Hello traders,
[logic analysis]
Monday: Trump reshapes world assets, commodity fundamentals upend our perceptions
I. US stocks: structural break and emotional panic tipping point
1. Options market trading volume is record
Data: Trading volume in the US options market hit a record high of 100 million contracts on Friday, nearly five times the historical average.
Interpretation: Against the backdrop of a VIX close to 40, high interest rates and limited fiscal/monetary policy, record options trading is not an optimistic sign, but a sign that the financial system is deleveraging systematically and retail investors are selling off in panic.
2. The VIX curve is extremely inverted
Data: The spot VIX reached 45.31, the third VIX futures was only 26.39, and the inverted value reached-18.92 vol points.
Interpretation: This extreme inversion suggests that the market is expecting very high volatility over the next 30 days, while expectations for volatility over the next three months have fallen sharply, indicating extreme market panic about short-term risks.
3. Hedge funds are shorting ETFs on a large scale
Data: The flow of individual stock trading in hedge fund prime brokerage accounts has seen its lowest net inflow in nearly a decade (-3σ), while shorting ETFs (SPY, QQQ, IWM) has reached an all-time high (+22%).
Interpretation: It is a typical "systemic risk avoidance" behavior for hedge funds to quickly establish short positions by shorting ETFs while selling existing positions substantially, which usually occurs on the eve of a major market decline.
4. The cost of market liquidity in ES has soared
Data: In the ES (S&P 500 futures) market, bulk sweep costs soared from a normal 2-3 basis points to 12. 9 basis points.
Interpretation: This extreme anomaly indicates that the market's trading depth is almost exhausted, and once there is a stir, prices will jump sharply, potentially triggering a liquidity flash crash.
The VIX curve is extremely inverted + option trading volume hits record highs + extreme negative feedback risk in the Gamma structure + net selling of individual stocks by Prime Book VS historical maximum ETF short selling + surge in ES liquidity costs, prelude to structural break = U.S. stocks are at a critical point of "structural break + extreme market panic + excessive derivatives leverage."
Gold: the game between risk aversion and liquidity black hole
1. The dollar liquidity black hole
Data: The DOLLAR index jumped 3.2% to 109.7 in a single day, the biggest one-day gain since 2002; the offshore dollar funding cost (LIBOR-OIS spread) widened to 83 basis points.
Interpretation: The dollar liquidity black hole leads the market into an extreme risk aversion mode of "cash is king", and the holding cost of gold as a zero coupon asset is surpassed by the real interest rate of US Treasury bonds.
2. Derivatives market chain crash
Data: The world's largest gold ETF (GLD) suffered a net redemption of $2.1 billion, equivalent to the liquidation of 48 tons of gold holdings.
Interpretation: Margin Call Gold futures surged, leveraged funds sold physical gold, COMEX inventories fell by 27 tons in a single day, market makers' liquidity dried up, and the spot price and futures prices were $50 apart.
3. Performance of gold prices
Recent trend: Despite the high level of market panic, gold prices have not risen significantly. Instead, they have been under pressure due to the strength of the dollar and the sell-off in derivatives markets.
Technical analysis: Gold prices have broken below the key support level of $3,100 / oz and may continue to fall in the short term. Technical indicators show that gold is in an oversold zone but lacks momentum to rebound.
Short-term strategy: Investors are advised to avoid holding futures gold for the time being due to the combined impact of market panic and a strong dollar.
Crude oil: U.S. oil prices fell below $60 a barrel
1. Oil prices continued to fall on Sunday night, dragged down by the trade war. Investors are worried that the trade war will hit the global economy hard and lead to lower demand for crude oil.
U.S. crude futures fell 3.3% to $59.94 a barrel after falling 14% over the previous two sessions and closing down last week.
2. Global benchmark Brent crude fell 3. 2% to $63. 46 a barrel.
If oil prices remain near $60 a barrel for a long time, U.S. shale producers may slow drilling and will have to reassess spending levels for the rest of this year and 2026.
4. Focus on data this week
Thursday: 8:30 PM U.S. March unquarterly CPI data
Friday: 8:30 PM US March PPI data
[opportunity analysis]
[gold]
The fundamental shift last week led to a technical reversal of gold's all-time high.
The daily line reversal signal of the twilight star is clear, with the K-line already running below the EMA; short-term rebounds should not be considered. On the 4-hour chart, the EMA tightly suppresses the upward momentum of the K-line. The K-line with a long lower shadow that appeared in early Asian trading on Monday failed to effectively alter the short-term downward trend of gold.
Looking for the European and American market, 1 hour chart bearish signal, enter short gold, target
TP1： 2970
TP2： 2925
TP3： 2915
GOOD LUCK!
LESS IS MORE!
[logic analysis]
Monday: Trump reshapes world assets, commodity fundamentals upend our perceptions
I. US stocks: structural break and emotional panic tipping point
1. Options market trading volume is record
Data: Trading volume in the US options market hit a record high of 100 million contracts on Friday, nearly five times the historical average.
Interpretation: Against the backdrop of a VIX close to 40, high interest rates and limited fiscal/monetary policy, record options trading is not an optimistic sign, but a sign that the financial system is deleveraging systematically and retail investors are selling off in panic.
2. The VIX curve is extremely inverted
Data: The spot VIX reached 45.31, the third VIX futures was only 26.39, and the inverted value reached-18.92 vol points.
Interpretation: This extreme inversion suggests that the market is expecting very high volatility over the next 30 days, while expectations for volatility over the next three months have fallen sharply, indicating extreme market panic about short-term risks.
3. Hedge funds are shorting ETFs on a large scale
Data: The flow of individual stock trading in hedge fund prime brokerage accounts has seen its lowest net inflow in nearly a decade (-3σ), while shorting ETFs (SPY, QQQ, IWM) has reached an all-time high (+22%).
Interpretation: It is a typical "systemic risk avoidance" behavior for hedge funds to quickly establish short positions by shorting ETFs while selling existing positions substantially, which usually occurs on the eve of a major market decline.
4. The cost of market liquidity in ES has soared
Data: In the ES (S&P 500 futures) market, bulk sweep costs soared from a normal 2-3 basis points to 12. 9 basis points.
Interpretation: This extreme anomaly indicates that the market's trading depth is almost exhausted, and once there is a stir, prices will jump sharply, potentially triggering a liquidity flash crash.
The VIX curve is extremely inverted + option trading volume hits record highs + extreme negative feedback risk in the Gamma structure + net selling of individual stocks by Prime Book VS historical maximum ETF short selling + surge in ES liquidity costs, prelude to structural break = U.S. stocks are at a critical point of "structural break + extreme market panic + excessive derivatives leverage."
Gold: the game between risk aversion and liquidity black hole
1. The dollar liquidity black hole
Data: The DOLLAR index jumped 3.2% to 109.7 in a single day, the biggest one-day gain since 2002; the offshore dollar funding cost (LIBOR-OIS spread) widened to 83 basis points.
Interpretation: The dollar liquidity black hole leads the market into an extreme risk aversion mode of "cash is king", and the holding cost of gold as a zero coupon asset is surpassed by the real interest rate of US Treasury bonds.
2. Derivatives market chain crash
Data: The world's largest gold ETF (GLD) suffered a net redemption of $2.1 billion, equivalent to the liquidation of 48 tons of gold holdings.
Interpretation: Margin Call Gold futures surged, leveraged funds sold physical gold, COMEX inventories fell by 27 tons in a single day, market makers' liquidity dried up, and the spot price and futures prices were $50 apart.
3. Performance of gold prices
Recent trend: Despite the high level of market panic, gold prices have not risen significantly. Instead, they have been under pressure due to the strength of the dollar and the sell-off in derivatives markets.
Technical analysis: Gold prices have broken below the key support level of $3,100 / oz and may continue to fall in the short term. Technical indicators show that gold is in an oversold zone but lacks momentum to rebound.
Short-term strategy: Investors are advised to avoid holding futures gold for the time being due to the combined impact of market panic and a strong dollar.
Crude oil: U.S. oil prices fell below $60 a barrel
1. Oil prices continued to fall on Sunday night, dragged down by the trade war. Investors are worried that the trade war will hit the global economy hard and lead to lower demand for crude oil.
U.S. crude futures fell 3.3% to $59.94 a barrel after falling 14% over the previous two sessions and closing down last week.
2. Global benchmark Brent crude fell 3. 2% to $63. 46 a barrel.
If oil prices remain near $60 a barrel for a long time, U.S. shale producers may slow drilling and will have to reassess spending levels for the rest of this year and 2026.
4. Focus on data this week
Thursday: 8:30 PM U.S. March unquarterly CPI data
Friday: 8:30 PM US March PPI data
[opportunity analysis]
[gold]
The fundamental shift last week led to a technical reversal of gold's all-time high.
The daily line reversal signal of the twilight star is clear, with the K-line already running below the EMA; short-term rebounds should not be considered. On the 4-hour chart, the EMA tightly suppresses the upward momentum of the K-line. The K-line with a long lower shadow that appeared in early Asian trading on Monday failed to effectively alter the short-term downward trend of gold.
Looking for the European and American market, 1 hour chart bearish signal, enter short gold, target
TP1： 2970
TP2： 2925
TP3： 2915
GOOD LUCK!
LESS IS MORE!
10 year 4H swing trader! Join group for free； Contact wechat: ziyuvera; ABC Swing trading strategy Course Consul wechat: ziyuvera
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
10 year 4H swing trader! Join group for free； Contact wechat: ziyuvera; ABC Swing trading strategy Course Consul wechat: ziyuvera
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.