💥 GOLD WEEKLY OUTLOOK – Will FOMC and Tariff Talks Decide the Next Big Move?
As we head into a critical trading week, gold is at a crossroads, navigating through conflicting macro signals and important structural levels. Last week’s developments — ranging from strong US NFP data to China’s unexpected
40B tariff waiver — have significantly reshaped sentiment in the precious metals market.
🌐 Macro Backdrop – Shift in Global Risk Tone
🔹 China’s Tariff Waiver on selected US goods hints at improving trade ties. This eases geopolitical risks and reduces the urgency for safe-haven assets like gold.
🔹 Stronger-than-expected NFP (Nonfarm Payrolls) further solidifies a hawkish bias for the Fed. A robust labor market may push the Fed to maintain higher rates for longer.
🔹 DXY & Bond Yields are holding firm. A stronger USD and rising yields typically weigh on gold — unless major risks re-emerge.
📌 FOMC Meeting This Week – Traders are now watching the Fed’s next move closely. Any dovish tone could fuel gold’s rebound. A surprise hawkish tone? Expect further selloffs.
🔍 Technical Landscape (H4 + Daily Focus)
Gold is currently forming a descending wedge pattern, with lower highs and solid support holding around the 3,224 – 3,204 zone.
Last week’s rejection at the 3,277 resistance aligns with macro-driven selling pressure. However, price continues to respect key Fibonacci levels and internal trendline dynamics, suggesting a potential for large breakout movement after FOMC.
🔺 Key Resistance Levels:
3,240
3,250
3,264
3,277
3,311
🔻 Key Support Levels:
3,224
3,210
3,204
🎯 Trade Plan – Week of May 6th, 2025
🔵 BUY ZONE A: 3,204 – 3,202
SL: 3,198
TP: 3,208 → 3,212 → 3,216 → 3,220 → 3,225 → 3,230
🔴 SELL ZONE: 3,276 – 3,278
SL: 3,282
TP: 3,272 → 3,268 → 3,264 → 3,260 → 3,250 → 3,240
⚠️ Key Risks to Monitor This Week:
🏛 FOMC Statement & Powell’s Press Conference
→ Any hint of rate cuts = Gold bullish
→ Any reaffirmation of higher for longer = More downside
💼 Trade Developments (US–China)
→ Further easing of tariffs = Negative for gold
→ Any new friction = Potential rebound
📉 DXY & Bond Yields
→ Keep an eye on Dollar strength. If DXY breaks above 106.5, gold may face deeper pressure.
🧠 Final Thoughts:
The gold market is no longer driven by one-sided risk-off flows. As macro tensions ease, gold is transitioning into a more range-bound, news-driven phase.
This week is all about reaction, not prediction.
Let the market come to your zone. Wait for confirmation before executing. The best trades come from discipline — not prediction.
📌 Follow this account for real-time updates during FOMC and Friday’s CPI preview.
As we head into a critical trading week, gold is at a crossroads, navigating through conflicting macro signals and important structural levels. Last week’s developments — ranging from strong US NFP data to China’s unexpected
40B tariff waiver — have significantly reshaped sentiment in the precious metals market.🌐 Macro Backdrop – Shift in Global Risk Tone
🔹 China’s Tariff Waiver on selected US goods hints at improving trade ties. This eases geopolitical risks and reduces the urgency for safe-haven assets like gold.
🔹 Stronger-than-expected NFP (Nonfarm Payrolls) further solidifies a hawkish bias for the Fed. A robust labor market may push the Fed to maintain higher rates for longer.
🔹 DXY & Bond Yields are holding firm. A stronger USD and rising yields typically weigh on gold — unless major risks re-emerge.
📌 FOMC Meeting This Week – Traders are now watching the Fed’s next move closely. Any dovish tone could fuel gold’s rebound. A surprise hawkish tone? Expect further selloffs.
🔍 Technical Landscape (H4 + Daily Focus)
Gold is currently forming a descending wedge pattern, with lower highs and solid support holding around the 3,224 – 3,204 zone.
Last week’s rejection at the 3,277 resistance aligns with macro-driven selling pressure. However, price continues to respect key Fibonacci levels and internal trendline dynamics, suggesting a potential for large breakout movement after FOMC.
🔺 Key Resistance Levels:
3,240
3,250
3,264
3,277
3,311
🔻 Key Support Levels:
3,224
3,210
3,204
🎯 Trade Plan – Week of May 6th, 2025
🔵 BUY ZONE A: 3,204 – 3,202
SL: 3,198
TP: 3,208 → 3,212 → 3,216 → 3,220 → 3,225 → 3,230
🔴 SELL ZONE: 3,276 – 3,278
SL: 3,282
TP: 3,272 → 3,268 → 3,264 → 3,260 → 3,250 → 3,240
⚠️ Key Risks to Monitor This Week:
🏛 FOMC Statement & Powell’s Press Conference
→ Any hint of rate cuts = Gold bullish
→ Any reaffirmation of higher for longer = More downside
💼 Trade Developments (US–China)
→ Further easing of tariffs = Negative for gold
→ Any new friction = Potential rebound
📉 DXY & Bond Yields
→ Keep an eye on Dollar strength. If DXY breaks above 106.5, gold may face deeper pressure.
🧠 Final Thoughts:
The gold market is no longer driven by one-sided risk-off flows. As macro tensions ease, gold is transitioning into a more range-bound, news-driven phase.
This week is all about reaction, not prediction.
Let the market come to your zone. Wait for confirmation before executing. The best trades come from discipline — not prediction.
📌 Follow this account for real-time updates during FOMC and Friday’s CPI preview.
⚜️ Trade with Money Market Flow, logic, Price action 📉📈
⚜️Risk Reward 1.3 to 2.5...
⚜️Daily 7 to 15 Signals Vip
⚜️Risk Reward 1.3 to 2.5...
⚜️Daily 7 to 15 Signals Vip
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
⚜️ Trade with Money Market Flow, logic, Price action 📉📈
⚜️Risk Reward 1.3 to 2.5...
⚜️Daily 7 to 15 Signals Vip
⚜️Risk Reward 1.3 to 2.5...
⚜️Daily 7 to 15 Signals Vip
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.