XAUUSD – Gold Coiling in Rising Wedge Ahead of CPI: Breakout Imminent?
Gold (XAUUSD) is compressing within a well-defined rising wedge pattern on the 1H chart, signaling that a decisive move is near. With the U.S. CPI report due on June 12th, traders should prepare for volatility driven by macroeconomic catalysts. Whether gold breaks higher or reverses depends on how the market digests inflation data.
🌍 Macro Backdrop: All Eyes on Inflation
📌 U.S. CPI (June 12): A softer-than-expected reading could revive Fed rate cut expectations and send gold higher. A hotter-than-expected CPI could strengthen the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, putting pressure on gold.
📌 U.S.–China Trade Sentiment: Diplomatic progress in trade talks reduces safe-haven demand in the short term, weakening gold's defensive appeal.
📌 DXY & Bond Yields: A breakout in DXY or a sharp rise in U.S. bond yields post-CPI may lead to a corrective leg lower in XAUUSD.
📈 Technical Overview – Multi-Layered Structure
Pattern: Gold is forming a rising wedge between higher lows and converging highs, typical of breakout scenarios.
Fibonacci Levels (retracement from 3,400 to 3,296):
0.382: 3,336 – intermediate support
0.618: 3,360 – significant resistance, near current swing highs
Moving Averages:
Price is currently above EMA34 and EMA89
Struggling below EMA200 (red), which acts as dynamic resistance
FVG Liquidity Zone: An open Fair Value Gap between 3,360 – 3,374 could act as a magnet before any reversal.
🎯 Trade Strategy Scenarios
🟢 Buy Scenario – Bounce from Support Zone
Entry: 3314 – 3312 | Stop-Loss: 3308 | Take-Profit: 3318, 3322, 3326, 3330, 3335, 3340
Ideal if CPI comes in lower than expected or aligns with a bullish technical rejection from wedge support.
🔴 Sell Scenario – Rejection from Resistance Zone
Entry: 3374 – 3376 | Stop-Loss: 3380 | Take-Profit: 3370, 3366, 3362, 3358, 3352, 3348, 3340
Valid if price taps into the upper liquidity zone (3,374–3,394) and fails to break, especially on CPI surprise to the upside.
🧠 Tactical Conclusion
A dovish CPI → favors BUY setup off lower wedge support
A hawkish CPI → favors SELL near upper resistance and liquidity zones
📌 The market is compressing and gearing up for a breakout. Patience is key — wait for confirmation at key zones and manage risk precisely.
Gold (XAUUSD) is compressing within a well-defined rising wedge pattern on the 1H chart, signaling that a decisive move is near. With the U.S. CPI report due on June 12th, traders should prepare for volatility driven by macroeconomic catalysts. Whether gold breaks higher or reverses depends on how the market digests inflation data.
🌍 Macro Backdrop: All Eyes on Inflation
📌 U.S. CPI (June 12): A softer-than-expected reading could revive Fed rate cut expectations and send gold higher. A hotter-than-expected CPI could strengthen the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, putting pressure on gold.
📌 U.S.–China Trade Sentiment: Diplomatic progress in trade talks reduces safe-haven demand in the short term, weakening gold's defensive appeal.
📌 DXY & Bond Yields: A breakout in DXY or a sharp rise in U.S. bond yields post-CPI may lead to a corrective leg lower in XAUUSD.
📈 Technical Overview – Multi-Layered Structure
Pattern: Gold is forming a rising wedge between higher lows and converging highs, typical of breakout scenarios.
Fibonacci Levels (retracement from 3,400 to 3,296):
0.382: 3,336 – intermediate support
0.618: 3,360 – significant resistance, near current swing highs
Moving Averages:
Price is currently above EMA34 and EMA89
Struggling below EMA200 (red), which acts as dynamic resistance
FVG Liquidity Zone: An open Fair Value Gap between 3,360 – 3,374 could act as a magnet before any reversal.
🎯 Trade Strategy Scenarios
🟢 Buy Scenario – Bounce from Support Zone
Entry: 3314 – 3312 | Stop-Loss: 3308 | Take-Profit: 3318, 3322, 3326, 3330, 3335, 3340
Ideal if CPI comes in lower than expected or aligns with a bullish technical rejection from wedge support.
🔴 Sell Scenario – Rejection from Resistance Zone
Entry: 3374 – 3376 | Stop-Loss: 3380 | Take-Profit: 3370, 3366, 3362, 3358, 3352, 3348, 3340
Valid if price taps into the upper liquidity zone (3,374–3,394) and fails to break, especially on CPI surprise to the upside.
🧠 Tactical Conclusion
A dovish CPI → favors BUY setup off lower wedge support
A hawkish CPI → favors SELL near upper resistance and liquidity zones
📌 The market is compressing and gearing up for a breakout. Patience is key — wait for confirmation at key zones and manage risk precisely.
Trade active
100 PIPS SECURED IN THE ASIAN SESSION – PRECISION FROM A SINGLE PRICE ZONE!The SELL zone at 3374 – 3376, highlighted in yesterday’s trading plan, delivered exactly as expected. During the Asian session this morning, price reacted cleanly at the resistance area and reversed sharply — resulting in a solid 100-pip gain within just a few hours.
This wasn’t a lucky guess — it was a product of:
📉 A well-structured technical setup
🧠 Thoughtful macro analysis ahead of the CPI release
📊 A clearly defined entry plan — no speculation involved
📌 See the detailed price action and live results here:
👉
Trading isn’t about taking more trades.
It’s about taking the right one — one zone, one setup, one clean result.
⚜️ Trade with Money Market Flow, logic, Price action 📉📈
⚜️Risk Reward 1.3 to 2.5...
⚜️Daily 8 to 15 Signals Vip
⚜️Risk Reward 1.3 to 2.5...
⚜️Daily 8 to 15 Signals Vip
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
⚜️ Trade with Money Market Flow, logic, Price action 📉📈
⚜️Risk Reward 1.3 to 2.5...
⚜️Daily 8 to 15 Signals Vip
⚜️Risk Reward 1.3 to 2.5...
⚜️Daily 8 to 15 Signals Vip
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.