GOLD US inflation preview
Updated
US CPI PREVIEW – 
XAUUSD, US DOLLAR, STOCKS
- The February’s U.S. inflation report will steal the spotlight on Tuesday morning
- Any deviation of the official data from market expectations could trigger volatility
Tuesday marks an important day for investors of all stripes as the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the February’s consumer price index survey, a key report that is anticipated to provide fresh insights into recent inflation dynamics and guide the Federal Reserve's near-term monetary policy outlook.
In terms of projections, headline CPI is forecast to have risen 0.4% last month, bolstered by higher energy costs. This result would have kept the annual rate unchanged at 3.1%. Meanwhile, the core gauge is seen increasing 0.3% m-o-m, leading to a minor downshift in the year-over-year reading to 3.7% from the previous 3.9%.
US INFLATION TREND
Focusing on the market response, official figures that closely align with Wall Street’s consensus estimates wouldn’t generate much volatility or alter sentiment in a meaningful way, but any large deviation in the CPI data relative to what’s priced-in could trigger large price swings across assets. For this reason, traders should closely track the economic calendar tomorrow morning.
POSSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR KEY ASSETS
> UPSIDE SURPRISE (HIGHER-THAN-EXPECTED CPI)
A hotter-than-expected CPI report would confirm that January’s upside surprise was not a one-off event, but an indication that inflation may be reaccelerating and will be harder to defeat. Such an outcome might compel the Fed to revise its PCE forecast upward and potentially reduce the number of rate cuts envisioned for the year at its March meeting.
This scenario should spark a hawkish repricing of interest rate expectations, pushing bond yields and the U.S. dollar higher. In response, gold prices and stocks could come under strong selling pressure.
> SUBDUED REPORT (LOWER-THAN-FORECAST CPI)
Cooler-than-forecast CPI readings would bolster the idea that last month’s data was an anomaly and that progress on disinflation continues. This could give the Fed greater confidence that inflation is on a sustained path towards the 2.0% target, validating the market’s outlook for multiple rate cuts in 2024 and the start of the easing cycle in June.
In these circumstances, we may witness further retracement in yields and the U.S. dollar in the days and weeks ahead. This could inject fresh bullish momentum into gold prices and risk assets.
Gold is consolidating around $2,180/oz. in early trade and may well move further higher. The daily chart is positive and the fundamental backdrop remains supportive. Again with gold in all-time territory, accurate price predictions can be difficult. Big figure resistance at $2,200/oz. may come into play shortly.
Breakout + Test: 2185 waiting for Entry Buy
Breakout + Test: 2175 waiting for Entry Sell
Resistance: 2200 - 2205 - 2225
Support: 2175 - 2163 - 2151 - 2146 - 2137
XAUUSD, US DOLLAR, STOCKS- The February’s U.S. inflation report will steal the spotlight on Tuesday morning
- Any deviation of the official data from market expectations could trigger volatility
Tuesday marks an important day for investors of all stripes as the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the February’s consumer price index survey, a key report that is anticipated to provide fresh insights into recent inflation dynamics and guide the Federal Reserve's near-term monetary policy outlook.
In terms of projections, headline CPI is forecast to have risen 0.4% last month, bolstered by higher energy costs. This result would have kept the annual rate unchanged at 3.1%. Meanwhile, the core gauge is seen increasing 0.3% m-o-m, leading to a minor downshift in the year-over-year reading to 3.7% from the previous 3.9%.
US INFLATION TREND
Focusing on the market response, official figures that closely align with Wall Street’s consensus estimates wouldn’t generate much volatility or alter sentiment in a meaningful way, but any large deviation in the CPI data relative to what’s priced-in could trigger large price swings across assets. For this reason, traders should closely track the economic calendar tomorrow morning.
POSSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR KEY ASSETS
> UPSIDE SURPRISE (HIGHER-THAN-EXPECTED CPI)
A hotter-than-expected CPI report would confirm that January’s upside surprise was not a one-off event, but an indication that inflation may be reaccelerating and will be harder to defeat. Such an outcome might compel the Fed to revise its PCE forecast upward and potentially reduce the number of rate cuts envisioned for the year at its March meeting.
This scenario should spark a hawkish repricing of interest rate expectations, pushing bond yields and the U.S. dollar higher. In response, gold prices and stocks could come under strong selling pressure.
> SUBDUED REPORT (LOWER-THAN-FORECAST CPI)
Cooler-than-forecast CPI readings would bolster the idea that last month’s data was an anomaly and that progress on disinflation continues. This could give the Fed greater confidence that inflation is on a sustained path towards the 2.0% target, validating the market’s outlook for multiple rate cuts in 2024 and the start of the easing cycle in June.
In these circumstances, we may witness further retracement in yields and the U.S. dollar in the days and weeks ahead. This could inject fresh bullish momentum into gold prices and risk assets.
Gold is consolidating around $2,180/oz. in early trade and may well move further higher. The daily chart is positive and the fundamental backdrop remains supportive. Again with gold in all-time territory, accurate price predictions can be difficult. Big figure resistance at $2,200/oz. may come into play shortly.
Breakout + Test: 2185 waiting for Entry Buy
Breakout + Test: 2175 waiting for Entry Sell
Resistance: 2200 - 2205 - 2225
Support: 2175 - 2163 - 2151 - 2146 - 2137
Note
Gold is consolidating around $2,180/oz. in early trade and may well move further higher. The daily chart is positive and the fundamental backdrop remains supportive. Again with gold in all-time territory, accurate price predictions can be difficult. Big figure resistance at $2,200/oz. may come into play shortly.Trade closed: target reached
Gold Breakout out of 2175 as Strategy we have SELL + 220pips signal🔥🔥🔥Note
Note
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2171 - 2169⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2175
→Take Profit 1 2164
↨
→Take Profit 2 2159
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2124 - 2126⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2120
→Take Profit 1 2131
↨
→Take Profit 2 2136
Trade active
Plan SELL + 70pips, close a part move SL to entry.🔥Note
At the current price range, even without downward pressure from interest rate issues, gold prices can still cope with downward pressure from investors' need to take profits.Gold price will move into accumulation mode and may remain stable at around 2,100 USD/ounce before breaking through the 2,200 USD/ounce mark by the end of the second quarter of this year.
Note
Gold prices fell sharply after US February PPI data was higher than expected, making the market increasingly concerned that inflation in the US may continue and affect interest rate cuts. Fed rates.Note
On the weekly timeframe, XAUUSD is holding the ascending channel and approaching the resistance zone at 2280, which coincides with the channel's upper limit and the 100% Fibonacci extension. If XAUUSD sustains above the 2070 support zone, further upside to the 2280 Resistance Zone is possible.Conversely, a break below the 2070 support could prompt a further decline towards the 1950 support, coinciding with the lower boundary of the channel.
🔰| Forex trading
🧩Get an average of 1200 pips per month
🧩Consulting on Risk Management
🧩Account management
🧩Forex signals have a high win rate
🚨🚨🚨FREE SIGNALS: t.me/+8q3AxDD9CsRjYzI1
🧩Get an average of 1200 pips per month
🧩Consulting on Risk Management
🧩Account management
🧩Forex signals have a high win rate
🚨🚨🚨FREE SIGNALS: t.me/+8q3AxDD9CsRjYzI1
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.