Daily analysis

Gold rose on Thursday, and geopolitical uncertainty and trade war concerns boosted risk-aversion demand. As the U.S. market was closed due to the Thanksgiving holiday, trading is expected to be quiet. The Russia-Ukraine war continues, and the geopolitical risk is still high. Although the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah has come into effect, Israel's retaliatory emergency measures still make the situation tense. However, Trump's tariff plan is also seen as a potential driver of inflation, which may prompt the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) to slow down interest rate cuts, which may limit the room for gold prices to rise. Wednesday's data shows that progress in reducing inflation in the United States seems to have stagnated in the past few months, suggesting that the Federal Reserve will remain cautious when further interest rate cuts. At present, the market believes that the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 62%. The trend of gold, as shown in the technical chart, the RSI and the stochastic index have rebounded again, and it is expected that the gold price will stabilize again. The closer support is expected to be $2,620 and $2,588, and the next level refers to the 100-day average of $2,572. The fall in gold prices in the middle of this month also happens to find support at the 100-day average. The key is that in 2535, from the bottom of the consolidation from May to June to the bottom of $2,280 to the end of last month, it will reach a cumulative increase of $510, and half of it will be $255 to $2,535. As for the current closer resistance, let’s look at $2,660 and $2,690, and the next level is estimated at $2,730.

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