12.30 Gold Trading Strategy Analysis
The negative line closed last Friday is very critical. It pierced the 5-day line and the 10-day line in one fell swoop, almost completely swallowing up the positive line last Thursday. This kind of negative-enclosing-positive K-line pattern is a strong signal in technical analysis. It clearly shows that the short-term bullish momentum is extremely weak, and the trend of the market turning down again is becoming more and more obvious. Based on this, the gold market is likely to further expand the downward space this week. Investors can first focus on the long and short competition in the 2610-2600 area. If the market continues to fluctuate within a narrow range above 2600 this week, and the price gradually moves closer to 2600, then judging from the trend, gold is very likely to retreat to the 2580-2570 and 2550-2530 areas again in the later period.
From a technical perspective, as long as the 2640 position of the 20-day line above is not effectively broken through, the overall structure of the gold market will still be biased towards the short side. This is like a tug-of-war game, with the bears holding the rope tightly. As long as the bulls fail to break through the key defense line, the bears will have a relative advantage. Combined with the hourly chart trend, the price of gold fell below 2620 last Friday night. Although it rose back above this price in late trading, the space above for it to continue to rebound is very limited. In terms of operations this week, the top can first focus on the short-term pressure level near 2630, and the strong pressure level will focus on the 2640 line. According to the current market situation, it is very likely that gold will come under pressure in the 2635-2630 range. If gold prices move higher then strong resistance around 2640 will need to be focused on.
Gold operation strategy: Gold recommends short-term short selling near 2630-2635, stop loss 2642, and target 2620-2610. It is recommended to buy long at 2608-2612 below, stop loss at 2600, and target 2625-2635;
Trade active
Gold experienced a unilateral downward trend in volatile trading yesterday. The price rebounded slightly in Asia and Europe. The European market was under pressure at the 2628 mark and ushered in a weak shock and fell. Finally, the price of gold accelerated downward in the US market and broke through the recent bullish dividing line of 2610. The mark ushered in an accelerated decline, and the price of gold dropped to near the 2595 mark and closed weakly. The daily K-line closed suppressed and fell back to the bardo.
The overall gold price encountered resistance at the 2638 mark after a continuous rebound, forming a continuous decline and volatile decline. In the short term, it returned to the suppressed and bearish pattern again. In the 4-hour chart, it was volatile downward. After being under pressure at 2638, it was under pressure at the 2628 line yesterday. The second high point coincided with the resistance of the middle track of the Bollinger Bands to form a suppressed decline. Continue to pay attention to the 2580 low point support below. The gains and losses of the low point determine the development of the future market space. If it breaks the low, it will weaken. If it does not break, it will continue to fluctuate. The small cycle structure is relatively weak, with 2620 as the watershed. Counterattacks during the day will rely on this position to continue to be bearish and follow the downward trend. The target position below is still focused on breaking the bottom, and maintains the main tone of participating in the trend.
Suggestions for intraday short-term operations: short sell near 2618-2620, looking down at 2608,2598.
Trade closed: target reached
Analysis of the latest trend of gold market:
Analysis of gold news: At the end of the U.S. market on Tuesday (December 31), spot gold fluctuated and rose, currently trading around $2,624.57/oz. The price of gold fell 0.6% in quiet trading on Monday. It fell below the 2,600 mark to US$2,595.98 per ounce during the session, and closed at US$2,605.62 per ounce, below the key position near the 100-day moving average of 2,619. The U.S. dollar index once hit a new weekly high, keeping gold prices under pressure. Press. However, most traders awaited new catalysts, including next week's U.S. economic data, which could influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook in 2025, as well as incoming President Trump's policies.
Market participants will focus on upcoming U.S. economic data to assess whether the economy is slowing, allowing the Fed to continue to cut interest rates. Earlier this month, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said U.S. central bankers "will remain cautious about further cutting interest rates." This statement came after the expected 0.25 percentage point rate cut in December. Despite quiet trading this week, traders will be watching next week's U.S. job openings data, the ADP employment report, the minutes of the Federal Reserve's December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, and the U.S. employment report, which could provide important clues about the health of the world's largest economy. Looking ahead, the factors supporting gold prices in 2024 remain - central banks continue to buy gold to diversify their reserves, and continued interest rate cuts in the United States support investment demand. In 2024, gold prices have risen by about 27% and hit an all-time high of $2,790.15 on October 31. As Trump prepares to return to the White House in January 2025, the market is preparing for major changes in U.S. policy in 2025, including potential tariff adjustments, deregulation and tax changes. Gold is seen as a safe-haven asset against economic and geopolitical turmoil.
Gold technical analysis: Gold still repeatedly rose and fell as expected. The energy of yesterday's rebound was somewhat strong. So far, it has not refreshed yesterday's low, which means that this situation of gold will continue, but there will not be a surge in the market. The market is closed today, and the trading volume yesterday was relatively sluggish, so shock is still the main trend at the moment! However, the market does not last, and it does not strongly break through the 2628 rebound position on Monday and fall back under pressure, so gold is still in a weak market, and gold is still under the control of short sellers. Then gold is still in a weak market, and gold is still under the control of the bears. The market is changing rapidly.
Since the gold bulls can't go up, it means that the gold bulls are still powerless, and the gold rebound still continues to give opportunities to the bears. On the whole, the short-term operation strategy of gold on Thursday is recommended to rebound shorting as the main, and callback longing as the auxiliary.
Gold operation strategy:
1. When gold rebounds, sell short at the 2632-3635 line, cover short positions near the rebound at 2640, stop loss at 2647, target the 2610-2605 line, and look at the 2598-2600 line if the position breaks;
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