Long

12 MONTH BASIS WITH SUPER DETAILING #2

BACKGROUND - Please read previous posts linked to this post.

WHERE WE ARE - This (yellow) route to 3777 makes WAY more sense by now mathematically than previous blue draft. This route is now the strong favorite with one minor outcome to eliminate on the way. In chart above, gray hi-light is most likely version of yellow route RIGHT NOW. We are at that stage where there really isn't any wiggle room, so I expect price to follow gray route closely. This chart of course would need an update before 3/19 FOMC.

THE EXCEPTION - The dotted line above is bullish mirror image of yellow route. Yet, would lead to an intermediate high circa 3200 before moving for what is ultimately 3860 or higher. RIGHT NOW, yellow route is heavy heavy favorite vs entire field of outcomes. That is to say we do not have to worry about this exception unless price is above 2980 within 36 hours from now. That would be midnight Wed to Thurs New York time.

BLACK ARROW - After the first 100 drop from 2980 high to 2880 as FOMC reaction. This is when I will move this "12 MONTH BASIS WITH SUPER DETAILING" to a group. I will post directions on 03/20 or 03/21.

UNTIL THEN - I will post as many notes as I can whenever I can.

Note

3.12.25, 6:55 AM ET, I have a lot to say today but I don't have any time so:

1) this pattern from now to April basically had 3 moves
2) first is sideways to up to ceiling and rejection 2980
3) second is all the way to the 2790 floor
4) and finally all the way back up to April-May high
5) let's take this one step at a time
6) the first does not look quite like that
7) while there should be a move to 2955 to 298p first
8) it's not obvious that it's higher than 2955
9) bc it's facing more compression than anticipated
10) meaning a slower move up
11) this means that this top CAN ACTUALLY COME AFTER FOMC
12) I have lot more to post later...

Note

13) the gray route in chart above is still favorite but only for like 8 hours
14) if price wants this route, it needs to move NOW
15) otherwise the compression will get tighter and tiger around 2900-2910

Note

16) and then it would just NOT move much for a week

Note

17) scratch that, more like 4 hours

Note

10:55 AM, 4 HOURS LATER...
18) so price is still in position to move up and follow gray route in chart at top
19) this would break compression and prevent the ceiling from dropping
20) but bc of its do or die position
21) it must move NOW

Note

22) in which case the ceiling for 3/18 is 2980 but
23) but the ceiling for 3/19 is 3010

Note

25) however bc the strong trend compression, the vol of the entire window will decrease
26) this means that if the ceiling does not drop
27) THEN THE FLOOR MUST RISE
28) so if price does move up like gray route today...
29) then THE FLOOR MUST RISE TO 2845-2860

Note

Note

30) so let's just deal with this week first:

Note

31) so please understand that yellow route is just a modified blue route from last post
32) and all these gray/black scenarios are just variation of this yellow move

Note

33) so in chart above.... tail end is like that
34) meaning low would be 2845-2860

Note

35) meanwhile the front end more like this:

Note

36) so that puts us right back at blue draft from previous post:

Note

37) BUT THE DIFFERENCE IS TIME PRICE FOR THE LOW
38) right NOW, it's 2855 and 3/20

Note

39) so that's why this is still a version of yellow route
40) bc it is in sync

Note

3/13, 7:51 AM ET, NOTES:

Note

1) yesterday I wrote that price WILL STALL 2948-2958....
2) overnight price missed the first opportunity high vs 5-min bars
3) and has since stalled TWICE AT 2948
4) if you hit play on chart at top, the singular difference between gray and yelllow...
5) in this window I mean
6) is this divergence that should happen here
7) insofar though, price has insisted in following yellow and not gray
8) this part is ultimately not knowable bc we are then dealing with micro time frames
9) and only manageable through hourly updates
10) what CAN BE SAID IS THE FOLLOWING:
a) previous all time high is 2955.xx
b) Bollinger limits for 3-min is EXACTLY 2955.XX
c) with runaway outliers for 2-min bars at 2960.xx
d) with price at 2947.20 as I type, there is no real value Herr
e) because while bull micro trend not totally exhausted
f) you are in "continuous almost exhausted situation"
g) meaning any move up IS NOT GOING TO STICK
h) and immediately drop 30 pts or 1% AT RANDOM

Note

i) typo for last note: h) and CAN BUT DOES NOT HAVE TO drop 30 pts or 1% at random

Note

10:13 AM chart above I meant to post 2 hours ago
1) but ran out of time
2) basically its moving faster than that new black hilight
3) implying a top between 2957 and 2962
4) not saying much bc we at 53 already
5) but it is saying UNDER 2920 TOMORROW

Note

6) BUT BE AWARE OF SHIFTING FOR EXAMPLE:

Note

7) chart above is entire range of this window
8) while black is no doubt the most likely of the routes for next 2 days
9) black route will face do or die in 3-5 hours (for reversal)
10) if price does not fall, then black (and gray) would "die"
11) and yellow would take over aiming for 2978 then 2918
12) as opposed to 2958, 2918, AND THEN 2888

Note

13) but if yellow wins....
14) then the tail end should also shift again up more
15) we will cross that bridge later

Note

16) 10:39 AM, 2958 new all time high...
17) still in "almost almost exhausted mode"
18) but 2961.75 looks really tough to break

Note

19) chart above has red line for daily limits that is a strong indicator of reversal coming ...
20) that line marks 2961.5 and price blew the threshold to 2966
21) EVEN THO THIS MEANS YELLOW SHOULD DOMINATE BLACK ROUTE
22) bulls need to hold this for 2-4 hours so the longer trends catch up
23) bc statistically, black route should own THE FIRST 3 HOURS

Note

12:28 PM WE HAVE RUNAWAY RISK!!
1) up the page when I posted this 2 days ago...
2) I noted runaway risk if price is above 2980 Wed midnight into Thursday
3) well we are 12 HOURS OFF
4) if price holds 2980 for 4 hours that 12 hours off no longer count
5) we are then in runaway again to 3200

Note

6) 12:50PM BASE CASE RUNAWAY TO 3215

Note

7) 1:22 PM ET, 3215 RUNAWAY o
Is due by 3/21

Note

8) 3/18 if too fast

Note

9) usually, in chart above, a late move should get reversed
10) well price has turned down 2 opportunities (or 3 depending how you count) already to...
11) break the black line
12) well now I am sure as can be it's going for it, either today or tomorrow or Monday
13) BUT WE GET TO 3120 BEFORE FOMC

Note

14) that means high base case for June or July is 3890 if low, 3960 if high

Note

15) obviously I am leveraged long heavily heavily leveraged bc this thing is a straight move
16) and won't quit until above 3110-3125, but
17) at 2:57 PM and 2982.xx, here's a review of where we are here to July
18) previously it was blue route and yellow route:

Note

19) so previously, I called the break of black line upwards a red route
20) so let's it make red...
21) out to July here is red vs yellow

Note

22) so be aware of that before I make SUPER DETAILING #3

Note

23) for the record, bc of this move past the black line, low top is 3890
24) high top is 4120, so 3905+/-115

Note

25) at the beginning of this post, I discussed this move as the dotted line in chart at top
26) but said we don't have to take i seriously unless price is above 2980 by Midnight Wed into Thursdday
27) so I was AWARE of the move at the outset
28) but it didn't take the first position up so I took it out in my updates (dotted line)
29) mainly bc daily odds showed rug pull at 2962-2974
30) HOWEVER, weekly, monthly, quarterly and everything else said runaway risk
31) so as soon as bears failed to form rugpull setup, RED ROUTE is the ONLY OUTCOME THERE IS

Note

9:17 PM, THE GOAL BEFORE FRIDAY END OF DAY IS 3033

Note

FRIDAY 7:56 PM overnight tagged 3005 and on course...

1) everything I said yesterday remained true
2) the issue is daily price action
3) the call is 3240 ON OR BEFORE 3/29
4) obviously, the easy move as I said at 1985, 2285, 2580 is still.the same
5) main position must be buy and hold
6) what we talk about here is when to push the leverage
7) and I stated that I was leveraged long yesterday

Note

8) in chart above we are in diagonal compression
9) which will do 2 things
10) one, it favors a staircase pattern to 3125
11) and two, bc of this slowdown...
12) the 12-hoyr shift pushes forward

Note

13) meaning 3125 is favored WED NIGHT or VERY EARLY THURSDAY

Note

3/16, 6:14 PM ET, 2989.88 and Friday delivered nothing except for check down stalling so

1) expectations for Monday is 3060 to 3065
2) the odds are pretty strong I think because of Friday stalling in a ...
3) very bullish window
4) I don't have a lot more to say because I am so busy with my day job
5) as I've said before, I get paid 10-14k a month to do something else
6) and even though this is in such an interesting window
7) it's not my primary focus

Note

10:39 PM ET, 2988.16, exited longs and here is what I see...

8) first play chart above
9) this is forming a rejection at the black line that looks like it's going to do this:

Note

8) continuing in chart above, there-in lies the problem
9) if price stays in the neutral zone between red and yellow
10) I can't call an outcome for Thursday-Friday
11) meaning it's hard to say something like this ...

Note

12) in chart above...
13) I've exited my leverage, but my main long position remains the same
14) all I am saying is leverage right now, and it's 2988.14 as I type
15) is hard too sleep on because there's one more in between outcome to consider

Note

such as:

Note

16) in chart above, as I type at 2987.36 RED IS STILL LEADING
17) but this move from 2832 has been in the "last possible route up" do or die situation several times
18) and its momentum is NOT EXHAUSTED
19) meaning that it IS VERY LIKELY TO STRIKE 3030 IN ANY OUTCOME before reversing and stalling for 2 weeks
20) and that's the bearish outcome which is not favored right now...
21) because price almost need to drop to 2955-2960 to make this move a coinflip
22) in any case the intermediate picture DOES NOT CHANGE
23) the only thing not obvious is how we get from here to 3120
24) and before I sleep, let me state again that red is still the favorite
25) but too much stalling sideways says MORE SIDEWAYS IS NEEDED UNTIL END OF MONTH
26) don't be stupid trying to short this window
27) this is now only a matter of when to push the leverage
28) and I don't think it's the right time quite yet
29) if I wake up to 3065, that's ok... I still have my main long position
30) and there will be another time when I am more sure of it

Note

31) but the math says that it's possible to see 2955-2960 before 3030
32) and IF THIS IS THE CASE, then we should stall to end of March
33) and the floor would be 2875 and slowly climbing before spiking hard in April

Note

34) at 8:48 AM base case is black above
35) 3065 tomorrow but double top rejection
36) after fomc
37) AND RETEST OF 2900 THURSDAY

Note

38) so at 11:55 AM ET, 3/17, THAT'S WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE CHART ABOVE

Note

12:28 AM ET, 03/18, 3013.XX after scratching 3015 new all time high...

1) I wish I had more time to dedicate to this but I don't
2) let me be clear, when I said I am being paid more to "NOT DO THIS"
3) what I mean is my day job takes up all my time and energy
4) and while this is interesting no doubt, I need a reason to do it
5) I do not have a reason...
6) so with the little time that I have...
7) important levels are 3025, 3045, 3055,3060 and 3080
8) 3060 and 3080 ARE NOT OBVIOUS
9) but it's also fair to say that bears DO NOT HAVE A REVERSAL SETUP AS OF RIGHT NOW
10) because price action is not forming such a top in so far
11) so my thoughts are the same, same main long position
12) and waiting for a strong setup to "push the leverage"

Note

13) please understand that the intermediate-long picture has not changed
14) what we are talking about is "on the way there" what should happen
15) do not confuse the two time frames
16) have a good night

Note

17) and for the record, I am way more proud of the work I've done since "price broke the black line"
18) vs the work prior to that
19) and if you don't understand why I feel this way, this material is definitely not for you

Note

8) continuing with notes in chart above
9) so I can also say that this top is possible
10) but I cannot say that it is "base case"
11) UNLESS PRICE MAKES BOTH TOPS AHEAD OF FOMC
12) AT 2 PM ET WED LIKE THIS:

Note

13) in chart above that's the most bearish route available right now
14) the blue implies 3065 high vs 2945 low when compared to most recent "version of yellow"
15) the one that we had before the "break and hold of 2975 last Wed/Thur"
16) and it implies this:

Note

6:20 AM ET, so here is #3 and final post before I start a group for this:

12 MONTH BASIS WITH SUPER DETAILING #3, BASE CASE 4000 THEN 2725

Binary_Forecasting_Service

Starting 03/29/25, I forecast gold for "12 Month Basis with Super Detailing" group at: t.me/+grdj3JMbOa5kOTAx

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