The strong performance of the US economy
The annualized GDP growth rate in the third quarter reached 4.9%, far exceeding market expectations, showing the resilience of the economy in a high-interest rate environment. The data strengthened the safe-haven appeal of the US dollar, pushing the US dollar index above the 100 mark, and exerting significant pressure on gold.
The United States may reduce tariffs on Chinese goods, and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict talks have made progress, and the market's risk aversion has cooled.
Funds flowed from safe-haven assets such as gold to risky assets, further weakening the demand for gold.
The lowest intraday gold price fell to the 3200 integer mark yesterday, and the short-selling force dominated. The daily line closed with a long lower shadow, indicating that there is short-term support near 3200, but the rebound strength is limited and failed to break through the key resistance.
Key price
Upper resistance: 3265-3270 area (previous bottom conversion resistance, hourly chart downward trend line pressure).
Lower support: 3220-3200 (psychological barrier and short-term buying support).
Market sentiment
The bearish trend is significant, but there is technical buying near 3200.
Before the release of non-agricultural data, the market is cautious and is expected to maintain a wide range of fluctuations.
Data impact expectations
If the non-agricultural data continues to perform strongly, it may further push up the US dollar and suppress gold from breaking the 3200 support.
If the data is lower than expected, gold may usher in a short-term rebound, but it needs to break through 3270 to ease the downward pressure.
Operation suggestions
Long strategy: pullback to 3230-3236 light position long, stop loss below 3220, target 3260-3270.
Short strategy: rebound to 3265-3270 area short, stop loss above 3282, target 3230-3250.
Non-agricultural data may cause violent market fluctuations. It is recommended to strictly control positions and avoid excessive leverage.
If the gold price effectively falls below 3200, the space below may open further, and we need to be alert to the risk of trend decline.
In the short term, gold is suppressed by the strong dollar and weakening risk aversion demand. The technical side is bearish, but there is a possibility of repetition near the 3200 support level. Before the non-agricultural data, it is recommended to mainly operate in the range, focusing on the breakthrough direction after the data.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.