BTCUSD / Retest support after third resistance rejection
Updated
I closed my previous M-formation trade as it appears to have been invalidated with sideways movement.
It still could be in effect, I just want to go with a new trade setup.
Now expecting a third test of 9000-9200 horizontal resistance along with the 14k-10k longterm trendline which will be around the 9350 area over the next 24-48h.
This is a severely difficult level to break through as there are multiple short and long-term resistances coming together in the same trade zone.
I believe that there will be a little bit more pre-halvening FOMO buy pressure, but there wont be anymore short liquidations or major halvening buy pressure coming in as that has already happened, resulting in the previous impulse upwards.
This rejection should then return us down to the support layers below us at 8200-8300, and if that breaks then we'll go test 7800 levels.
I'd expect us to rise after that, coming into the halvening, and I hope for an 8600+ halvening price range.
After halvening, as always, we'll dump. I would prefer not having the big dump happen before, but will pay attention to these zones.
Current trade is now:
entry: 9190, 9240, 9290, 9340
SL: 9390 and 9440
TP1: 83xx
TP2: 81xx
TP3: 78xx
It still could be in effect, I just want to go with a new trade setup.
Now expecting a third test of 9000-9200 horizontal resistance along with the 14k-10k longterm trendline which will be around the 9350 area over the next 24-48h.
This is a severely difficult level to break through as there are multiple short and long-term resistances coming together in the same trade zone.
I believe that there will be a little bit more pre-halvening FOMO buy pressure, but there wont be anymore short liquidations or major halvening buy pressure coming in as that has already happened, resulting in the previous impulse upwards.
This rejection should then return us down to the support layers below us at 8200-8300, and if that breaks then we'll go test 7800 levels.
I'd expect us to rise after that, coming into the halvening, and I hope for an 8600+ halvening price range.
After halvening, as always, we'll dump. I would prefer not having the big dump happen before, but will pay attention to these zones.
Current trade is now:
entry: 9190, 9240, 9290, 9340
SL: 9390 and 9440
TP1: 83xx
TP2: 81xx
TP3: 78xx
Trade active
forgot to update, but yeah - didnt get all orders filled so still hoping it has more juice to go up.if it does i'll quickly exit current short to re-enter more.
i dont think it has the juice to go above 9200 though.
at most a little wick or two in the low 92xx range but i would put 75% of my order below 9200 to get as much filled as possible.
right now i only got 2/5 orders filled (40%) which was not that great....
Trade closed manually
taking short 2% profit below 8900i expect another fake pump to re-enter
it is the weekend afterall....
Trade closed: target reached
OK actually 3.07% profit.....lets get another entry and repeat....
Trade closed manually
Closed shorts again for small profit.The big update here is that - we are not yet out of the current trading zone.
The previous dip was just a retest of support WITHIN the current trading zone.
We have not moved yet to another trading zone.
Also the retest of support is a bullish signal so things are starting to look more balanced again.
It is bearish however that we actually did go and test the support, and even broke down into the 8500s. There was no strong support bounce, not much volume, not much reaction. This was not the actual market move. It is still ahead. We are basically "swing trading" within the zone right now.
I am not sure if I am going to be long or short and will re-analyze after we retest 9k resistance.
At the very least we got 2 swings with 3-5% profit and very low risk.
I was actually going to long last night, but didnt want to stay up and wait for another 2-4h candles to print before confirming that the support was holding, so I just went to bed even though I was 90% sure we would bounce from that support. I was watching it the first 2-3 hours and it clearly showed we were not going to break down. Very little volume, slow movements.
Anyway now - pay attention to 9k resistance again. Thats 9k to 9.2k level.
To break above 9350 trendline from 2019/2020 highs, is what we would need to become bullish.
That trendline is coming down as well, so it will be closer to 9300 level over this week.
It is on my chart so you can refer to that as the true break point which we must break above to become bullish.
Note
also general rule of thumb.if you can (if youre monitoring a trade). always exit a position if the breakdown/up doesnt have volume.
why?
because then its not an actual market move. its just another swing wave.
exiting the position gives you:
1) at least some small guaranteed profit
2) another opportunity to trade for compounded profit
3) eliminates risk of loss if the next market movement were to go against your trade
always react to market especially with open positions.
never let your trades run, if market is showing you that your TPs arent going to be hit in the current market movement.
ive shorted twice now on 2 separate waves in the current trading zone. for 3.07% profit and 4.12% profit.
i am now out of any position with no risk of loss, with 2 winning trades, even if they are small and not much to write home about.
but the important thing is no risk of loss, and continued profitable trades.
i have learned this all the hard way myself over the last few months so sharing the strategies i now use which are really benefiting me well.
trade smart! no emo! no fomo!
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