XAUUSD | GOLDSPOT | New perspective | follow-up details
Updated
Last week, Gold attempted to extend its decline as the USD gained strength following the release of the United States annual core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for March. This data exceeded expectations, with the annual underlying inflation rate accelerating to 2.7% from the projected 2.6%, albeit slower than the 2.8% recorded in February.
The robust inflation figures dampened Gold's attractiveness as they dampened expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts in the upcoming September monetary policy meeting. Traders responded by scaling back their bets on Fed rate cuts, influenced by the persistently high GDP Price Index, which surged to 3.1% from the previous 1.7%.
According to the CME Fedwatch tool, the probability of a rate cut in September now stands at 59%, down from 69% just a week ago.
Given these developments, the outlook for Gold in the coming week remains uncertain, especially with several high-impact events on the horizon. How will Gold prices fare amidst these significant economic indicators?
XAUUSD Technical Overview:
In this video, we conducted a thorough analysis of the XAUUSD chart, integrating both technical and fundamental perspectives. Our analysis delved into key levels, historical price movements, market dynamics, and the interaction between buyers and sellers, intending to identify potential trading opportunities.
Our focus for the upcoming week centres around the $2,350 zone, which holds significant historical importance and is poised to influence next week's trading activity significantly. Sustained bullish momentum above this level could fuel continued buying interest, potentially driving prices to new highs. Conversely, a breach below the $2,350 level, accompanied by ongoing selling pressure, may indicate a resurgence of bearish sentiment.
#GoldMarket #SafeHavenAssets 📺🔔💼
Disclaimer Notice:
Please be aware that margin trading in the foreign exchange market, including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculative material, including all data, is provided by me for educational purposes only and to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not assume any responsibility for its accuracy.
It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances.
Please note that I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information provided, and I am not liable for any loss or damage that may directly or indirectly result from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications associated with it.
Remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Keep this in mind while considering any investment opportunities.
The robust inflation figures dampened Gold's attractiveness as they dampened expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts in the upcoming September monetary policy meeting. Traders responded by scaling back their bets on Fed rate cuts, influenced by the persistently high GDP Price Index, which surged to 3.1% from the previous 1.7%.
According to the CME Fedwatch tool, the probability of a rate cut in September now stands at 59%, down from 69% just a week ago.
Given these developments, the outlook for Gold in the coming week remains uncertain, especially with several high-impact events on the horizon. How will Gold prices fare amidst these significant economic indicators?
XAUUSD Technical Overview:
In this video, we conducted a thorough analysis of the XAUUSD chart, integrating both technical and fundamental perspectives. Our analysis delved into key levels, historical price movements, market dynamics, and the interaction between buyers and sellers, intending to identify potential trading opportunities.
Our focus for the upcoming week centres around the $2,350 zone, which holds significant historical importance and is poised to influence next week's trading activity significantly. Sustained bullish momentum above this level could fuel continued buying interest, potentially driving prices to new highs. Conversely, a breach below the $2,350 level, accompanied by ongoing selling pressure, may indicate a resurgence of bearish sentiment.
#GoldMarket #SafeHavenAssets 📺🔔💼
Disclaimer Notice:
Please be aware that margin trading in the foreign exchange market, including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculative material, including all data, is provided by me for educational purposes only and to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not assume any responsibility for its accuracy.
It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances.
Please note that I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information provided, and I am not liable for any loss or damage that may directly or indirectly result from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications associated with it.
Remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Keep this in mind while considering any investment opportunities.
Trade active
The new trading week commenced with a breakdown and retest pattern of the downtrend continuation pattern highlighted in the video, signalling a bearish tone. Gold prices (XAU/USD) encountered resistance during the Asian session amid a resurgence in demand for the US Dollar (USD) and prevailing risk-on sentiment, particularly in light of thinned market conditions due to a Japanese holiday.The release of the US Core PCE data on Friday reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain higher interest rates for an extended period. This anticipation is prompting capital flows away from non-yielding assets like gold. Furthermore, a positive sentiment surrounding equity markets is adding to the downward pressure on the price of gold.
However, it's essential to note that the overall market sentiment remains bullish. The extent of the bearish move may be limited as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East show no signs of de-escalation.
Over the past 9 hours of trading, a rangebound structure has been identified on the 1-hour timeframe, providing a framework for our trading activities today. We'll closely monitor this structure to guide our decisions throughout the session.
Good Morning.
Trade active
UPDATENote
#XAUUSDBuy position closed at break-even; levels on the chart remain valid.
Trade active
Following our exit from the buy position at break-even, a new sell position has been initiated below the $2,320 level in the Gold market (XAU/USD). Gold prices continue to face downward pressure as market sentiment shifts towards the belief that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will postpone interest rate cuts due to persistent inflation concerns, reinforced by Friday's release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. Expectations of a hawkish Fed stance are reviving demand for the US Dollar (USD), prompting capital outflows from non-yielding assets.While the tone in US equity futures is marginally softer and geopolitical tensions persist in the Middle East, these factors may limit the downside for gold prices. Traders are likely to exercise caution and refrain from aggressive positioning ahead of the upcoming Interest Rate Decision and key US economic data, notably the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.
In light of these considerations, it is advisable to remain vigilant and be prepared to adjust stop-loss levels accordingly as market dynamics evolve.
Good Morning
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STRUCTURAL UPDATESecure some profit
Trade active
Two sell positions triggered; secure some profitTrade active
STRUCTURAL UPDATETrade active
Secure some profit as the third position gets triggeredTrade active
With five active sell positions, we've amassed a total profit of over 800 pips, with price action encountering support around the $2,283 zone during the Asian session. Ahead of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy meeting later today, market sentiment appears cautious. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI and ADP Employment Change reports are also scheduled for release.The Fed is widely expected to maintain interest rates at their current levels and uphold its hawkish stance. Expectations for Fed easing have been pushed back, with the likelihood of a rate cut in June dropping to approximately 10% and the probability of September rate cuts falling below 75%, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool. Investors will closely scrutinize the Press Conference following the Fed meeting for further guidance. A hawkish tone from the Fed may bolster the US Dollar and diminish the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold.
Given the prevailing market conditions, it is prudent to secure additional profit from our open positions while remaining attentive to chart levels for potential new trading opportunities.
Good Morning
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STRUCTURAL UPDATE | 15 MinutesAs discussed during our live session; buying opportunities will ONLY be validated by structural confirmation.
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Secure positionTrade active
#XAUUSDUPDATE
Two buy positions now triggered; secure positions
Note
STRUCTURAL UPDATETrade active
Secure all positions now as volatility is expected following an impressive ADP employment dataTrade active
A total of over 450 pips profit from four buy positions; secure some profit as we look out for new trading opportunities.Trade closed manually
#XAUUSDAll buy positions closed
Note
#XAUUSDNew structure found on 15 Minutes timeframe as the ascending trendline will be our guiding light for this moment on.
Note
On the 15-minute timeframe, a descending channel is evident as Gold price consolidates following yesterday's rebound. This consolidation appears to stem from market participants digesting the implications of the recent US Federal Reserve interest rate decision and Chair Jerome Powell's speeches.The Federal Reserve's indication of a desire to gain greater confidence in sustained inflation decline before considering rate cuts has sparked a fresh increase in US Treasury bond yields, providing a tailwind for the US Dollar (USD). Despite persistent inflation concerns, Powell dismissed the possibility of further interest rate hikes. This, coupled with repeated failures to breach the $2,310 support level, may deter traders from aggressive bearish positioning and offer some support to Gold prices.
As we navigate the market, the chart levels remain pertinent in guiding our decisions. Buyers are expected to await additional employment and wage inflation data from the United States before seeking fresh trading impetus. We'll continue to monitor these developments closely using the structures on the chart.
Good Morning
Trade active
Sell position triggered; secure positionTrade active
UPDATESecure some profit
Trade active
#XAUUSDSecure some profit
Trade closed manually
After the sell position is closed in profit; price action has evolved into a potential reversal pattern in favour of the buyers as the price remained locked above the psychological $2,300 zone ahead of the all-important NFP data coming up tomorrow. The newly identified set-up on the 15-minute timeframe will guide bullish opportunities.Note
Gold continues to hover around the $2,300 zone, with buyers struggling to gather significant momentum, resulting in tight trading within a narrow channel between $2,308 and $2,291. Despite a less hawkish outlook from the Federal Reserve (Fed), investors remain convinced that any rate-cutting actions by the US central bank will likely commence in September or the fourth quarter. This sentiment, coupled with an overall positive risk appetite, acts as an obstacle or resistance to the upward movement of the safe-haven appeal such as gold.Fed Chair's dismissal of further interest rate hikes has contributed to downward pressure on the US Dollar (USD), potentially offering some support to the price of gold.
As we await the release of today's US monthly employment data, market participants will seek insights into the Fed's future rate-cutting trajectory before making significant trading decisions. Our chart levels will guide navigating the current market dynamics, and we'll delve deeper into this during our upcoming live session. See you soon!
Good Morning
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