When will gold stop rising - When to sell gold and start investing in other assets
Hey everyone, Tradevietstock is back again! Today, I’m diving into gold investing after a hot streak in gold prices, with everyone in the media talking about it. There’s even some unofficial info and rumors claiming gold could reach 6,000USD per ounce. But what data shows that gold prices will continue to rise dramatically, maybe even double? And, more importantly, when will gold stop rising? And what is the exact time to sell it and take profit? Let’s break down the data below.
Our view at Tradevietstock is that gold won’t keep climbing like that. Instead, this is the time to look for opportunities to sell at the best price. FOMO (fear of missing out) at this point, chasing gold at its peak, can lead to significant losses, especially if you’re a short-term speculator.
Looking at recent movements, XAUUSD has surged for three consecutive sessions, each by around 3%. To me, this signals strong FOMO in the gold market—not a good sign for new buyers.
i. Gold Price History
1. Historical Data from 1970
Gold has seen significant spikes in the past, similar to the recent surge. Below is a summary of gold price history from 1987 to present, highlighting periods of strong consecutive increases and other key benchmarks.
2. The historical context at key moments
=> As we can see from the events above, gold tends to rise during periods of financial instability and geopolitical tension. However, from 2022 to now, gold prices have almost doubled, and all macroeconomic negative news has been priced in. So, when will gold stop rising and when to sell it?
ii. Probability Data
1. Quantitative Statistics
Below is a statistical comparison of XAUUSD gold prices with similar strong price movements observed in April 2025:
Looking at the data, we can see that gold prices generally decrease from the 30th session onward, after experiencing a 3% increase each session. The 30th session begins on April 9, 2025. Additionally, since 2024, gold has increased by more than 60%.
2. Probability Results
Based on probability calculations from April 9, 2025, the opportunity to buy new positions in XAUUSD is virtually gone. After the 10th and 30th sessions, it's no longer advisable to enter new positions. Instead, it's time to look for sell positions or lock in profits.
=> Since the cycle began, gold has accumulated for 213 consecutive sessions, while the average accumulation period for XAUUSD is about 290 sessions. This is quite close. The longer the accumulation phase, the stronger the price increase afterward. However, we’ve already seen a significant rise in gold prices, meaning most of the potential gains have already been priced in.
3. What Signals Confirm That Gold Prices Will Drop Sharply?
When will gold stop rising and when should we sell it? The answer is simple: we need clear confirmation signals from XAUUSD. In this case, the signal would be a sharp 5% decline in a single session. Based on statistical probability and historical data, such 5% declines have historically confirmed the start of a bear market for gold, meaning prices will either decrease or remain stagnant for an extended period.
A notable 5% drop occurred on May 15, 2006, when gold had previously surged by approximately 55% over a period of about 246 sessions. The outcome was that gold prices dropped by around 14% in the next 30 sessions.
Another example of when to sell occurred on December 4, 2009, when gold experienced a 4% decline after a previous gain of 24% over 144 consecutive sessions. Since the prior gain wasn’t exceptionally strong, XAUUSD only dropped around 6% in the following 50 sessions.
From these examples, we can conclude that gold tends to rise sharply after an accumulation cycle of about 200 sessions or more, with subsequent price increases of 50% or higher. The stronger the previous rise, the larger the drop afterward, typically around 14-15%.
4. Data from Gold Sentiment
When will gold stop rising? When should you sell gold? Based on the Gold Sentiment data from MacroMicro, it’s clear that as the Survey Diffusion Index increases, gold prices tend to rise. Conversely, when this index decreases, gold prices enter a correction phase, leading to a period of stagnation.
Currently, the Survey Diffusion Index has been declining since around March 2025. So when will gold stop rising? This suggests that the gold price may soon reach the end of its upward cycle. However, since this is a lagging indicator, selling or locking in profits requires considering additional factors.
iii. Conclusion
So, when will gold stop rising and when should you sell it? Will the price reach 6,000USD per ounce? According to our analysis, the right time to sell or lock in profits is when a 5% drop occurs in a single session. This conclusion is based on data, not speculation. Gold prices are unlikely to hit 6,000USD per ounce in the near future and will likely need to go through another cycle with an average accumulation period of 200 sessions. The price target to take profit could be around 3,600USD
I hope that the information in this When will gold stop rising article will help you begin your investment journey smoothly and with more confidence. Wishing everyone successful investments and profits!
Hey everyone, Tradevietstock is back again! Today, I’m diving into gold investing after a hot streak in gold prices, with everyone in the media talking about it. There’s even some unofficial info and rumors claiming gold could reach 6,000USD per ounce. But what data shows that gold prices will continue to rise dramatically, maybe even double? And, more importantly, when will gold stop rising? And what is the exact time to sell it and take profit? Let’s break down the data below.
Our view at Tradevietstock is that gold won’t keep climbing like that. Instead, this is the time to look for opportunities to sell at the best price. FOMO (fear of missing out) at this point, chasing gold at its peak, can lead to significant losses, especially if you’re a short-term speculator.
Looking at recent movements, XAUUSD has surged for three consecutive sessions, each by around 3%. To me, this signals strong FOMO in the gold market—not a good sign for new buyers.
i. Gold Price History
1. Historical Data from 1970
Gold has seen significant spikes in the past, similar to the recent surge. Below is a summary of gold price history from 1987 to present, highlighting periods of strong consecutive increases and other key benchmarks.
2. The historical context at key moments
=> As we can see from the events above, gold tends to rise during periods of financial instability and geopolitical tension. However, from 2022 to now, gold prices have almost doubled, and all macroeconomic negative news has been priced in. So, when will gold stop rising and when to sell it?
ii. Probability Data
1. Quantitative Statistics
Below is a statistical comparison of XAUUSD gold prices with similar strong price movements observed in April 2025:
Looking at the data, we can see that gold prices generally decrease from the 30th session onward, after experiencing a 3% increase each session. The 30th session begins on April 9, 2025. Additionally, since 2024, gold has increased by more than 60%.
2. Probability Results
Based on probability calculations from April 9, 2025, the opportunity to buy new positions in XAUUSD is virtually gone. After the 10th and 30th sessions, it's no longer advisable to enter new positions. Instead, it's time to look for sell positions or lock in profits.
=> Since the cycle began, gold has accumulated for 213 consecutive sessions, while the average accumulation period for XAUUSD is about 290 sessions. This is quite close. The longer the accumulation phase, the stronger the price increase afterward. However, we’ve already seen a significant rise in gold prices, meaning most of the potential gains have already been priced in.
3. What Signals Confirm That Gold Prices Will Drop Sharply?
When will gold stop rising and when should we sell it? The answer is simple: we need clear confirmation signals from XAUUSD. In this case, the signal would be a sharp 5% decline in a single session. Based on statistical probability and historical data, such 5% declines have historically confirmed the start of a bear market for gold, meaning prices will either decrease or remain stagnant for an extended period.
A notable 5% drop occurred on May 15, 2006, when gold had previously surged by approximately 55% over a period of about 246 sessions. The outcome was that gold prices dropped by around 14% in the next 30 sessions.
Another example of when to sell occurred on December 4, 2009, when gold experienced a 4% decline after a previous gain of 24% over 144 consecutive sessions. Since the prior gain wasn’t exceptionally strong, XAUUSD only dropped around 6% in the following 50 sessions.
From these examples, we can conclude that gold tends to rise sharply after an accumulation cycle of about 200 sessions or more, with subsequent price increases of 50% or higher. The stronger the previous rise, the larger the drop afterward, typically around 14-15%.
4. Data from Gold Sentiment
When will gold stop rising? When should you sell gold? Based on the Gold Sentiment data from MacroMicro, it’s clear that as the Survey Diffusion Index increases, gold prices tend to rise. Conversely, when this index decreases, gold prices enter a correction phase, leading to a period of stagnation.
Currently, the Survey Diffusion Index has been declining since around March 2025. So when will gold stop rising? This suggests that the gold price may soon reach the end of its upward cycle. However, since this is a lagging indicator, selling or locking in profits requires considering additional factors.
iii. Conclusion
So, when will gold stop rising and when should you sell it? Will the price reach 6,000USD per ounce? According to our analysis, the right time to sell or lock in profits is when a 5% drop occurs in a single session. This conclusion is based on data, not speculation. Gold prices are unlikely to hit 6,000USD per ounce in the near future and will likely need to go through another cycle with an average accumulation period of 200 sessions. The price target to take profit could be around 3,600USD
I hope that the information in this When will gold stop rising article will help you begin your investment journey smoothly and with more confidence. Wishing everyone successful investments and profits!
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Join my Telegram community for quant and fundamental analysis and trading signals. If you're interested in accessing my scripts and algo indicators, send me a message.
Let's WIN so BIG together!!!
Link to join: t.me/tradevietstock
Let's WIN so BIG together!!!
Link to join: t.me/tradevietstock
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.