Bearish XLK: has been underperforming for a while now...

...made a rounding top starting December, trapped the bulls on a 3-day bullish island reversal in January. Ended up in the middle of July '24 gap down.
Negative YTD, under the VWAP from the top. It was never about NVDIA or DeepSeek news.

Note

From #TheStrat point of view,
is really toxic. The week confirmed the monthly downside reversal. A break of the Q4 midpoint 230.42 would target Q4 low 218.95 (a 5% move)

Trade active

Closed above the short trigger point, but yet again in the middle of the Jul 17 gap down -- a void saying CAUTION several times. Should the Friday's bar be reversed next week, the trade is off. Until then the short thesis remains.

Note

Cleared the summer gap down (when I should have closed the SHORT), but momentum is broken, and the overall market is waiting for direction. Chop. Will close, if the Fed props up the market, otherwise fine to keep the trade active.

Note

In hindsight, I should have closed the short right above the July gap down and re-entered on weakness. But underperformance vs. other sectors and general market in limbo were telling me to hold. Note, the target was almost reached (219), so definitely closing this IF the March candle turns green.

Trade closed: target reached

gkretinin

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gkretinin

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