This is How I Shorted The Top on XBT
Updated
What a week. Since the beginning of the week at May 6, XBT/USD has increased over 36%. Some say it is manipulation, others say that the bull run is in full effect and there is no looking back. While I don't personally disagree with either of those opinions (of course the crypto space is manipulated), we must still pay attention to long term trends! Last bull run, weekly price swings of 30-40% were not uncommon and I do not think this one should be treated as a red herring or an anomoly.
After smashing through 5179 and what I at the time saw as resistance (which I decided not short as there was no confirmation below channel support - phew), bitcoin has continued to climb higher, ignoring every single resistance level in it's inexorable dash towards 7585. In hindsight I should have played the channel a bit more but with all the uncertainty, strength, and overall volatility of the market there was not enough confirmation for a position and I was happy to sit this one out. I must admit my bearish mindset got the better of me here.
However, if you look at the chart, you will notice I took a measurement from the low of December 2018, to the high of the massive pump that took us out of the 4000 ranges in week beginning April 1st. I then copy/pasted the same measurement and extrapolated the same distance again, ending with a price of 7575 which I placed a sell order which I honestly did not expect to reach this week or even this month. After we proceeded to hit 7585 and after a strong price decline, I moved my stop down from 7720 to 7392 just in case of another squeeze higher, allowing me to re-enter later if need be.
Interestingly, the RSI is nearing its all time highs, and we have blasted through the weekly upper Bollinger Band both of which add a small amount of weight to a short-term bearish outlook. If we break below the 7000 level (which we have already retested twice on lower time frames), I will be looking for volume and momentum to force the newly opened longs to close their positions and add some downward force; potentially to the 6400 level and then the long-time support of 6000.
Time will tell how this plays out. For the moment I am content to leave my stop and let it ride out, as I see a possibility to take profits around the 4800 level which sits at the 0.618 Fibonacci retrace from 2018 lows to the current high (I have left this Fib retracement out for tidiness sake but you can make your own measurements on this one). Before reaching this level however, I will be looking to see how price reacts to the 5450 level if price does end up declining below 6000, to see if there is sufficient evidence at that time to suggest a further decline.
If price reverses and I get stopped out, I will undoubtedly change my perspective based on S/R, current market trends and price action. In trading, those to cling to a narrative, tend to be blinded to the next move (5179 anyone?). Yes we are all susceptible to bias. Don't let it cloud your vision.
Stay on your toes.
After smashing through 5179 and what I at the time saw as resistance (which I decided not short as there was no confirmation below channel support - phew), bitcoin has continued to climb higher, ignoring every single resistance level in it's inexorable dash towards 7585. In hindsight I should have played the channel a bit more but with all the uncertainty, strength, and overall volatility of the market there was not enough confirmation for a position and I was happy to sit this one out. I must admit my bearish mindset got the better of me here.
However, if you look at the chart, you will notice I took a measurement from the low of December 2018, to the high of the massive pump that took us out of the 4000 ranges in week beginning April 1st. I then copy/pasted the same measurement and extrapolated the same distance again, ending with a price of 7575 which I placed a sell order which I honestly did not expect to reach this week or even this month. After we proceeded to hit 7585 and after a strong price decline, I moved my stop down from 7720 to 7392 just in case of another squeeze higher, allowing me to re-enter later if need be.
Interestingly, the RSI is nearing its all time highs, and we have blasted through the weekly upper Bollinger Band both of which add a small amount of weight to a short-term bearish outlook. If we break below the 7000 level (which we have already retested twice on lower time frames), I will be looking for volume and momentum to force the newly opened longs to close their positions and add some downward force; potentially to the 6400 level and then the long-time support of 6000.
Time will tell how this plays out. For the moment I am content to leave my stop and let it ride out, as I see a possibility to take profits around the 4800 level which sits at the 0.618 Fibonacci retrace from 2018 lows to the current high (I have left this Fib retracement out for tidiness sake but you can make your own measurements on this one). Before reaching this level however, I will be looking to see how price reacts to the 5450 level if price does end up declining below 6000, to see if there is sufficient evidence at that time to suggest a further decline.
If price reverses and I get stopped out, I will undoubtedly change my perspective based on S/R, current market trends and price action. In trading, those to cling to a narrative, tend to be blinded to the next move (5179 anyone?). Yes we are all susceptible to bias. Don't let it cloud your vision.
Stay on your toes.
Note
Aaaand in the time it took me to write this up we broke below 7000. So far so good.
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