BitcoinShort
XBT Trade Strategy (The Exhaustion of the Bulls)
Updated
The bull run was fun. But one can only sprint for so long before having to take a break.
Price retraced with absolute precision to the .236 Fib level ($9600), and bounced hard off it. .236 is not a strong retrace level unfortunately, signaling this bear trend is still strong.
Basically, the retrace took us back to a High Value Node at $8850, and price is trying to figure out if it wants to tear down through this High Value Node or bounce off it and test the .236 fib level again.
If $8850 fails on the 4 hr, expect a retrace to the Point of Control at $8000.
Since volume was massive at $9600 (THE LARGEST in fact) I expect us to fall to the Point of Control at $8000.
I have to admit, 11.7k seemed to be in play as you can see I had a take profit level highlighted there. Unfortunately, we'll have to wait for that retrace.
My prediction: continue to hangup at $8500, then fall to $8000. If point of control fails again, 6.5k it is. Maybe then we can enjoy a nice pump to 11.7k.
Lesson learned: do not analyze anything less than the 4hr candle. Preferably the 1 day candles
Price retraced with absolute precision to the .236 Fib level ($9600), and bounced hard off it. .236 is not a strong retrace level unfortunately, signaling this bear trend is still strong.
Basically, the retrace took us back to a High Value Node at $8850, and price is trying to figure out if it wants to tear down through this High Value Node or bounce off it and test the .236 fib level again.
If $8850 fails on the 4 hr, expect a retrace to the Point of Control at $8000.
Since volume was massive at $9600 (THE LARGEST in fact) I expect us to fall to the Point of Control at $8000.
I have to admit, 11.7k seemed to be in play as you can see I had a take profit level highlighted there. Unfortunately, we'll have to wait for that retrace.
My prediction: continue to hangup at $8500, then fall to $8000. If point of control fails again, 6.5k it is. Maybe then we can enjoy a nice pump to 11.7k.
Lesson learned: do not analyze anything less than the 4hr candle. Preferably the 1 day candles
Note
Bulls Rejoice! Against my sentiment, bulls have bounced of the above identified high Value Node at $8850. Looks like they'd like a re-match against the .236 Fib level ($9600).I won't be bold enough to predict if it will break through, but will open a trade once it has broken on the daily. If fails, will close long position.
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