Since 2022, Bitcoin has surged in a major bull market, hitting the psychological $100k milestone. However, a triple divergence on the weekly RSI signals an overbought market, pointing to an imminent pullback.
The recent peak likely marked the end of Wave (3). Given that Wave (2) was an expanding flat (verifiable on lower timeframes), Wave (4) should bring a sharp, significant correction.
Wave 4 of (3) formed a running triangle, followed by a short Wave 5—exactly as occurred. Running triangles in Wave 4 paired with a brief Wave 5 often indicate distribution, typically preceding a major move against the trend.
The price action from March 2024 into 2025 resembles classic distribution. Since peaking near $110k, Bitcoin has declined slowly but steadily, suggesting a major crash rather than a typical medium-term pullback.
The $26k–$30k range offers robust support, and it’s unlikely the price will drop much lower. Along the way, the 200-week moving average (MA200 Weekly)—Bitcoin’s strongest historical support—could trigger a significant bounce. However, if this level is decisively breached, full-blown panic could ensue.
Given my expectation of a 2008-style bear market in the S&P 500 (see related ideas), the timing aligns perfectly. A market-wide crash would inevitably impact Bitcoin, as panic drives capital out of all markets to meet margin calls.
The $26k zone should mark the crash’s bottom, potentially presenting a generational Bitcoin-buying opportunity. If the S&P 500 retests its COVID lows while Bitcoin only revisits its 2023 consolidation range, it would underscore BTC’s relative strength. Once panic subsides, capital could flood into Bitcoin from across the globe.
Technically, this would be the bottom of Wave (4). Wave (5) could then propel Bitcoin to $1 million per coin in a powerful uptrend.
The recent peak likely marked the end of Wave (3). Given that Wave (2) was an expanding flat (verifiable on lower timeframes), Wave (4) should bring a sharp, significant correction.
Wave 4 of (3) formed a running triangle, followed by a short Wave 5—exactly as occurred. Running triangles in Wave 4 paired with a brief Wave 5 often indicate distribution, typically preceding a major move against the trend.
The price action from March 2024 into 2025 resembles classic distribution. Since peaking near $110k, Bitcoin has declined slowly but steadily, suggesting a major crash rather than a typical medium-term pullback.
The $26k–$30k range offers robust support, and it’s unlikely the price will drop much lower. Along the way, the 200-week moving average (MA200 Weekly)—Bitcoin’s strongest historical support—could trigger a significant bounce. However, if this level is decisively breached, full-blown panic could ensue.
Given my expectation of a 2008-style bear market in the S&P 500 (see related ideas), the timing aligns perfectly. A market-wide crash would inevitably impact Bitcoin, as panic drives capital out of all markets to meet margin calls.
The $26k zone should mark the crash’s bottom, potentially presenting a generational Bitcoin-buying opportunity. If the S&P 500 retests its COVID lows while Bitcoin only revisits its 2023 consolidation range, it would underscore BTC’s relative strength. Once panic subsides, capital could flood into Bitcoin from across the globe.
Technically, this would be the bottom of Wave (4). Wave (5) could then propel Bitcoin to $1 million per coin in a powerful uptrend.
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Here is my analysis of what happens after the crash: ![[BTC] $1M Bitcoin Inevitable—After a $26k Crash](https://s3.tradingview.com/w/wGvbg0WR_mid.png)
Note
During the crash, I’ll aim to capitalize on short-term moves, targeting clear patterns with high reward-to-risk ratios. My first trade is open, see below: ![[BTC short] Entry: 81.5k, SL: 83.5k, TP: 67k](https://s3.tradingview.com/l/lOvgddpw_mid.png)
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.