Short

12 MONTH BASIS WITH SUPER DETAILING #12, START OF $1000 RETRACE

All the details necessary to understand this draft, I have written in closing notes of DRAFT #11 (previous draft). On an ALL TIME BASIS, it's not obvious top is in. However, the record high volumes (across all markets, or otherwise understood as cross-market volatility) has me convinced that top is in and we are going down to 2163 BY SEPTEMBER 26TH. All that said, price MUST STILL RESOLVE THE ABSOLUTELY BULLISH POSTURE BY FOLLOWING RED ROUTE IN CHART ABOVE with 2 outstanding requirements:

1) make it down to 2975 or less (as deep as UNDER 2955) by London open on Tuesday
2) make it back up to 3115 or more ( as high as 3131) by London open on Wednesday

At this point, it IS STILL NOT OBVIOUS PRICE WILL WILL GO DOWN, but that's enough to resolve the 2-way vol for a crushing 550 point drop to 2580 (3130-2580=550) BY NEW YORK SESSION ON MONDAY APRIL 28TH.

AS USUAL, WILL ADD MORE WITH TIME.

Note

Note

9:55 PM ET, for the record...
1) SP 500 topped first on 2/19 and is now in bear market
2) has not filled the gap down despite gold now above Fri close
3) and gold topped 4/2
4) so what is obvious ???
5) spx trend still DOMINATING

Note

6) so I feel pretty good about this thesis
7) with two things worth saying:
A) IF THERE IS A DOWN SHIFT, that means FASTER TO FLOOR
B) June is already at 2400, faster MEANS JUNE BOTTOM

Note

8) which was basically this route before...
9) I changed it to September
10) what that also means full recovery by
11) end of year

Note

1) Rajid asked me about why I went from long to short...
2) bc spx trend was dominating
3) I have first clue that sp 500 MAY HAVE BOTTOMED
4) so what does that mean?
5) blue route to 3777

Note

6) but THIS IS DEPENDENT ON SPX CALMING DOWN
7) I have 1st clue only, NOT SOLID EVIDENCE
8) so be aware

Note

04/08 - 8:06 AM ET. Much was revealed yesterday between VIX, ES, GC and by extension SI.
1) will write a lot today to update everything
2) dont have time for another 2 hours
3) but basically, VIX-gold rejected by dollar liquidity requirements
4) so we are AN EVEN MORE BEARISH RED ROUTE TO JUNE
5) and time is almost out for bulls to change this
6) bc all likely bull routes are dead except one

Note

4) so the drafted blue hi-lights were in anticipation of a market-wide bounce
5) THAT IS OBVIOUSLY NOT WHAT WE HAVE:

Note

6) chart above left side is gold that has rejected blue route
7) and the 3115-3131 ceiling now looks like 3072 AT BEST
8) AND IT'S NOT AT ALL OBVIOUS THAT PRICE CAN GET ABOVE 3037
9) meanwhile, SPX trades 5288 OR 9.44 % OFF THE LOW STILL UNDER 5400 limit
10) that price needs to get furiously above to destroy the super bearish setup
11) gold is trading 3013 as is PAST DUE FOR ITS BOUNCE UP
12) meaning as of right now, there's simply no reason at all to expect gold to
13) turn bullishly and get out of this crash setup to June
14) SURE VIX 60 is good for a bottom in the S&P 500, but that's A BOTTOM, NOT THE BOTTOM
15) there's no evidence yet to say that this 9.4% bounce is anything more than a technical bounce

Note

16) in chart above, this idea that VIX 60 means we are in the clear?
17) I need to see SP 500 above 5500, AND HOLD TO MAY
18) to take this idea seriously
19) so after thorough examination of what has happened
20) the base case looked like where I go to at the near the end of DRAFT 11
21) that is gold furious crash to mid June

Note

22) I am out of time to comment a lot on silver
23) so let me say this, there's 4 levels silver is aiming for
24) $21, $18, and $14.40 are the most obvious
25) under 14.40 I cannot see how $11.55 COVID LOW CAN HOLD
26) and that means $9.20 silver
27) whatever it's going to be, I only have enough time to focus on gold and comment on S&P 500
28) I will pick up silver when it needs to be picked to up
29) AND NOW IS NOT THE TIME

Note

ON THE OTHER HAND....
1) I just started new work I accepted last week
2) despite the important situation happening in financial markets
3) I could care less because interest in my work is not growing
4) so with each passing day, I do not have reasons to keep this up
5) so if you are reading this and interested in my work
6) join my group and tell how to continue doing this
7) have a good one

Note

12:04 PM ET, so that bounce doesn't seem like it's coign
1) so in chart above it's not going to look like that
2) I think more like this, I am just not done with drafting:

Note

12:37 PM ET, it looks like STRAIGHT TO 2790 from here
3) that's what I see
4) I have no time to add any more

Note

3:51 PM TUESDAY WRAP UP, WHERE WE ARE NOW:
1) so red route in chart at top is DRAFT 12 you are reading...
2) with SEPTEMBER LOW was reasonable route
3) when I first drafted, I drafted it in black here from notes in DRAFT 11:

Note

4) we are much closer to original draft only except worse:

Note

5) in chart above there are five arrows
6) we are at first arrow, the break of 2950
7) which leads to 2780 THIS TIME NEXT WEEK
8) that's the second arrow arrow which will slow the move for a bit
9) before heading for what should be 2400-2500
10) somewhere in there, so let's just say 2450, bc 2400 seems a bit deep
11) and that by MAY 7TH, and today is APRIL 8TH
12) that's a wrap

Note

13) in the meantime, S&P500 has surrendered 300 points since the 5310+ high this morning
14) now trading 5010-ish as I type

Note

15) 7:42 PM ET, I am not sure it will take that long
16) I do not have good reasons why it's not this week

Note

17) meanwhile gold trades 2973 in Tokyo as I type
18) and the last bull route is disappearing right now
19) especially if bears make it under 2952

Note

6:43 AM so with treasury market signaling liquidation
1) everything screams incoming liquidity crisis
2) but price is spending too much time above 3037
3) the next move should be drop under 2920
4) but bears only have about 6 hours before odds go to 50/50
5) between crash and sideways for 2-3 days

Note

6) if I read everything together, the call is incoming crash
7) but price has to respect trend, so above 3055 means wait it out

Note

12:35 PM, I don't have enough time to do this right.
1) there's several diametrically opposite things going on
2) and I can't call this right doing it part time
3) and full time service will not come close to my earnings
4) so the right thing to do is to stop
5) but let's wrap this up right

Note

1) replay chart at top
2) it's still a weaker red

Note

04/09, 12:41 AM, 3122.65 after scratching 3131...

Note

1) I'm going to give you my entire thoughts on this
2) but first replay chart at top
3) AND THEN READ THE INTRO including the first chart after I said "will add with time"
4) be aware that SPX is trading 5450-ish as I type with another furious spike today after
5) Trump's 90-day extension whatever+125% China tariffs
6) and please be aware of what this means vs what Trump is trying to do
7) ultimately there are two outcomes here and they are both in chart at top
8) and I do not know how to call this because the last two surprise moves
9) both originated from Trump himself
10) and ultimately I can only call it if I dedicate myself fulltime
11) and that I cannot do because my time has been bought and paid for

Note

12) but what can be said is that if bear route is true, it MUST BE STRAIGHT DOWN FROM HERE
13) because bears have fulfilled the two conditions I named in chart at top
14) so they are totally setup for their move down but must move soon
15) long story short, if they are going to do it, it should be entirely obvious
16) and run along red route in chart at top down before exceeding it
17) the other outcome is blue route in chart at top
18) and starts out as I illustrated in the beginning of the notes

Note

19) pretty much in a day or two, this will be settled

7 days ago

Note

12:06 AM ET 04-12-25, WHAT NOW?
1) if you remember, our very first target for 4-11 high
2) was 3250 area before getting moved up and down
3) so what now?
4) we are in a liquidity crisis
5) but gold has not completed its structure
6) and it's blowing off vertically
7) because it doesn't have any time left
8) so what finishes a blow off?
9) a blow off's blow off is my only idea here
10) you have to look at the 5 year chart to get what I mean
11) there are no logical moves here except wave completion
12) which means 300 more
13) so?
14) 3500-3550
15) but the tops top must be the fastest
16) so we go 300 from Tues night to Friday
17) that means the top should be THIS COMING TUESDAY

7 days ago

Note

18) but this route requires breaking 3251 quickly and convincingly
19) there cannot be stalling in this area
20) why?
21) because price does not jump 10% in 3 days and then stall

7 days ago

Note

22) stalling would mean retest of 3165 and it would get very ugly soon after
23) all these calls of gold to the sky...
24) zoom out to 10 year chart, it's already AT THE SKY
25) so be aware

6 days ago

Note

Sunday, 4/13, 5:35 PM ET, I have really strong conviction that price has 2 weeks to top.
1) the singular question here is how high
2) it's 3251-3607, favoring 3440-3570
3) the quickest top would be TODAY, followed by Tuesday
4) if a top is not obvious by Tuesday
5) then the next date would be Sunday 4/27

6 days ago

Note

6) the specific levels of this top are 3250, 3380, 3480, and 3580
7) with none being specifically favorable
8) we just go one by one
9) so in 4 days we know if it's 3251 or HIGHER

6 days ago

Note

04/13/25, 9:09 PM ET, 3220.XX and I have it solved...
a) there are two things going on
b) first, there IS A LIQUIDITY PROBLEM, this we know
c) but size definitely matters
d) second, this TOTAL bifurcation of U.S.-China trade
e) is going to unleash gargantuan inflation globally, but no doubt concentration in USD
f) and recession odds rises ALONG WITH A DISCUSSION OF HYPERINFLATION
g) so?

6 days ago

Note

h) THERE IS GOING TO BE A TOP BY 4/28
i) but it's not THE top
j) WHATEVER THE SELL OFF AFTER THAT MAYBE

6 days ago

Note

k) a while ago, when price broke straight through 2790...
j) I had written about several different outcomes
k) the VERY FIRST of which was 4900, or 46xx-51xx
l) AT NO TIME DID I EVER TAKE IT SERIOUSLY
m) because every time I raised targets above 3750-3850, it got shot down
n) well now even UBS, Goldman, JP Morgan, the big banks all agree
o) there are two ceilings 4500 is on the table end of this year or
p) beginning of 2026
q) so?

6 days ago

Note

r) we are now in a new world, with hyperflation and liquidity breaks
s) so we WILL GET GIANT RALLIES
t) but 2-way vol will also explode
u) meaning? 200-300 point swings is par for the course
v) good luck!

6 days ago

Note

x) and oh yeah, a call for MAY 9TH high?
y) 3600 on 5/09/25
z) but that's ONLY HALF WAY ...

6 days ago

Note

9:57 PM ET... so my high ceiling for FEB 2026 was 5400 but let's call it right now..
1) 5555 by valentines day 2026
2) this target solves all the patterns of this rally
3) and more importantly, THE FUNDAMENTALS SUPPORT IT

6 days ago

Note

11:40 PM ET, 04/13, let's wrap this up:
1) so MAY 2 is NFP
2) and MAY 7 is FOMC
3) so PRE-MAY 7 HIGH is capped 3420 because ....
4) odds do not favor a super strong trend to crush both those events
5) what this means is that the big banks have it right 4500 end of year
6) but my call of 5555 gets cut to 5000 by Valentine's Day 2026
7) that's a wrap OF EVERYTHING HERE PERIOD
8) there's nothing more worth saying for me here or otherwise
9) and why?
10) because GLD calls equivalence for 3800 pays barely 5:1 in January 2026
11) and gold is only 3232 as I type
12) I would've thought that call would pay 100 to 200 to 1
13) that means NOBODY IS GETTING CAUGHT OFFGUARD
14) have a good life

4 days ago

Note

04-15-25. 10:09 ET: LIQUIDITY WARNING THIRD SCENARIO
1) there is a third scenario that currently is in play
2) that starts with a move to under 2600 or less
3) and then finishes the run to valentines day 2026
4) that would mean 2600 OR LESS BY 6.18
5) AND THEN...

4 days ago

Note

6) running to to 4600-4800
7) as the next rally
8) it's just not obvious when this run would actually finish
9) this has to do with current sp500 and silver position
10) this is the most difficult route to call
11) as the driver for price action would be la liquidity crisis
12) it would start would a gold move under 3000

4 days ago

Note

13) I will add some notes soon to comment on this fluid situation
14) the question is what matters more?
15) when u.s. China decouples completely?
16) does the liquidity problems matter more?
17) especially at the edge of recession?
18) or the resulting hyperinflationary wave?
19) when both can happen simultaneously

4 days ago

Note

04/15/25, 11:04 AM ET, so this morning I bought late June GC puts
1) and my singular hard stop is 3252
2) while I work on this some

4 days ago

Note

4 days ago

Note

4/15, 1:10 PM, in chart above, that's gold 4-day vs silver and s&p 500 for 6 months
a) silver and spx are in the same pattern on different scales
b) why I do not know...
c) but the only chart is strong is gold IF GOLD SURVIVES NEXT 76 hours
d) which is now to end of this Friday
e) I said earlier that my stop is on this new short is 3252
f) well price has not move, but I need bears to close the door on the 3325 spike
g) I'll add more when I have time

4 days ago

Note

h) meanwhile:

4 days ago

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4 days ago

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1) if it's gonna go, it has to go like that
2) with the question marks for silver (red), if shouldn't be weaker
3) and for SP 500 (blue) as well
4) I have a really hard time seeing gold saving the day here
5) it's bear curve is not quite as steep as I thought earlier but
6) not that much different:

4 days ago

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4 days ago

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4 days ago

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3 days ago

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9:22 PM ET, 04.16.25, THIS I POSTED AT THE BEGINNING:

1) so chart above vs...
2) what happened in chart below

3 days ago

Note

3 days ago

Note

3) so we took the long way to 3350 zone
4) bc that blue route had it several days faster
5) so what now?
6) now comes the decision for WHICH TOP WE GET...
7) the leading outcomes are 3770 and 4850
8) if we drop hard to 3100 from here
9) then it's going to be 4850, but considering runaway zone
10) 4850 means 4800 to 5100

3 days ago

Note

11) that means that the MOST BULLISH move here is....
12) counterintuitive as a 250 pt drop
13) meanwhile, continuing up from here means 3570-3770
14) probably favoring the high end close to 3800

3 days ago

Note

15) meanwhile, the current MAY high is 3585
16) with RIDICULOUS 2-WAY VOL

3 days ago

Note

17) but the next move should be rollover down
18) silver and spx still looks like it wants to die
19) gold just doesn't care YET...
20) but if spx retests the previous floor
21) gold may have to check 3070 before 3585

3 days ago

Note

22) 11:30 PM I get how to explain this
23) there are two versions of this top
24) a 3600 top and a 4800 top
25) if 3600 is THE TOP, then ...
26) 3200 must hold the retrace and April must see 3450
27) then 3600 would come in May
28) the other scenario involves a retrace of
29) 250-300 points and sideways for 50-60 days before moving for 4800

2 days ago

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10:04 AM ET 04-17-25, This is last chart I posted for coming time frame w/in 36 hours:

2 days ago

Note

1) the route closest to current trends IS SOME VERSION OF BLUE...
2) as a setup for 4725 high
3) I am working on it with spare time

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