Let the BTC trading resume
Updated
Took a nice long break from trading BTC after a bit of hiatus.
It was actually nice not having to pay attention to the market and sleeping well!
Let's resume back to BTC. I'm looking for an entry signal but the market is giving off mixed signals in either directions.
I should first declare that I'm developing the current chart on a 1 Hr log scale.
In a mixed signal environment, it's best to lay out what we know:
Given the objective facts above, we can examine a few hypothetical scenarios. I like to assess scenarios given conditional events.
IF - Price climbs along the upper channel resistance:
a. Breakout above the upper resistance
(If this occurs, it's likely to test 9800-9900)
OR
b. Profit taking may demand for a retracement back below 9000
IF - Price tests below 9000:
a. Good chance of triggering the Stop loss for longs
(If this occurs, it's likely to result in chain reaction of chasing the stop losses to reverse trend back into bearish trend)
I do not see any major resistance until 8300-8100 orange box
b. Resistance at ~8200 is highly likely and the price action here will be a key determinant for the next BTC major trend
While I do think that a reversal is imminent, further bullish breakout out of this channel may be an indicator for the next bull run.
Until the price reverses towards 9000 very soon, I'm staying neutral and eyeing for an entry.
It was actually nice not having to pay attention to the market and sleeping well!
Let's resume back to BTC. I'm looking for an entry signal but the market is giving off mixed signals in either directions.
I should first declare that I'm developing the current chart on a 1 Hr log scale.
In a mixed signal environment, it's best to lay out what we know:
- Apex at the pink triangle resulted in a massive bullish activation
- Upper channel resistance is constantly being tested
- Broke purple resistance line (upper resistance trendline)
- Bullish channel validated
- Sine wave oscillation indicating profit taking. Momentum indicating open opportunities for bearish entries.
Given the objective facts above, we can examine a few hypothetical scenarios. I like to assess scenarios given conditional events.
IF - Price climbs along the upper channel resistance:
a. Breakout above the upper resistance
(If this occurs, it's likely to test 9800-9900)
OR
b. Profit taking may demand for a retracement back below 9000
IF - Price tests below 9000:
a. Good chance of triggering the Stop loss for longs
(If this occurs, it's likely to result in chain reaction of chasing the stop losses to reverse trend back into bearish trend)
I do not see any major resistance until 8300-8100 orange box
b. Resistance at ~8200 is highly likely and the price action here will be a key determinant for the next BTC major trend
While I do think that a reversal is imminent, further bullish breakout out of this channel may be an indicator for the next bull run.
Until the price reverses towards 9000 very soon, I'm staying neutral and eyeing for an entry.
Note
Scenario 1. We use the channel as support to extend the bullish pattern. Not very likely.Scenario 2. The breakdown below 50EMA was enough to trigger further correction. Much more likely as the bullish channel we are keeping is not strong enough to support the current price.
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Note
Falling wedge observed on 5m chart.1-2-3-4-5 impulse wave may be complete.
Combination of the two points above suggest good probability for a short term rebound.
[img]
Note
If the rebound doesn't happen at the current level (above chart), it'll probably trigger a panic sellNote
5th wave extended a bit further than I figured but no matter since I wasn't even trying to catch that.Shorted quick at top of C and I took profit at the resistance.
Currently in the orange box resistance zone and looks to continue sidelining in this area for the next little while.
1D chart shows slight bearish signal.
1H chart shows slight bullish signal.
Mixed signals: I will just watch for now.
[img]
Note
A-B completed. Going toward C (or 4->5 which, i'd be very sad about since I reinforced the short at B).Drawing bear flag at the moment on the 5m chart. Target at 8760.
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