Short

Bitcoin - A Prophecy of the Future (Round II)

Updated

Creating a new post on request because the other one was way too long and it was a pain in the ass even for me to update.

So far this has been pretty accurate.

Right now there is a ton of enthusiasm calling for a pump back to old highs.

I have to emphasize that although that is absolutely possible, we are in a different place in the overall market cycle than we were on the dumps to $1800, $2900, and $5500 on the way up to the $19,000 all-time high.

We have been amidst heavy selling pressure for approaching 60 days and have dumped from $20,000 to $5,800

This is the second longest correction in BTC's history and the second biggest in magnitude.

People have developed very bad habits and a very smug sense of self-satisfaction amidst the perpetual bull run.

Longs at an all-time high. People have confused this situation with previous dumps on the bull run. Even long-term and very strong traders are confusing this situation.

The SEC and CFTC have also yet to deal with:

1. Unregulated exchanges
2. ICOs
3. Tether and Mount Finex

1 & 2 are issues Giancarlo and Clayton discussed explicitly during their testimony. Tether was a topic that they _all_ avoided, even while touching _every_ other hot topic in crypto.

That's because the CFTC still has open subpoenas with Finex and Tether.

I'm still of the opinion that a big move downwards that targets long term hodlers and miners is coming before Lightning Network launches.

Institutions want ALL of the underwriting coins of the world's new central banking system.

They will just catch you offguard when it comes, as you gather to pray to the $30,000 moon like you are about to at $9,300.

==
Stop the Organ Harvesting Persecution of Falun Gong Practitioners by the Chinese Communist Party

dafoh.org/petition-to-the-united-nations

Note

Thank you guys for reading my crazy talk. I'd be thrilled to see the bull pump through $10,000 and continue to go up. It would certainly make my spot holdings worth more money, so I wouldn't complain.

On the other hand, I think that's not going to happen until real pain has come to long traders.

If you've benefited from any of my posts along the way, please read and sign the petition to end the organ harvesting of Falun Gong practitioners by the CCP at the end of my post.

If you'd be so kind to spread it around on Twitter and other social media, that would serve to help the situation greatly.

Note

I had been looking for a while for a secondary tests of the lows, or even any pattern resembling Wyckoff accumulation, but it hasn't manifested. It occurred to me that this pattern does, however, look a lot like re-distribution during mark down.

d.stockcharts.com/school/data/media/chart_school/market_analysis/wyckoff2/wyss-02-markdown.png

Right now in the current situation, I believe the market maker has evidenced he's short from 8800-8900 after yesterday's double top, and is long from 8100 after the bounce.

The market maker will move price into profit away from his position. Meaning, if he was short from 8800 and long from 8100, if we approach 8800+ again we are going over $9,000 because he has obviously scalped his short position at 8300 and has maintained his long position.

If the rejection around 8600-8700 continues, then we are for sure going to break the current bullish trend that's within the overall bearish trend and resume liquidating long traders.

Right now with the way it's playing out, the hot zone I'm looking for is $9,200-9,300 taking out all the stops over $9,000 before resuming major corrective cycle.

Note

I've found when the morons come out to flame in this post it's at times when the market appears bullish and their self entitlement to free moon-money is triggered and their spectrum is flaring at an all-time high.

Then price drops and you don't hear from them again.

Bitcoin maximalists, hodlers, miners, and all the traders who have developed very dangerous habits are starting to get desperate.

Pleading and negotiating is starting internally.

Lower highs and bad volume = moon, right?

Note

So, this one is really simple.

I remember when we were back at $3,600ish after the $4,900-$2,900 China FUD correction and Goldbug1 referred to this pattern as "the most important trading pattern to learn".

He called it a fish hook.

Trendline break out, everyone comes and buys. Buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy.

Moon moon moon moon moon is what everyone is thinking.

The difference between then and now?

Then, everyone was bearish and didn't turn bullish until $4,600+ on the retrace.

Now, everyone has been conditioned for automated moon mission.

BTCUSD longs are at an all time high. Highlighted area is from the 2.9k dump to around the 10th of October when it started to confirm re-bull run.

Now, they were way up back then too, but what's telling is back then shorts were also at an all time high.

Now they are nearly at an all time low.

Markets dump when _everyone_ has given up and bought.

Be careful.

However, the good news is, a bullish impulse over $9,500 with sustained strength means this bear meme is dead.

When Wall Street presents a $8,000 and $9,000 dip for you to buy for two weeks, do you really think they did it so you could back up the truck and get rich on the way to 50k by March?

Is it going to be so easy? It wasn't so easy during any other correction, whether major or minor in Bitcoin's history.

Greed and euphoria are fatal death traps.

Note

Run back to $10,000 with a $700 drop in 3 minutes tells you that was the top.

50 days of straight selling and a 75% retrace and people forgot all about it as they FOMO a pump and pump sponsored by 120MM in new Tether.

If it doesn't retrace back to $8,000 you can just buy the dip and get rich and it's the end of the downtrend.

If it does, prepare for pain.

Top longers are about to be tested.

Note

A fractal to consider from Bitstamp daily.

The future is an echo of the past, as I heard someone smarter than me once say.

Note

Been reading this book on Elliot Waves because learnin' things. Found a pattern that seems to be a beautiful match for where we are right now.

imgur.com/a/3NADE

Look for 11.3-11.5k as a topping range before pull back.

Note

So the expanding diagonal triangle from the EW book is still printing its example from the DJIA hourly in 1980 in the book.

Perhaps BTC is a future index for the crypto and tech market related to it and we are seeing the past echo this fractal into completion.

Or, you know, market makers marked up the price to 11k+ during a market cycle that no longer has any attributes of a bull run to entice buyers to fill their short positions.

In the market cycle, there is no moon mission on the correction side of price discovery.

If you believe BTC is going to 30k+ in the next 3-6 months then you are believing that the "dip" from 19k to 6k was merely a dip to buy inside of a larger run up.

Well, yes, but how long do you want to hold a bag for to see fruition on your investment?

Loss of the $10,000 psychological support is major. You might not feel the fear yet, but they make money from selling while you're told to BUY and HODL.

Relative strength of bounces at $9,000 will let us know. Regaining $10,000 bullishly will also let us know.

Trend is down and trend is still down. It has not proven otherwise yet.

Will the barking dogs in the trollbox that tell you "30k bai June!" indemnify your portfolio losses, or are they perhaps encouraging you to buy their bags?

Note

imgur.com/a/3NADE

Note

I haven't cared what any of you have thought of me since I posted this.

Unsurprisingly, during this correction, when the bull trap has been prime is when the coyotes posing as wolves have come out of their caves to yip at my feet.

I still don't care what anyone thinks. Reputation and fame are worthless.

The situation is very binary.

1. This is start of new major bull run and this is meager correction from $11.7
2. Four digit Bitcoin becomes a staple part of your 2018 diet

Be careful which barking dog you listen to, including this one.

It's your risk, your reward, right?

Note

Daily shows a severe rejection of the downtrend line. This will shortly become BTC's 90th "Inverse Cup and Handle! Target: $18,000" in the last month.

2 hours to daily close and the highest swap volume bar by far.

Volume has been nuts in the last week or two with 530,000,000 contracts of open interest on perpetual swap, yet price can't break $11,700.

If Ripple were to show this kind of price action, what would you think of its direction?

Is Bitcoin a special snowflake that only goes ub, or is it perhaps the case that market cycles apply even to crypto?

$10,000+, increasing volume without corresponding moon, and the SEC and CFTC still have not dealt with ICOs or Tether/Finex.

And yet, everyone is complacent and comfortable.

Note

I call this piece "An epitaph for slaughtered pigs"

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Bitcoin isn't a special snowflake. It was a never-short coin because it was on a colossal bull run.

Now it's on a colossal bear run. Shorting is trading in the right direction until proven otherwise, and I hate to break it to moonbois, but you aren't seeing "30k-Bai-May" when you're on the wrong side of a bump and run.

Short it on Bitmex and save on fees with this referral link. Don't rekt yourself with leverage. Trade smart and follow hedging principles.

bitmex.com/register/6COvar

Note

In Bitcoin's 9 year history people have been sure that BTC is going to be worth something roughly in exactly the final two months of 2017 and roughly never any other time.

Major bear market only reverses when it gets so bad for so long that the incumbent bounce is considered a sucker's rally.

$8,000 is a very high price for Bitcoin historically. Fun fact: so is $2,000.

When Lambo? Today if you're shorting.

bitmex.com/register/6COvar

Note

Wee woo

Note

$4,300 will actually come if $7,000 is definitively rejected as time progresses.

What you think can happen and what is actually happening are two different things.

Note

BTC Daily

Silver Weekly

tradingview.com/chart/y7knMu4p/

I actually really enjoyed the last month and a half of "bull run". It wasn't a bull run though. It was just a divergence on the selling side of the market cycle.

Twitter and the TradingView top account shills and all the paid minions in the comment threads, your pump and dump groups, and everything else you pursue is telling you institutions institutions adoption regulation mainstream!

After a run like we just had, before $50,000 comes, whales and institutions need to obtain sufficient supply for their campaign.

There's ~17M Bitcoins in actual circulation. Think about how many that really is. Imagine having merely 25,000 BTC being dumped on Coinbase or Bitstamp?

Say you're one of the largest hedges or traders in literally the entire world and you want to obtain even 10 or 15% of supply so that you have a fundamental stake in the future and can restrict supply when you want the price to go up and suppress price with your supply when you want the price to go down.

You have to obtain in the range of 1.5-2.5 _million_ BTC. Someone has to sell them to you.

The target is the retail traders who bought at 12k+ early on. Most are eliminated. Now the targets are those who bought at 9k+.

The final target is small miners and early adopters. When they move their wallets to exchanges and market dump at the bottom, the reversal is here.

Spam at me all you want, but what happened to the Bitcoin bull?

You're told to BUY and HODL by the machine and the narrative, but does the position _actually_ call for that?

Your money. Your risk. Your reward.

Right now this market trades like it's being sold off by large players who have inside knowledge of when the SEC sweep on scamcoins and ICOs is coming.

Note

I've noticed people are very willing to be completely dismissive and even totally condescending when the price is going up about the realities of market cycle patterns like the one described in this post when Bitcoin was still 5 figures.

Well, that's why you buy the top and hodl for years to get your money back.

Your seller thanks you for your most generous donation. He'll also enjoy selling the coins back to you above what you originally paid for them when you FOMO after supply is accumulated and markup begins.

Note

An absolutely plausible scenario here as well is a BTC pump that is accompanied by an altcoin red massacre.

That being said, retail is always long and there's an _awful_ lot to gain by smarter money being short in this delirious moonboi environment.

Do you know who trading is easy for?

Only the wallets that have deep supply.

For the rest of us, we are their customers and the onus is on _you_ to recognize, play against, and capitalize on that fundamental conflict of interest.

RiversAndMountains

Related publications

Bitcoin - A Prophecy of the Future

by RiversAndMountains

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