BTC! Subwave 4 details and lesson on trading breakouts!
Updated
WARNING:
I want to describe trading breakouts, versus trading riskier scenarios where you can take hard loses from failed analysis.
Here is a possibile bullish scenario as an alternative to my current bearish ideas:
- My subwaves 1,2,3 down are not part of a bearish 5 wave impulse. They are actually a downward ABC wave.
- That means this upward subwave 4 is actually the start of wave 1 of a new bullish impulse up!
Here’s how to wait for confirmation if we are in fact in the bearish scenario or the bullish scenario:
1. Wait for waves A-B-C of subwave 4 to complete as described. When Subwave 5 starts and the price action heads downwards, watch for it to drop well BELOW the point of save B of subwave 4. This confirms the bearish scenario! If it was a bullish 5 wave impulse up, the third wave up should not drop below the subwave 2 point (which we are currently calling wave B).
2. Wait for waves A-B-C subwave 4 to complete as described. Once we see the downward action of subwave 5…. watch if the prices rises well above the top of subwave 4 (wave C) at any time. This kills the bearish scenario and validates the 5 wave impulse up! Once subwave 4 clearly completes, we should not see it price go above it!
Remember to full confirm the two threshold's I describe above.... we are looking for good volume when we move past those thresholds. Also we don't want to take action (e.g. trigger a buy or sell) right at the threshold, it is easy to get faked out by a sudden peak. Play it safe and take action nicely past the threshold.
Aggressive trades can try to trade every wave but it is very difficult and risky…. masterful asset management is required, with tight intelligent stop order (that won’t get triggered on fake outs), as well as laddered buying and selling (instead of one big buy or sell order….. a laddered series of orders to avoid to change of missing an order fill all together).
The much safer play is to trade confirmed breakouts!
If you find these posts useful and helpful, please follow me, like my posts, share, and comment!
The more positive feedback I get, the more motivated I am to post and update!
Cheers,
LLCoolRS
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice, and is given for educational purposes only. I make the charts, you make your own trades. Never blindly follow internet advice for your financial decisions... any analyst can and will be wrong.
I want to describe trading breakouts, versus trading riskier scenarios where you can take hard loses from failed analysis.
Here is a possibile bullish scenario as an alternative to my current bearish ideas:
- My subwaves 1,2,3 down are not part of a bearish 5 wave impulse. They are actually a downward ABC wave.
- That means this upward subwave 4 is actually the start of wave 1 of a new bullish impulse up!
Here’s how to wait for confirmation if we are in fact in the bearish scenario or the bullish scenario:
1. Wait for waves A-B-C of subwave 4 to complete as described. When Subwave 5 starts and the price action heads downwards, watch for it to drop well BELOW the point of save B of subwave 4. This confirms the bearish scenario! If it was a bullish 5 wave impulse up, the third wave up should not drop below the subwave 2 point (which we are currently calling wave B).
2. Wait for waves A-B-C subwave 4 to complete as described. Once we see the downward action of subwave 5…. watch if the prices rises well above the top of subwave 4 (wave C) at any time. This kills the bearish scenario and validates the 5 wave impulse up! Once subwave 4 clearly completes, we should not see it price go above it!
Remember to full confirm the two threshold's I describe above.... we are looking for good volume when we move past those thresholds. Also we don't want to take action (e.g. trigger a buy or sell) right at the threshold, it is easy to get faked out by a sudden peak. Play it safe and take action nicely past the threshold.
Aggressive trades can try to trade every wave but it is very difficult and risky…. masterful asset management is required, with tight intelligent stop order (that won’t get triggered on fake outs), as well as laddered buying and selling (instead of one big buy or sell order….. a laddered series of orders to avoid to change of missing an order fill all together).
The much safer play is to trade confirmed breakouts!
If you find these posts useful and helpful, please follow me, like my posts, share, and comment!
The more positive feedback I get, the more motivated I am to post and update!
Cheers,
LLCoolRS
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice, and is given for educational purposes only. I make the charts, you make your own trades. Never blindly follow internet advice for your financial decisions... any analyst can and will be wrong.
Note
Lets watch .382 level for Wave B retracement as the 0.236 level has already been breached. 0.236 may continue to hold going forward though... watch it.Note
Also one more note on confirmation at the thresholds:Keep an eye on expected time frame...if a threshold gets hit in an unexpected time frame, then the wave count may be off. For example if we expect a wave segment to take many hours to complete but suddenly we hit the threshold with 15 minutes, we must question our wave count and hold back from trades to avoid risk... use patience to see how waves play out!
Note
Update: WATCH OUT!
It looks like Subwave 4 is complete !? That subsub wave A really had ABC rolled into it... this looks like subwave 5 heading down now!
It will confirm when it breaks strongly below 7850 with volume!
Note
If is does not confirm a break below 7850, then this could be a REALLY deep B wave, and we'll bounce back up for C. Use extreme caution, use stops to limit your losses, and exit to cash if necessary!
Note
Here is a VERY STRONG hint, if you are THEORETICALLY in a long position.You should (for educational purposes) put a stop-loss sell order at perhaps 7840 to limit you losses for your theorical trade, because when it goes strongly below 7850, its gonna dump hard!
Note
If this is subwave 5 and we dump below 7850.... my targets for the bottom of wave 5 are:7620 (0.786 fib)
or
7442 (1.0 fib)
Note
WARNING!Looking at the chart... it looks very unlikely right now that this is a huge B wave dip and we're going to bounce back up for C.
Subwave 4 is complete!. This is the start of subwave 5 down, and when we break 7850, away we go!
Note
Google "bear flag" and you will see a picture of the 5 minute chart. And we know what bear flags do.... THEY"RE BEARISH.I will post an updated wave analysis, but it takes 15 minutes until the published post is public!
Note
Quick update.... I believe we've completed subwave 5 down to complete the entire wave 3 down.... and the breakout upwards we are seeing now is the large wave 4 up!Analysis post to follow!
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