Weekly analysis of the gold market: bull-bear game intensifies, pay attention to the Fed's decision and trade situation
Market Overview
In the early Asian session on Monday (May 5), spot gold rose slightly by 0.2%, trading around $3246.44/ounce. Although retail investors are optimistic about gold prices, most Wall Street institutions are bearish on gold trends this week. The market focus has shifted to the Fed's interest rate decision this week and the progress of the international trade situation. These two factors are expected to dominate the short-term gold market.
Significant divergence between bulls and bears
Institutions are mainly bearish
Kitco survey shows that 50% of 18 analysts are bearish, only 28% are bullish, and 22% expect sideways trading.
Technical indicators show that gold is trending downward in the short term. If the US dollar rebounds due to the Fed's decision, it may further suppress gold prices.
Some analysts believe that the 7% adjustment of gold from its recent high is insufficient and there is still room for decline.
Retail investors are bullish
In Kitco's online voting, 52% of retail investors are bullish, 29% are bearish, and 19% expect consolidation.
Some believe that the current correction is excessive, and gold prices may rebound if US economic data is weak or the Fed sends a dovish signal.
Analysis of key influencing factors
Federal Reserve interest rate decision (May 7)
The market generally expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged, but Powell's press conference may trigger volatility.
If the Fed's statement is hawkish, a stronger dollar may suppress gold; if economic risks are mentioned, it may boost safe-haven demand.
International trade situation
The easing of trade tensions may weaken gold's safe-haven appeal, and vice versa, it may drive gold prices up.
Be wary of the market's "knee-jerk reaction" to related news, and gold volatility may increase.
Technical key positions
Support level: $3,200 (psychological barrier), if it falls below, it may fall to the $3,150-3,000 range.
Resistance level: $3,315, only after breaking through can the downward pressure be relieved.
Summary of institutional views
Bearish view:
The adjustment of gold has not yet ended. If the trade optimism continues, the gold price may test $3,000.
The rebound of the US dollar and the rise in US bond yields may further pressure gold.
Bullish view:
The current sell-off may be a short-term phenomenon, and economic and political uncertainties still support the long-term demand for gold.
If the gold price is oversold, it may attract bargain hunting.
Neutral view:
It is expected that gold will maintain a wide range of fluctuations, and the fluctuation range is large. Investors are advised to operate with caution.
Operational suggestions
Short-term traders: Pay attention to the breakthrough of the $3,200-3,315 range and follow the trend.
Medium- and long-term investors: If the gold price falls back to the $3,000-3,150 range, consider arranging long orders in batches.
Hedging strategy: Use inverse ETFs (such as GLL and ZSL) to hedge short-term volatility risks.
Summary
The gold market is currently in a stage of long-short tug-of-war. The Fed's decision and trade trends will become the key drivers of the short-term market. The technical side is bearish, but if risk aversion rekindles or the Fed releases a dovish signal, gold prices may still rebound. Investors need to pay close attention to market dynamics and adjust their strategies flexibly.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.