Short

Amended BTC Count

Updated

In light of this morning's move up I am changing my count to a channel down for wave c of 4. I suspect one more leg down to finish off this bear run. We could see some more upside today. I would guess around $8300, and anything over $9300 invalidates this count.

Note

Would really like to see it hold the channel here. Bear div showing as well:

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I want to reiterate my confidence in this channel, notice how well the price respects both the median line as well as the borders. What we should look for now is a 4 hour or daily close outside the border of the channel OR price movement above the 1.618 fib extension here. That would indicate the possibility of this being an impulse wave rather than a motive wave for wave (c):

Note

Obeying the channel thus far....

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Also worth pointing out, broken supports are usually tested, this is a fractal to that rally to $11800 after the Feb 6th low. Although not all retests https://fail...https://www.tradingview.com/x/P9SO5iF8/

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I had redrawn the channel a bit, and it appears we have broken out of it and are now finding support on top of it. Often times channels are briefly broken out of before falling back into. Unless we break above $9300, I am still bearish.

Trade active

See my updated micro count here:

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Price action over the past day has been interesting to say the least. Buy volume is getting sold into and sell orders are being bought up, indicated by the large wicks. There is a large amount of indecision in the market right now. We can vaguely make out a rising wedge, although its choppy. Decent bit of bear divergence seen as well. I wouldn't be surprised if we broke to the upside before pulling back into the trading range between $8200-$7800.

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I think the channel runs parallel to the downtrend line, which we are currently testing. This lines up well with my update on April 14th above. I think we could still wick into this white box, but the red horizontal line here needs to hold or else I'm bullish.

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We are also sitting right under the 65 daily EMA resistance. Something to keep an eye on as well.

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I feel it is worth noting a few interesting things about last night's high. It was a perfect touch of the 50% fib retracement of our last rally to $11700. It also perfectly touched the trend line I have drawn here, the support line we broke and this would be considered a retest. We did, however, get a clean break of the log downtrend-line. It will be interesting to see where we go from here. The white box is the next level of horizontal resistance we must break, as well as the diagonal trend-line we tested.

Note

Zoomed out look at that diagonal trend-line. Note: I drew this a few days back, prior to the retest last night. We still have the potential for this to be wave iv/v of a 5-wave move down of a larger ABC correction. So long as we do not cross above $9300, and thus cross into wave i's price territory, this count is still valid.

Note

Right up on that invalidation https://line...https://www.tradingview.com/x/xUetpsY2/

This is very close to shaking my count up entirely.

Manifested

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