BitcoinShort
My view of crypto fraud market, the magician and 666
Updated
I've wanted to post this idea much earlier, but I didn't feel to write, although I got so many to write about with a constant flow of ideas and information that I could write volumes, I try to keep it short and expand it in updates. I do notice nobody gets my updates, you have to click the "Follow this idea" next to the like button, try if that helps... if not, well my account is shadowbanned indeed.
The pump was artificial, there is no 100m usd mystery buyer, that story is non-sense, because a mystery buyer does not place at hundreds of exchanges same second for supposedly billions of dollars market orders. Imho, it's the crypto cartel, ala exchanges that have done this. I've explained this before in the MM exit pump idea when we went to 8.45k last year.
Today my friends, it's the beginning of the end. I've talked about black swan for over a year that it's coming. Bitfinex and tether are getting sued, but this is just the beginning, because the rest is following.
wsj.com/articles/bitfinex-used-tether-reserves-to-mask-missing-850-million-probe-finds-11556227031
theblockcrypto.com/2019/04/25/ny-attorney-general-sues-bitfinex-and-tether/
Task Enforcement agencies have already banded worldwide and Binance will be the biggest of entire crypto collapse.
asiatimes.com/2019/04/article/will-us-crash-binances-holiday-on-the-med/
theblockcrypto.com/2018/11/16/fast-footwork-binance-has-danced-around-regulations-and-even-moved-itself-to-run-its-exchange-the-way-it-wants/
I shared with friends a vision I had last summer that a major exchange is going to get shutdown in Oct '19, I've put this idea locked/private, here it is for future reference @
This probably will be shunned as fud, but I know asia crackdown is coming coming months already and CZ probably knew he would go to jail when he stayed in Japan, which I've talked about last year, hence fleeing to pirate island, which is now also not safe, they're coming there as well. I've made predictions last year as well what would happen and so far coming true:
1) Fake exchange hack stories, when in reality it's organized theft and exitscams. Many have exitscammed and many more will, including the large exchanges. Quadriga was just one of them;
2) The drop to 3.2-3.3k, before going lower;
3) Manipulation of price using tethers;
4) Manipulation of public sentiment;
5) The toxification of crypto communities (see CT);
6) The rise of fraud and criminal activities.
I've calmed down the guys thinking it was the bottom at 3.12k, which I do not subscribe too. I saw even the permabears became bullish and calling the bear market over. I've always said we going to make a new low to 2-2.2k for bounce area to watch how it reacts before calling anything over. My neutral price is $650-700 and a real collapse could mean $80-$90 per bitcoin. I've shared my fundamental reasons for thinking and feeling so. I've shared the evidence of manipulation back in Bitcoinica days, to MtGox to Bitfinex to Binance to Bitmex and all usual suspects of pump and dump clowns and promoters and useful idiots at the expense of the naive, which there are many.
You've been told lies about Bitcoin and it's become like a religion, which any who believed in it that it would be the future would proof to me they are young souls and probably will find out the hard way if they don't change.
I do believe digital currencies will be the future, probably with blockchain for scalability, uptime and security. I've watched this space since 2011 and only started trading few years laters and I've read the bitcoin white paper and sounded very good. Today, 10 years later, Bitcoin devs have departed from that vision for centralized vision, the anti-thesis of Satoshi Nakamoto. What has become of cryptocommunity freedomlovers has turned into a toxic place of the masses where everything is about the value of bitcoin vs usd, including exchanges who scam people for every cent they got. This was not what Bitcoin was first about, hence I call crypto a giant fiat extraction ponzi scheme. If crypto was about to survive and have meaning, it has to start over, with all rotten players out of the game and start mass adoption in private and public sector at much lower prices so distribution goes to as much people as possible.
Valuations are still in bubble territory and is kept aritficial with tethers. Last month over 1.2 BILLION magic money (yesterday 300m + 40m) was pumped in the system with worldwide fiat trading vol less than 6% and estimation fiat in system less than 10% at much lower prices, so prices are propped up to the last suckers still buying, including some people from MtGox days I know who have not learned anything.
Now here is the kicker. They can still exit scam and pump prices to 8-30k, which has nothing to do with technicals, see my chart, in other words, entire crypto will be Tethers exclusively. This will mean that you CANNOT cash out in fiat, I hope you do understand that, right? Your only place would be p2p with no liquidity and eventually at discount. I've said in my updated post and in the one of SPX + my twitter were first resistance was, which we hit and second to sell coin and also where to exit crypto and cash out. I've recommended not to short and some people didn't listen and got in big losses, then why you telling me this when I said not to short when obviously it would go higher.
With such news, this rally can be over, as it was with Bitconnect. Yeah, how did TA worked out for you with that. Most important asset is your brain.
I will update this post later on, right now is critical time and I don't have time to write more at the moment. This chart was made yesterday and targets were made many months ago. My targets don't change, as you see in my previous ideas, I actually did call the bottom which I said was NOT the FINAL bottom. Many egos said they called it when they didn't call anything without any proof, while mine is over a year old at first.
Most important thing, preserve your capital. Updates will follow.
The pump was artificial, there is no 100m usd mystery buyer, that story is non-sense, because a mystery buyer does not place at hundreds of exchanges same second for supposedly billions of dollars market orders. Imho, it's the crypto cartel, ala exchanges that have done this. I've explained this before in the MM exit pump idea when we went to 8.45k last year.
Today my friends, it's the beginning of the end. I've talked about black swan for over a year that it's coming. Bitfinex and tether are getting sued, but this is just the beginning, because the rest is following.
wsj.com/articles/bitfinex-used-tether-reserves-to-mask-missing-850-million-probe-finds-11556227031
theblockcrypto.com/2019/04/25/ny-attorney-general-sues-bitfinex-and-tether/
Task Enforcement agencies have already banded worldwide and Binance will be the biggest of entire crypto collapse.
asiatimes.com/2019/04/article/will-us-crash-binances-holiday-on-the-med/
theblockcrypto.com/2018/11/16/fast-footwork-binance-has-danced-around-regulations-and-even-moved-itself-to-run-its-exchange-the-way-it-wants/
I shared with friends a vision I had last summer that a major exchange is going to get shutdown in Oct '19, I've put this idea locked/private, here it is for future reference @
This probably will be shunned as fud, but I know asia crackdown is coming coming months already and CZ probably knew he would go to jail when he stayed in Japan, which I've talked about last year, hence fleeing to pirate island, which is now also not safe, they're coming there as well. I've made predictions last year as well what would happen and so far coming true:
1) Fake exchange hack stories, when in reality it's organized theft and exitscams. Many have exitscammed and many more will, including the large exchanges. Quadriga was just one of them;
2) The drop to 3.2-3.3k, before going lower;
3) Manipulation of price using tethers;
4) Manipulation of public sentiment;
5) The toxification of crypto communities (see CT);
6) The rise of fraud and criminal activities.
I've calmed down the guys thinking it was the bottom at 3.12k, which I do not subscribe too. I saw even the permabears became bullish and calling the bear market over. I've always said we going to make a new low to 2-2.2k for bounce area to watch how it reacts before calling anything over. My neutral price is $650-700 and a real collapse could mean $80-$90 per bitcoin. I've shared my fundamental reasons for thinking and feeling so. I've shared the evidence of manipulation back in Bitcoinica days, to MtGox to Bitfinex to Binance to Bitmex and all usual suspects of pump and dump clowns and promoters and useful idiots at the expense of the naive, which there are many.
You've been told lies about Bitcoin and it's become like a religion, which any who believed in it that it would be the future would proof to me they are young souls and probably will find out the hard way if they don't change.
I do believe digital currencies will be the future, probably with blockchain for scalability, uptime and security. I've watched this space since 2011 and only started trading few years laters and I've read the bitcoin white paper and sounded very good. Today, 10 years later, Bitcoin devs have departed from that vision for centralized vision, the anti-thesis of Satoshi Nakamoto. What has become of cryptocommunity freedomlovers has turned into a toxic place of the masses where everything is about the value of bitcoin vs usd, including exchanges who scam people for every cent they got. This was not what Bitcoin was first about, hence I call crypto a giant fiat extraction ponzi scheme. If crypto was about to survive and have meaning, it has to start over, with all rotten players out of the game and start mass adoption in private and public sector at much lower prices so distribution goes to as much people as possible.
Valuations are still in bubble territory and is kept aritficial with tethers. Last month over 1.2 BILLION magic money (yesterday 300m + 40m) was pumped in the system with worldwide fiat trading vol less than 6% and estimation fiat in system less than 10% at much lower prices, so prices are propped up to the last suckers still buying, including some people from MtGox days I know who have not learned anything.
Now here is the kicker. They can still exit scam and pump prices to 8-30k, which has nothing to do with technicals, see my chart, in other words, entire crypto will be Tethers exclusively. This will mean that you CANNOT cash out in fiat, I hope you do understand that, right? Your only place would be p2p with no liquidity and eventually at discount. I've said in my updated post and in the one of SPX + my twitter were first resistance was, which we hit and second to sell coin and also where to exit crypto and cash out. I've recommended not to short and some people didn't listen and got in big losses, then why you telling me this when I said not to short when obviously it would go higher.
With such news, this rally can be over, as it was with Bitconnect. Yeah, how did TA worked out for you with that. Most important asset is your brain.
I will update this post later on, right now is critical time and I don't have time to write more at the moment. This chart was made yesterday and targets were made many months ago. My targets don't change, as you see in my previous ideas, I actually did call the bottom which I said was NOT the FINAL bottom. Many egos said they called it when they didn't call anything without any proof, while mine is over a year old at first.
Most important thing, preserve your capital. Updates will follow.
Note
Quick update:It's hanging few dollar above support on CB (had to chart different exchange) to maintain that higher low. What I'm looking at is to break 4745 and a bounceback to max 5300, otherwise this trend is still going up (with expected 5800-5840 next resistance). This was not the dump I was hoping for as it was during Jan 2017, everybody who bought support on the Japanese hack got liquidated, hasn't happened here.
If it's going up, don't short blindly, because many people wanna sell 6k making me believe we go much higher if that would be the case. This time have to watch charts closely on rejection to enter. Trend is over when nobody has chance to sell (no retest).
So far looks very controlled and still technically bullish, although I'm still leaning bearish (the manipulation of perception and emotions of people using the moon, I will write in future updates what magician entails).
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Got the usual suspects of tether defenders in dms. I really don't care if the money is there or not, because large players cannot cash out and there were problems with cryptocapital for a long time already, most CC clients already bankrupt/exitscammed and now one big one is remaining... as we all already know, tethers contain washed money mixed with fiat from investors and traders, a problem all governments, eu and imf are combating putting entire crypto space at huge risk now that we are so close regulations are around corner (may-july asia crackdown). No big money is coming in, as they are not allowed under law regarding consumer protection, but I know there are some smaller hedge funds in this game gambling and most got liquidated in 2018. How do I know? I've posted this at April just before the huge pump in '17 for a friend who works at hedge fund who wanted to buy and sell 9.6k and wanted my opinion (see that idea of the king needs reinforcements). Seriously, if you're trolling you either get a back more or I ignore.In this chart below is tether total mcap vs btcusd, do you see correlation? That's why I say to be very careful, what if they buy all up with tether and shoot to 8k+ on empty books for the ultimate exitscam. Shorting now is way more dangerous than when we were at 6k, just look at tetherinflow 2015-2017 vs btcusd ($150 -> 20k), so I cannot recommend you to do anything, except speaking from common sense to cash out if they pump it and wait for better times (2k to trade or 3 digits to hodl if you really wanna invest for long term, because I don't think bitcoin will ever go away, even when better things come around, it's in the end the perfect ponzi ever created, that's what smart people who wanna exploit exactly know as well, but for mass adoption I think bsv and bch got better changes so best to diversify, maybe I write later on fundamentally why).
Many people still not getting updates, so you can follow me also on twitter, but not making much charts either, but more than I did here last month:
twitter.com/xBullBearTrader/status/1107722341570801669
twitter.com/xBullBearTrader/status/1113160614606667776
To answer question why they pumped it: Liquidity pool was at 3k back then shifted lower, which was expected move to make, but they didn't (they gambled for sentiment manipulation and they succeeded now that majority calls bear market over and bottom is in), so anybody who kept shorting kept being eaten, because they were the target of liquidity, because they know they pumped on empty books making the gamble people would come back to put fiat in so they could sell at premium (see the greed of the mm?).
That's why I think they will stay distributing longer, maybe one more pump to 5800-5840 to complete the tape painting, but if higher than 6150 (6500 was already played, possible too though, but then goes likely higher to 7925), the scenario of exitscam becomes real for me and I sell every crypto and cash out if they actually gonna do that. Every trader and investor cares about $ in the end, I don't believe anyone who doesn't by default, unless I really know they are for the 'change', then they wouldn't buy Bitcoin in first place since it's not even usable for such scenarios to replace banking (will not happen). I still think it's a creation by elite central banker family in first place, so one day they come with their own and let the titanic sink. Hegelian dialectic always worked so far for any major change (and yes, I'm sure they wanted this change themselves, this didn't came from ordinary people and blockchain != privacy, so you would be better off with cash... just saying).
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People never learn and now you can margin in, one day even liquidations roll in for this one, because there were no incentives before it with oi so low on kraken.Note
Tether to 33k, USD to 2k, let the decoupling begin. Shouldn't be a problem for permabulls in tether :)Note
Corrective "bullrun" might have ended now. Binance and Kraken probably are next targets. Stay safe out there.Note
To clarify a question of someone who was confused:Tether is obviously decoupling from $1 peg and this time it's not fud in my opinion, this holds substance and is more threatening than ever before (hence the tos change in advance can't be coincidence in my opinion, nor the flashcrash of today at kraken which almost got me in huge losses twitter.com/robustus/status/1121554249509425153 ... unless you believe in randomness :))
Meaning, shorting btc with tether is not a smart idea, as tether premium gonna rise, shorts pile in to be in loss a moment later and stopped out or liquidated.
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Added Binance for reference and tether mcap. Binance higher premium, for last 4 months always pumping first and imho manipulating entire crypto using tethers and advance bots and volumizers (covering this as well since they came on the scene tether mcap increased dramatically with influx of coin where origin of money is unknown, but we can speculate on that, I will update for another day). Binance collapse is much bigger than Finex imho, and tether is a big part of their down, so is enforcement agencies going after them when EU is now also targeting malta.Note
Quick update, target is hit (see 1st update), hope you made some quick gains, that was easy. If it goes higher, then likely going to 5800-5840 as I've said, because it would be part of bulltrend.Posting tomorrow new updates.
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So I've read the document and it seems the drug cartel money and police raid in Poland was brought up again. All fud right? This court order is the real deal, we haven't seen anything major so far, yet those pundits (paid and/or useful idiots) keep defending. Ah, the memories of mtgox, look how they still don't got their money back, the exact same thing happened back then!People, when a tsunami is coming and you keep believing that you will be saved and don't have to flee to a higher place and still believe it when the water is rising up till your head when you almost drown, then I don't know what to say to you.
While I'm no lawyer, I have common sense to see fraud has been commited with the 850m in question handled by employees of finex in private and third party transactions, making them liable as well. I can see long prison sentences follow once the court cases going to start. This is the beginning of the end, because what has happened will be pushed on a national and international level. The game is up.
Now follow the money, stakeholders and investors of those companies and you see Kraken, Coinbase and other exchanges all serve the same boss. This answers the question why only on Kraken you can sell tethers for usd.
I've long suspected those exchanges also trade against their clients, which was proven before, so don't short shitcoins on those exchanges, most likely they will steal your money before they delist those worthless ponzis. Those shitcoins, even dead projects that still are being pumped always were meant to extract bitcoins and fiat from you, a total fraud once audits are performed so we can see open book who did the trading and stop loss hunts (20-50% 1 order flash dumps, see chart that monster wick, which happened so many times already), given enough reason to close shop all together when enforced.
Sources:
ag.ny.gov/sites/default/files/2019.04.24_signed_order.pdf
iapps.courts.state.ny.us/fbem/DocumentDisplayServlet?documentId=vIexA1b0spKOnK_PLUS_ZUGTJ3A==&system=prod
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It might and probably make bulltrap this weekend, if so, look for partial sells and keep the rest with a raising stop to lock in profits if you got in (this bounce or before this gamechanger tether exposure (it's not fud, this time is real and the next time would be a blank page or "this domain is seized" when it's too late)).Reminder @ twitter.com/CryptoDanger/status/1121605586431250432
I'm not going to monitor here on forward and take some time off to relax and enjoy the weekend, probably taking an extended one. Good luck.
I expect all cryptos are being distributed right now and those that don't know and trade technicals probably will fall for the bulltrap and lose a lot when the impulse down comes.
More bad news is coming early May with Asian crackdowns and eventually connections of big boss cartel above those major exchanges (cryptocapital and the people behind it), and that probably would be the end for you to cash out, because that most likely will come after the fact.
That's the thing which I've said before, those manipulators are way too greedy and psychotic for the ordinary guy to buy at a good price. When it goes there, they will steal your money when you cannot withdraw...
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Distribution, exit cryptoNote
I see people keep shorting this here, oi is rising while longs are getting paid... So do not short... or it most likely will go up to stop or liquidate you before going down, just sit back and relax. Tethers are still in the game and coins are getting bought up with it... now the lending book for shorts are tiny, so shorters gonna be hurt. Let the manipulators play how they wanna play, it's over for crypto anyway, but doesn't mean price doesn't go up, just saying...Note
Result, shortsqueeze with deviated prices on tether :)I don't think coinbase matters much with their inhouse market making, better compare real fiat selling on kraken and stamp to poll strength of distribution vs accumulation on tethers and mex degens. Deltas between buy vs sell vs vwap are there to see.
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Crackdown happening, bye bye. Came in 30 sec ago.coindesk.com/two-charged-with-running-shadow-banking-service-for-crypto-exchange
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Volumizer in action. I wish we had tickcharts on here...imgur.com/a/AlVcqRe
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Tons of selling on fiat exchanges (coinbase, stamp and kraken). I don't think bulls are going to make their target of 5800-5840. Pumps happen on Binance again (like entire last 4 months) with tethers, which should have been pegged to $0.74, not $1 (dumb arb bots and no vol buyback with no bid liquidity, means smarter patient whales wait for buywalls to dump again)Premium carriers on Binance (usually not so sophisticated people and dumb bots) will know one day know it in their pockets, unless it's all manipulated, which I feel it is, mostly on Binance... There will be lots of losers anyhow, even for later "cashoutters". That's what you get when you are a greedy dumb market manipulator giving bagholders a nice exit in profit or small loss since 6k break. What you gonna do with all those coins with no buying interest at those pricelevels now and regulations in front of us. You realize the exchanges with banking licenses are the last straw? Close them and you're locked in, GG. Overestimation #3 MM since the 5.75k sfp exitscam, only in crypto. You gotta see what such news does in the stockmarket... Careful out there.
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At this pace, might as well withdraw all cash within 2 weeks if nothing happens and short the remaining bitcoin with futures on non fiat and tether exchanges to 3 digits for the next years... shitty market. Imho, we aren't even 50% of the bear market and no big money gonna park their stacks for years on unregulated exchanges, it's finished.Note
Target 2 hit, maybe has some room to do the extended at $5527.5 for the bears.Note
Bitfinex going full retard +$450 premium. With massive bankrun and remaining underwater shorts open with no liquidity to upside, they might go insolvent and ruin their exchange. This has consequences for all tether exchanges, like Binance, Bittred, Poloniex and the like.At good conscious, we can't recommend to stay at this exchange or even stay in this market any longer in general. Debt might be unpayable at this point and socialized losses are not uncommon.
"Full stop" crypto exchanges exit scam in motion like we witnessed at MtGox. No buyvol on fiat exchanges, while Bitfinex drives entire market up. Nobody trading tether, but bots with no liquidity for whales to exit gracefully.
If ever comes out that crypto exchanges are behind the manipulation themselves, this crypto market is finished. It doesn't take a rocket science to see whose behind the manipulation on sentiment and price. If ever related to criminality, expect a no tolerance crackdown. Exchanges are just a tool for what seems always the same people behind them who got in at < $1, who owns the most supply. They couldn't manipulate the PM market as they can with crypto and look how the counterparty has cleaned up that space. Be careful out there, dump to new lows will come, reversal shouldn't take longer than 11 days.
The greed is unreal and the results of driving the market up can have unforeseen consequences, like the prohibition on margin trading for retail and a bad name for what seems most people involved behind the scenes are libertarians and anarchists, which would be defeat of a grander idea in magnitude, namely the counterarguments for their philosophy for regulators to say: "See, you cannot trust or give freedom to exchanges to self regulate, so we will protect you [from your own for your own good]". In other words, the argument of freedom to exploit the gullible for self benefit will most likely be used in this context, results which would punish even good actors in the space.
You think they can't regulate this space worldwide? Think again.
This has happened before with p2p filesharing which has almost been totally destroyed within 2 decades for a centralized solution (i.e. Netflix), yet pundits keep pushing this crypto currency agenda with almost the same lineair timeline of evolution as before, it's actually quite astonishing that people do not see the obvious.
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Short to 3 digits. TP around 2-2.2k, will calculate later. Nice way to be alarmed when you're having fun in weekend... not. Liq at minimum 33.3k, just in case, adding more on the way up until I fit my quota, all the way to 13k if need be.I'm still hedged spot, not selling my safety net until this conspiracy of exchanges pumping stopped. Nice exit scam though, you guys will find out within a few years from now with the names and almost all exchanges in cahoots. There are some leaked logs if you're that interested on google, but that's not my job.
This space needs a serious cleanup with open books and exchanges being audited. I keep people saying to buy alts, just like before, they will be financially destroyed. Watch how the alts gonna die off to make new 2016 lows vs btc pair.
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;)Note
Will update once we get (near) there, nobody received notifications anyway... np, then I'll use it as my journal.Note
Lol, what a joke market, they really pulled this exitscam blowoff top parabolia. I would cash out and don't leave anything on those garbage exchanges. Come back in few-several years when price is at 2-3 digits. Now you can be sure to see crackdown coming. I didn't expect less than those anarchist poking and insulting at government and regulators :) Yeah, governments probably will go away, but guess what, they gonna transform in to districts and the same kind of people will take positions in that, nice utopia dreams though, but in the end, this is planet earth :)Note
It's the 2nd zone, you gotta zoom out (drag vertical price bar) to see it... Didn't expect they would do it, although it was in the back of my mind that they can, and they did... what more to say when exchanges pump and withhold supply, nothing long term bullish about this when defrauding with tethers and playing manipulation games to play false narratives and sentiment manipulation, so they did in the end after all. Good luck stealing few $ from last suckers in this game, hope it was worth the effort of not selling inventory soon to be worthless shit.Note
While the 1st short blew up, the 2nd short block survived the parabolia onslaught, funny.
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