Unstoppable, GOLD could rise in Big Data Week

XAUUSD markets maintained solid gains in the initial reaction to higher-than-expected inflation data, with XAUUSD surging to a record high as investors flocked to the safe-haven asset amid concerns that US President Donald Trump’s latest tariffs will spark a global trade war. It is now up more than 17% for the quarter, which would be its best quarterly performance since 1986.

PCE data slightly exceeds expectations, but has limited impact on rate cut expectations
Data showed that the US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.4% month-on-month in February, above market expectations of 0.3% and in line with January.
While inflation data was somewhat upbeat, it was not enough to significantly change market expectations for a Fed rate cut.
The Fed has yet to adjust its policy rate this year, having previously cut rates three times through 2024. Markets now expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by a total of 63 basis points starting in July this year, and could start cutting rates by 50 basis points by mid-year.
Gold is traditionally a safe-haven asset that performs well in an environment of political and economic risk and low interest rate expectations.

Trump is about to announce "reciprocal tariffs", and the market is very wary of inflation and growth risks
The market is closely watching the Trump administration's plan to announce "reciprocal tariffs" on April 2. Trump's policies have the effect of promoting inflation, not only increasing the risk of economic recession, but also may exacerbate global trade tensions.
This is beneficial for gold prices!

Looking ahead to next week, in addition to the technical upside and current support for gold, gold prices remain well supported as US economic data continues to highlight slowing growth. Next week’s jobs data is expected to be a significant mover. Any weakness in the labor market could weigh on equities and boost safe-haven demand for gold.
Therefore, as usual, the employment data will be the focus of the economic calendar next week, and more detailed analysis will be sent to readers in the next editions. In particular, along with the economic data, traders also need to monitor how the world reacts to the implementation of US trade tariffs, which are expected to take effect on April 2. This will deeply affect the US Dollar and the price of gold, any risk of escalating tariff conflicts will cause gold prices to increase immediately.

Economic Data to Watch Next Week
Tuesday: US ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Jobs Open
Wednesday: US Global Tariffs, ADP Nonfarm Payrolls
Thursday: US Weekly Jobless Claims, ISM Services PMI
Friday: US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)

GOLD breaks and refreshes All-Time High, on PCE Data day

Note

Gold has continued to be a shining investment channel since the beginning of 2025. According to analysts, gold has easily surpassed the $3,000/ounce threshold, even approaching the $3,100/ounce mark. Demand for gold remains very strong from central banks, Chinese consumers, and North American investors - especially from the US, where the potential is still untapped.

Note

Gold price exceeds $3,100/oz

Note

🚨 Gold prices continued to attract safe-haven flows for the third consecutive day due to rising trade tensions.

Note

Gold prices fluctuate around $3,135/oz

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