The spot gold price is $3023.61/ounce, down $20.95 from the previous trading day, a drop of 0.7%. The following are the main factors affecting the gold price and the operation strategy:
Influence of news
Economic data: The third person in the Federal Reserve and the president of the New York Federal Reserve, Williams, will give a speech, and his remarks may affect market expectations. If he releases a dovish signal, it may support the gold price; if he is hawkish, it may suppress gold.
The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at least twice this year, and the cumulative rate cut may reach 69 basis points. Williams' attitude towards rate cuts will affect the trend of gold.
Geopolitics: The situation in Russia, Ukraine and the Middle East continues to be tense, which has increased the market's risk aversion sentiment and usually supports the gold price. If the situation eases, the supporting factors of the gold price may weaken.
Technical analysis:
The gold price shows a high-level oscillation pattern, with strong suppression near $3050 above and Bollinger middle rail support in the $3020-3025 range below.
The hourly line shows that short-term bears are dominant, but there is support in the $2990-$3000 range, which may trigger a rebound. The KDJ indicator turned upward in the oversold area, suggesting that there may be a rebound demand in the short term.
Operation strategy:
Long strategy:
Light long near $2990-3000, with a stop loss below $2980.
The target price first looks at the Bollinger middle rail range of $3020-3025. If it can break through, it can further look to around $3035.
Short strategy:
Light short near $3045-3050, with a stop loss above $3060.
The target price first looks at $3030. If the short force is strong, it can be further looked down to around $3015.
Summary
In the short term, the price of gold is greatly affected by the speeches of Fed officials and the geopolitical situation, and there is a possibility of rebound and decline on the technical side. Investors should flexibly adjust their operation strategies according to market dynamics and technical indicators to control risks.
Trade active
Analysis of the latest gold trend:
From the daily line structure, the market ran a strong bullish trend after consolidating at 2930-2880 at the beginning of this month, and the price rose to 3057 at the highest. This also led to serious overbought technical indicators and the emergence of top divergence signals. The adjustment demand was imminent. The large-scale retracement of the market last Friday was also a reaction to the market bulls' profit-taking. At present, the daily line has gone out of the continuous negative, and the K line has broken through the 5-day moving average, suggesting that the current bulls have begun to gradually sell for profit. However, 3000 is only pierced at present, and the market bullish sentiment is still high. At the beginning of this week, the market may fluctuate between ma5 and ma10, with a range of 3038-3000. If the market returns to above the 5-day moving average, the adjustment will end and continue to look up. If it breaks below the 10-day moving average, the adjustment range will be expanded to look at the middle track or even the lower track space.
At the 4-hour level, gold has now embarked on an obvious downward trend. It exited the positive streak last Friday after detecting a rebound. However, today's Asian morning trading did not extend the three consecutive positive trends, indicating that bulls are not willing to rise, so the rebound is just a correction. As long as the middle rail is not broken and stabilized above, it will still fluctuate and bearish. The 1-hour level market shows a downward trend, and the current high and low points gradually fluctuate and move downwards. , the short-term may form a step near 3035-3038 and go down again. Taken together, today's gold trend, our professional senior gold analyst team recommends shorting mainly at rebound highs, supplemented by longs at lows, focusing on the strength of the European market, paying attention to the break of 3000 below, which will expand the room for adjustment. Short-term trading can try shorting near 3035-3038.
Trade closed: target reached
Analysis of the latest gold trend:
Gold prices fell 0.7% last Friday due to the strengthening of the US dollar and profit-taking, and once hit the 3,000 integer mark during the session. However, geopolitical and economic uncertainties linger, and coupled with the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, gold prices are still supported by bargain hunting and safe-haven buying. Last Friday, gold prices closed at around $3,023.04/ounce, up 1.17% on a weekly basis, the third consecutive week of gains.
Last week, gold formed a head and shoulders top as expected and began to fall. The theoretical target of the head and shoulders top, 3,000, has been reached. With the weekly closing higher, it means that the bulls have not been released yet, and there is still upward momentum this week. From the daily gold chart, the market will next test the support of the 10-day moving average of 2995 and the middle track of 2952, and the bottom will continue to be bullish with the support of the 10-day moving average and the middle track. After the two negative lines at the current high level, be wary of the counterattack of the sun and build a "resistance line in front of the sun" pattern, which will repeatedly sweep the market and attract bulls again, so this is expected to become a staged top signal!
At the 4-hour level, after the market rose to the 3057 line, long positions took profits, and the market ran a downward trend, with the lowest price reaching the 2999 line. The current decline is just a correction to the previous rise. After the correction, it continues to be bullish. Last Friday, the market fell sharply and then bottomed out and rebounded, and rebounded in the late trading. As for whether the correction is over; from the perspective of the pattern, this wave of falling K-line runs a continuous Yin decline and double Yang correction to continue to fall. Next, we need to pay attention to whether the market will rebound three consecutive Yang to restart the rise, or turn to Yin to continue to fall. Overall, our professional and senior gold analyst team recommends rebounding shorting as the main strategy for gold short-term operation today, and callback longing as the auxiliary strategy. The short-term focus on the upper side is the 3035-3040 line of resistance, and the short-term focus on the lower side is the 3005-2995 line of support.
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🏆Strategy guidance
💰Analysis layout
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💹In-depth analysis, accurate prediction, grasp the pulse of the gold market, if you like my ideas, please follow and forward
🏆Strategy guidance
💰Analysis layout
🥇Market tracking
💹In-depth analysis, accurate prediction, grasp the pulse of the gold market, if you like my ideas, please follow and forward
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.