Short

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Bitcoin Trader's Thread (Part 32)

Welcome to EBall's trader's thread. Where I analyze Bitcoin's wave count with alternatives and ultimately don't give a damn about what news causes the price action. This is a place of many updates, long threads, and the goal of making money. Opinions change quite often here. Investors beware, this is not the place for you.

I still think we are downtrending. Can we still get to our previous goal of sub $8k?... No idea.

Money time.

Trade active

Boom. 25 minutes in and the first update is already here. Nearly every time frame past 30 minutes has the 55 EMA sitting in this green zone. Our downward sloping resistance should serve as a support for now. Based on the indicators, I think we hit this stupid little WXY pattern where we bounce off our support zone and reach my 10.5k target. The green zone is where I will look for profit if we cant break past it.

Trade has been active, but since its a new post, here it is.

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I'm gonna try to give some more transparency in my positions and keep you all updated as I move along. I just took profit here from my position at $10,451. cause I think we're gonna get another few pushes that may look something like this. My inner scalper just whispered in my ear and said "take profit elijah, take profit." Despite the sell walls, Indicators show another push. I also think we need another grouping of weaker RSI peaks on the 5 minute clock. Guys, i swear, everytime I put a target on here, It always hits that bastard, It just does it in the most peculiar way.

In the mean time, I will be glancing at the screen and studying for my test tomorrow. I figured that doing other things while I trade increases my patience tenfold.

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Ehhh, volume kicked, we're pushing down. I re-entered :(. Sometimes my scalping voice is stupid. But I swear, if this bounces and hits my target I'm gonna be pissed.

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My thoughts

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Alright guys, before I go to sleep, I'm not leaving any trades open. I think we drop to the low 10k area, but I think we hit that funky Y upwards. Even though a lot of my indicators are showing pressure to go down, I can't trust that in this risky situation. I think we can bounce off the the collective EMAs before we really tear through them.

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2 updates coming back to back for you all. Sorry I was not able to notify when I shorted, but I was literally in-between workouts for football this morning when I noticed that price level, and I opened a short at 10840 on my phone. I told you guys it was going to find a way to hit my target, but that previous move verified a few things for me. I am now under the bias that the previous move was a 5 wave structure (WHICH CAN STILL FAIL AND BECOME "X"). I now have confirmed the previous WXY scenario that we saw, and it is possible that the correction is over. BUT, time will surely tell with this next correction, and the next update will show you why.

Very quickly, here is my bias:
1-2 days (Bearish)
3-10 days (Neutral)
1 month (Neutral)
1+ months (Bullish)

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Bullishness is building up in the air. But does that mean I'm a bull?

Alright guys, my short is being left open for the day unless I see some bull crap forming. I'm off to finish studying for this exam. Good luck!

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Before I fully go. Here is what I mean as "bull crap." If we move up, then this would be the case. This would make wave 3 shorter than 1, causing wave 5 to be the shortest and stop at resistance.

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Could be wrong here. But I think the bull crap is going to happen. 1 hour Stoch is showing for another push, the last RSI was stronger than the previous. Volume is very low, and no one is jumping this sell wall. So I took profit. And if it drops further, no problem. I'm not greedy.

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Critical Apex here.
Blue lines: Downward Channel
White Lines: Upward Channel

Formation of a triangle between the blue and white channel indicates critical apex, where we determine if this correction continues down, or we extend to this 5th wave. My bias says we extend, and if we do extend, we target the .618 extension of the previous wave at $11k.

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As I was watching a $1.7M buy wall get torn down, I joined in and shorted. Watching closely for reversal, as I'm confused on what the hell is going on. But i am indeed, in the short.

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You guys thinking the same thing?

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Very sad I missed the short last night. I set a sell order, and changed my mind and removed it. My alarm went off in the middle of the night to check the market and I fell back to sleep. Very very sad. LOL. Anyways, here are my thoughts. Based on what happened I think we have to consider this as an extended 3rd wave. And that the first impulse wave with wave 2 retracing a lot, we must then assume that this wave 4 will not retrace much.

I'm very tempted to go long here, but I need more confirmation. My short-term indicators (under 3 hours), such as the Stoch, imply that we have more juice. So if this count is correct, then I'd target the neckline resistance at a .618 extension of wave 3 for wave 5. Which is a pretty neutral stance, more conservative if anything. A bullish scenario would imply that we get an extended 5th. A bearish scenario would assume that we are done with the impulse wave and we fall down to the support box. I'm very conflicted on how to feel here, but like I said, I'm very tempted to go long. I will see how this plays out some more, make up my mind and let you all know.

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Alright, I think I'm convinced on going long. I'm going to wait for a rollover on the 3 min MACD before I enter, while making sure we keep a higher low. I'm going to ultimately target the $11,400 zone. Like I said, my shorter time frame indicators are showing bullishness. I really wanted to enter around 10450 area, but I needed more confirmation. With this volume and expanding wedge wave count, I think I'd like an entry, with very keen eyes on possible reversals. I'm getting more and more bullish on BTC. The market is showing in its favor.

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We now have this look forming.

Elijah_Trading

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Elijah_Trading

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