Analysis of the latest gold trend on January 22
On Wednesday (January 22), spot gold fluctuated in a narrow range at a high level in the Asian session, currently trading around $2,751/ounce. Gold prices rose 1.39% on Tuesday, jumping to a more than two-month high of $2,745.83/ounce and closing at $2,744.59/ounce, supported by a weaker dollar. Under the uncertainty of possible tariffs imposed by US President Trump, the market flocked to safe-haven gold. The U.S. dollar index fell back after its rebound on Tuesday was blocked. It once refreshed a two-week low to 107.86 during the session and closed down 0.12% at 107.94, making gold cheaper for holders of other currencies. Affected by Trump's tariff threats, investors flocked to safe-haven assets such as gold, and the US dollar's highs and declines, US Treasury yields plummeted, and gold prices soared to their highest point in more than two months. US President Trump also said on Tuesday that he might impose sanctions on Russia if Russian President Vladimir Putin refused to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine. This also provided safe-haven support for gold prices. Trump did not disclose specific details of possible additional sanctions. The United States has imposed severe sanctions on Russia since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Trump said his administration is also looking into sending weapons to Ukraine and said he believes the European Union should do more to support Ukraine. In early Asian trading on Wednesday, Trump said he would impose tariffs on the European Union. Affected by this news, the euro had a short-term dive of about 30 points, and the price of gold did not fluctuate much in the short term, but investors need to pay attention to the further fermentation of market sentiment.
Gold is considered a safe investment in times of economic and geopolitical uncertainty, but the policies proposed by Trump are widely seen as inflationary, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates for a longer period of time to curb price pressures. It is expected that Trump's extensive trade tariffs will further stimulate inflation and trigger a trade war, which may increase the safe-haven appeal of gold. The market may also be waiting for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the Federal Reserve next week and the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index, especially the inflation data. I don't think anyone is expecting the Fed to take any action next week, but will certainly be watching the policy statement closely for hints about the rest of the year. "Analysts say Trump's immigration, tax and tariff policies may boost economic growth but also spur inflation. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates steady this month but remain vigilant against inflation. According to calculations by the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by about 38 basis points this year and may resume cutting interest rates at the June meeting. There are relatively few economic data on this trading day. Continue to pay attention to Trump-related dynamic news and changes in market sentiment, and pay attention to the Davos Economic Forum and the speech of European Central Bank President Lagarde.
Gold technical analysis: The recent trend of gold has continued to fluctuate and rise, and the high and low points can be switched flexibly. At present, the gold price has once again refreshed the high of 2750 in early Asian trading. Gold has started a new round of rise. The daily positive line of gold closed higher, breaking the recent The upper track of 2725 in the wide range hit another high point this week. As the daily line consolidates, it rises again after pulling Yang. The daily line has further momentum to reach higher levels. Yesterday, it fell back to the lowest level of 2702 and started to rise steadily. In line with expectations of an immediate rise in the Asian market yesterday. It's just that the upside space has been increased after a direct breakthrough. Yesterday, it was also emphasized that the bulls will look further if it breaks through 2725. At the same time, when it is confirmed by stepping back, it will be a second opportunity to enter the long position. The higher closing price on the daily line will drive further short-term gains during the day.
The 4-hour chart is running in the ascending channel. In the strong unilateral market, the middle track of Bollinger Bands moves upward as the critical point for bulls. Combined with the support of breaking the high point of 2726 and the retracement of the 2716 line after breaking the high yesterday, the price started to stabilize for the second time. This is the defensive critical point of the bulls. The strong market will not be stepped on deeply, and the breaking high conversion point of the previous day will not be lost. The bulls will still maintain their momentum. From the perspective of the 1-hour structure, the bullish trend remains good, and the adjustment is also a short-term behavior. The general direction is still continuing to rise, especially after breaking through 2730 US dollars, the European session on Tuesday quickly fell back to below 2720 to complete the top and bottom conversion. The focus after today's retracement is on the position of 2738-2742, which is also the retracement of the previous high point. The European session should also pay attention to the retracement confirmation.
From the perspective of time, since the 21st trading day of gold's rebound from 2583, that is, Monday this week, the change of the market has not been successful, then the next change of the market time node will focus on next Friday, which is the 55th trading day of the rise of 2536. Therefore, in terms of operation, gold is now entering a stage of accelerated rise. Today, our professional and senior gold analyst team recommends buying with the trend near 2740, and the upper target is further up to 2765-2770 area!
Taken together, in terms of today's short-term gold operation ideas, our professional and experienced gold analyst team recommends to focus on longs on callbacks, supplemented by shorts on rebounds. The top short-term focus is on the first-line resistance near 2765, and the bottom short-term focus is on the first-line support of 2738-2742.
Trade active
Analysis of the latest trend of gold market:
Analysis of gold news: Spot gold maintained a mild decline in the European market on Thursday (January 23). Gold prices hit a three-month high of $2,763/oz on Wednesday, as attention turned to U.S. fundamentals, including U.S. initial jobless claims data. Gold traders are preparing for a series of top U.S. economic data scheduled for release on Thursday, which will provide new clues to the Fed's interest rate cut prospects this year. Friday's preliminary reading of the S&P Global U.S. Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) will provide insight into the state of the economy. Weak U.S. economic data will further increase expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates twice this year. The mild inflation report for December released last week rekindled expectations of two rate cuts this year. It is worth noting that U.S. President Trump's tariff negotiations will continue to drive risk sentiment, the U.S. dollar and gold prices, while the influence of U.S. data may rank second. As investors await further instructions from the new Trump administration on potential tax cuts and trade policies. Gold prices remain near their highest levels since October as investors consider the impact President Trump's latest tariff threats on China and the European Union could have on the global economy.
Gold technical analysis: Gold did not fluctuate much overall yesterday because of strong resistance near 2763 above. It stabilized near 2741 in early Asian trading, and fell back after reaching a high of 2763. The daily line finally closed with a long shadow positive line. Gold's recent breakthrough and rise is nothing more than the result of tariff hedging. Since January 17, we have seen that ETFs have also increased their holdings of 10 tons of gold, implying that they are preventing risk hedging. However, after Tuesday, they reduced their holdings by 11 tons for two consecutive days, indicating that the main force has gradually cashed in after the rise. The exit also shows that the space above 2765 is limited in the later period. In the early stage, 2790 fell to the 2530 area in two weeks, indicating that the pressure above is obvious. If it touches this area again for the second time, it will not directly break through. There will be more adjustments to fall at any time. No need If 200 US dollars falls, a half discount means an adjustment of 100 US dollars, and it cannot catch up with 2765. Therefore, today's breakthrough for the third day is also the key to the long and short market changes. The maximum range of 30 US dollars above 2765 may not be able to go up at all, but If it falls, it is easy to fall above 100 US dollars, so this area is bullish and not chasing long. Compared with historical highs, the amplitude and intensity of shocks increase. As long as you don't chase the rise and kill the fall, you can basically make a profit by controlling your position and shorting. .
Today, gold is adjusted to be bearish, and the market may fall back at any time. The current pressure above is maintained at the 2760 line. This position is also the position that has been under pressure for a long time after breaking through in the early Asian morning. Therefore, we can continue to short around 2760 during the day. We cannot rebound too high. In the short term, it is likely to consume our patience. , then gold will be shorted directly at 2755-58 during the day, with the target near 2745-2735.
Overall, our professional gold analyst team recommends shorting on rebounds as the main strategy for short-term gold operations today, and long on pullbacks as the auxiliary strategy. The upper short-term focus is on the 2760-2765 resistance line, and the lower short-term focus is on the 2730-2725 support line.
Trade closed: target reached
The gold market maintained sideways consolidation after the Asian opening yesterday, and then experienced a rapid retracement during the European session. The trend continued during the US session, falling to around 2735 at one point, but then quickly rebounded, continuing to demonstrate its previous strong upward pattern. By this morning in Asia, gold prices rose again, reaching a high of around 2778, and the current bullish force is still strong. The moving average system presents a bullish arrangement, indicating that gold prices are expected to rise further and even reach a record high.
Gold prices fell in the Asian session on Thursday and continued in the European session. They rebounded before the US session to attract bulls, and then fell rapidly from 2750 to around US$2735, completing this short-term adjustment and becoming cautious in the continuous rising market. Although the bulls still show the resilience of the reversal after the correction, everyone still needs to remain calm in the face of the pressure of the historical high. At present, we are trying to arrange transactions and adopt a short-term strategy. Pay attention to the strong resistance of 2785 on the top and the strong support of 2752 on the bottom. Our professional and senior gold analyst team recommends high-altitude operation as the main and low-long operation as the auxiliary. Operate within the range.
Operation strategy 1: It is recommended to go short when the price rebounds to 2785, stop loss at 2795, and target at 2770-2765.
Operation strategy 2: It is recommended to go long when the price falls back to 2760, stop loss at 2750, and target at 2773-2780.
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