BTC Bottom - So close yet so far
Updated
What's happening?
BTC has been pretty volatile today as compared to last two months when it was making 0.1-0.5% moves in days.
Today it jumped to 3499, came back down to 3320.
2.x% move up and 2.x% move down within a day. Good day for scalpers.
We are around same price where we were yesterday.
I'm still positive about letting this SHORT run.
Downtrend still exists.
Sell pressure is still there.
But SHORTs are still piling up and hence SHORT SQUEEZE is still on the cards.
So, that being said, there is a very high chance that we have already bottomed out or are very very close to the bottom. If 2900 is the bottom, we are just 14% ($300-400) away from it.
If 2900 doesn't hold, next solid support is at 1800 with a tiny bit of support around 2350.
Now considering all of the above, I'm not putting a lot of money on this SHORT.
But I'm going with the trend and letting this SHORT run.
How am I trading it?
1. So, I've taken profits from my SHORT around 3330
Staggered again at 3460, 3540 and 3650 with a SL at 3670
TP from here onward till 3k.
2. I've put BUY ORDERS with a very tiny amount in the range of 3k to 2800 with a SL at 2750. Very high chances of 2900 being the bottom of this drop. So risking a small equity for this counter trend trade.
What are my indicators saying?
4hr FOMO has finally turned GREEN today after staying RED since 3900.
Daily FOMO is still RED.
FOMO Momentum Scalper on 4hrly and daily timeframe is indicating a reversal. Check the DARK GREEN bars in the histogram.
Holy Trendline has turned GREEN too.
My indicators are indicating a relief rally but considering the recent sell pressure, I'm not convinced. Not yet.
When will I LONG?
I'll simply open a LONG trade for short term once my SL at 3670 gets hit. That'll be a temporary break of downtrend.
For me to be Super Bullish, I would want BTC to close and consolidate above HTL on daily timeframe. HTL on daily is at 4220
Until then, it's SHORT the pump as I've been saying.
Why don't I LONG now?
Since, I believe 2900 is the bottom, I just simply don't wanna Counter-Trend Trade at the moment.
I will miss out on that Big Fat Green (Short Squeeze) whenever it happens if 2900 is the bottom. Perfect timing for a SHORT SQUEEZE would be a bounce from 2900.
But we don't know that for sure. We just don't know what the bottom is until we know what the bottom is.
It'll be one of those horizontal supports or a trendline from the past. But we don't know which one.
Which is why I'm sticking to trade with the trend and SHORT those pumps.
BTC has been pretty volatile today as compared to last two months when it was making 0.1-0.5% moves in days.
Today it jumped to 3499, came back down to 3320.
2.x% move up and 2.x% move down within a day. Good day for scalpers.
We are around same price where we were yesterday.
I'm still positive about letting this SHORT run.
Downtrend still exists.
Sell pressure is still there.
But SHORTs are still piling up and hence SHORT SQUEEZE is still on the cards.
So, that being said, there is a very high chance that we have already bottomed out or are very very close to the bottom. If 2900 is the bottom, we are just 14% ($300-400) away from it.
If 2900 doesn't hold, next solid support is at 1800 with a tiny bit of support around 2350.
Now considering all of the above, I'm not putting a lot of money on this SHORT.
But I'm going with the trend and letting this SHORT run.
How am I trading it?
1. So, I've taken profits from my SHORT around 3330
Staggered again at 3460, 3540 and 3650 with a SL at 3670
TP from here onward till 3k.
2. I've put BUY ORDERS with a very tiny amount in the range of 3k to 2800 with a SL at 2750. Very high chances of 2900 being the bottom of this drop. So risking a small equity for this counter trend trade.
What are my indicators saying?
4hr FOMO has finally turned GREEN today after staying RED since 3900.
Daily FOMO is still RED.
FOMO Momentum Scalper on 4hrly and daily timeframe is indicating a reversal. Check the DARK GREEN bars in the histogram.
Holy Trendline has turned GREEN too.
My indicators are indicating a relief rally but considering the recent sell pressure, I'm not convinced. Not yet.
When will I LONG?
I'll simply open a LONG trade for short term once my SL at 3670 gets hit. That'll be a temporary break of downtrend.
For me to be Super Bullish, I would want BTC to close and consolidate above HTL on daily timeframe. HTL on daily is at 4220
Until then, it's SHORT the pump as I've been saying.
Why don't I LONG now?
Since, I believe 2900 is the bottom, I just simply don't wanna Counter-Trend Trade at the moment.
I will miss out on that Big Fat Green (Short Squeeze) whenever it happens if 2900 is the bottom. Perfect timing for a SHORT SQUEEZE would be a bounce from 2900.
But we don't know that for sure. We just don't know what the bottom is until we know what the bottom is.
It'll be one of those horizontal supports or a trendline from the past. But we don't know which one.
Which is why I'm sticking to trade with the trend and SHORT those pumps.
Note
As you can see that, after 2 days of sideways, that downtrend resistance is here.If we break that, we'll be heading to 3640 or higher for now.
If you are in a SHORT, I would suggest close it for now.
Keep 3520 SHORT , stagger 1 -> 3540 and SL at 3560 now.
This doesn't mean that trend has changed.
We are still very much in a downtrend.
But for the time being, over a short term, XBT might break out from this resistance.
At the same time there is a good chance of it being rejected from it. Like it has last 3-4 times.
So be careful here.
I'm in LONG from 3432 on my Scalp n Challenge Account.
Main account has SHORT orders followed by SL as mentioned above.
After that, SHORT orders at 3640, 3740 and 3860 followed by SL at 3890
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