Long

BTC will top on December 11th at $9555.50.

Updated

I see the top for BTC in 2019 to be at $9555.50 December 11th.
This is part of a more long term chart.

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I have adjusted my theory a little since yesterdays daily candle went a little higher.
One logical explanation would be the leverage trading platforms.
I will keep on monitoring, adjusting and evolving and most important collect the data. My December 11 target could be going a bit higher than expected but I will need the data from the next couple of days to try to recalculate it.
But pretty pleased so far but I also know that there are many factors that could change the movement. According to the market sentiment, the safer bet would be only going long and not play short opportunities. But I'm playing both ways to try to collect as much data as possible. I'm only sharing my thoughts and not so anyone takes bets you can't afford to lose.

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And here is why it dropped more than expected today. $50 million hacked from Upbit but funds are going to be replaced.
eng.ambcrypto.com/upbit-releases-statement-after-ethereum-transfer-leads-to-hack-speculations/

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But the extra dip made a reverse head and shoulder appear that the bulls used to gain the needed momentum and pushed the price up. The one factor that I need to incorporate is the leverage trading platforms FOMO effect, as this was not part of the data I used in my theory and might be why the price can create a bigger wick.

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IMO, the Upbit hack today was abused in such way that someone blew it up to be much more critical than it was(Because funds are going to be replaced by Upbit) and created intentionally the reverse head and shoulder that made the price shoot up a lot more than it was expected to do today. Because this was expected to happen tomorrow. I'm normally not into the tinfoil hat stories but I have to agree with someone I respect a lot that this looked staged today. This means that tomorrows candle high is almost reached already.
I need to look deeper and try to calculate all this but as it looks right now I see it go up higher and kiss around $7800 in tomorrows candle and then in the days after back down where Saturday it should hit the low for now before it starts to rise a lot. But this is only a quick opinion and I will try to use the night to look into it and incorporate today's data because I see such chart as a living organism that is alive and that evolves because this market is still so young and many new factors adding to the complexity. I'm still pretty pleased because I was ready for this to happen, it only came a day before but I got in on the drop as I already had orders ready in the book. I always prepare and have orders in the book from the morning.

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Like I was saying yesterdays events did add on a few extra layers but I believe we could see BTC cross the resistance at $7721 and go for the major one at $7861 today or tomorrow.
It then looks like we will then see it retrace before it seeks towards new heights.
I need to monitor the next 48 hours to fully be able to how big an effect yesterdays events will have on the rest of the year and if I will adjust my target day for the next high in 2019. Because it will depend on if today's candle and the wick will be bottom at $7421 and top around $7861 or it will fit the candle from yesterday.

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FYI, I meant it can be back on track on following today's candle and that would mean the top is $7570. If yesterdays events have created a little extra momentum it will be clear because it will break up over the $7570. I still think the rest will follow in 2019. I will monitor the process but no matter what it does look like it will try to go up in the next 48 hours but will fail before the journey going back up will start for 2019.

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With the extra factor included in today's candle, we should see it get rejected at $7861 and seek down towards $6950 in tomorrows candle.

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No higher than $7950.

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And down it went as expected. In the next 50 hours, we should see it go under $7000 but the other day's hack/events are still playing an extra factor where the candles get a little extra momentum. I have created an extra layer based on those events that I'm testing out right now.
Timeframe calculation is hard, especially when it is down to the daily chart.
My backtracking going very good on MEX where I follow with big discipline my chart and strategi and got some amazing results.
Remember, if you read this, trading with leverage can be very dangerous but you will never learn if you keep thinking something is dangerous and don't start to learn. For me, it is always easier to learn something when I have skin in. But I remember when I started because I started with only $100 to get to learn MEX better and all the functions and for me, that was the best way. You can find me on Twitter if you have any questions where I will be more than glad to help. I don't make any financial advice though.
FYI: The link is a ref link where you will get a 10% discount on the trading fees the first 6 months on MEX. I also get a little out of it if you choose to use it. bitmex.com/register/ly2yRb

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And down it came. It is at $7354.50 right now but now there yet. The bottom that is.
It seems I didn't give enough credit to the fact that it is Black Friday weekend and on top of it the Upbit Gate(haha) also added an unexpected momentum with the reverse head and shoulder that it created.
I have to calculate again tomorrow(almost 4 in the morning so today) to see where it will bounce because everything is connected.

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What I have called the Upbit Gate has for sure had an extra impact on the momentum and I didn't think about it was Black Friday weekend when I made the chart and my theory.
But I'm pleased with the new candle opening as it was the exact price as it should open at.
The next 48 hours will be exciting and I will turn my short positions into longs at the dip. It was ofc not without any risk when I went short at $7780 while everyone else around me was bullish. But I had to trust my calculations.
But while some analysts start to say that December will be very Bearish I have to disagree because I still see a nice run up as I showed.

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I apologise as I misspoke. I went short at $7777.50

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The extra momentum from The Upbit Gate is having an influence on time and therefore the price. Right now I see an important price level at $7169.
I will change my short positions to long on this last dive. After the dive good times ahead IMO.

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I might have discovered something at $7290. It is at $7311 right now but I have discovered an abnormality in my theory but I need to look more into it so I can incorporate it in my chart asap!

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But still bullish as this is more about the bounce timing etc.

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The Upbit Gate did create a butterfly effect in my time calculation.
When the reverse head and shoulder were created it gave an extra boost and moved the daily close higher but on December the 4th it should have kept up the momentum but IMO the butterfly effect from the Upbit Gate removed the volume and created a vacuum.
On my chart, we are at the bottom of the channel we are in right now. Or the bottom was on November 25th but we are still down in the bottom area close to the support in the current channel. The ''King'' support is right now at $6700 ish. This support line goes years back and has never been broken in a daily candle. This is why I call it the ''King'' support:)
I have tried different approaches to how to add the extra factor that was created into something that will work on my chart. Because the Upbit gate events could have bigger consciences timewise when it comes to the expected peak on December 11th. I will need to find a way to recalculate the time aspect and adjust my theory. Because time and price are connected. Everything is connected.
But overall pretty satisfied about the last 2 weeks, I only need to pinpoint the method to calculate in such events as the Upbit Gate even though that is near impossible to do. But I like a challenge haha.
We should see it go down and fill the CME futures gap around $7460 but I suspect it will only be a wick down because IMO BTC is still looking bullish overall.

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The Golden 100/50 cross on the weekly chart has happened and the last time this happened was in May 2016 where BTC was at $433 ish before it started its big journey up to $20.000 in December 2017. Now we only need the Parabolic Sar boles under the price together with the 21 EMA and it will be the perfect Bullish setup:)
But this is a good start indeed and an early ''warning'' on what is yet to come.

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I don't like how it doesn't manage to stay up and everything ends in a wick and back down. I still expect something big coming in the next week but with the way the behavior has been, I will wait on the big short that will happen.

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I still expect a big move but I can't figure out how to calculate the events into the chart in a way so I know exactly when it will turn around and go down. Because I have no doubt it will go down after the move and it will go down big time. The dates are unclear but my best guess would be end of the week.

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It will not surprise me if this was a scam wick down on the 6H candle.
Because there is a few hours left on the 6H candle to stay inside the triangle that is shaped by the channel res. from the $10.500 high and the channel support from the $6500 low.

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I will change to long when it hits $7080. I expect a major move this week.

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Okay, I have recalculated and one thing is sure. A big move is coming.
I see the numbers $6500 but even down to $6000(Could be a wick on the daily chart) and I see the numbers $7080 and $7995.50 and $8840.50 and $10447.50.
I look at the trend shift and use that is an indicator.

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I see the numbers $7666 and $7995.5. Depending on the incoming volume the absolute highest I see is $8840.5 but $7995.5 will be a hard one and will need more volume. But then after I see again $6500-$6000.

CryptoDadi

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