possible drop in price, in case of breakdown of the pattern support.
Market sentiment is doubtful and in this case a logical outcome will be to see a pullback to the nearest support - 1726.795
Regards R. Linda!
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