Stellar Lumens $XLMUSD Starting 3-3-3 targeting 0.36 initially
Stellar Lumens 
XLMUSD appears to be preparing to break up very soon. I apologize for the messy chart, but there are a lot of things going on that I want to point out.
I noted in my last couple of charts that I believedXLM had finished its correction wave and was starting its Wave 3. Inside that wave are sub waves, marked in medium blue, and inside that wave ive put in the structure for another series in pink. Hope this make sense. Just remember that there are always waves inside waves inside waves and so on.
With
BTC pushing 40k soon its going to pull the rest of the market up again. Most likely today, though it could happen as late as Saturday. It looks like we are have started the 3-3-3 wave. with 3-3-5 and 3-3 looking to target 0.36, which is also around the Monthly R5. However, the use of the Monthly Pivot here is complicated because R5 was blown so fast, in the space of 2 days.
These structures are all aligning for 3-5 to end around 0.44 and Wave 3 to end at 0.50 which is perfect because its a psycological level.
I also added that downward trend line to show that we had broken past it. I am relatively confident there is minimal risk to the downside below 0.22 at this point.
These wave structures can change because we are in a group of 3's. Wave 3's can extend quite a bit, to the 1.272 and even the 1.618. If this happens I will update this posting.
For those looking for an exit.. pesonally, i wouldnt exit on a wave 3, but wait for a wave 5.
Disclaimer: Dont follow the advice of random people on the internet. This is a hobby of mine. I do actively trade crypto, but I am by no means an expert.
XLMUSD appears to be preparing to break up very soon. I apologize for the messy chart, but there are a lot of things going on that I want to point out. I noted in my last couple of charts that I believed
XLM had finished its correction wave and was starting its Wave 3. Inside that wave are sub waves, marked in medium blue, and inside that wave ive put in the structure for another series in pink. Hope this make sense. Just remember that there are always waves inside waves inside waves and so on.With
BTC pushing 40k soon its going to pull the rest of the market up again. Most likely today, though it could happen as late as Saturday. It looks like we are have started the 3-3-3 wave. with 3-3-5 and 3-3 looking to target 0.36, which is also around the Monthly R5. However, the use of the Monthly Pivot here is complicated because R5 was blown so fast, in the space of 2 days. These structures are all aligning for 3-5 to end around 0.44 and Wave 3 to end at 0.50 which is perfect because its a psycological level.
I also added that downward trend line to show that we had broken past it. I am relatively confident there is minimal risk to the downside below 0.22 at this point.
These wave structures can change because we are in a group of 3's. Wave 3's can extend quite a bit, to the 1.272 and even the 1.618. If this happens I will update this posting.
For those looking for an exit.. pesonally, i wouldnt exit on a wave 3, but wait for a wave 5.
Disclaimer: Dont follow the advice of random people on the internet. This is a hobby of mine. I do actively trade crypto, but I am by no means an expert.
Note
A break below 3-1-2 would invalidate the whole setup. while its rare for a wave 3 to not hit the 1.0 fib ext, its still possible... unless we see a drop below wave 2. if we hold here wave 5 can extend. this happens less often than wave 3, a lot less, but still technically possible. usually i see wave 5 in crypto stall out at 0.786, not wave 3.
Note
This could be turning into a 'complex' Wave 2. Instead of a 'simple' ABC we could be looking at a double or even a triple ABC. We are technically still in 3-3, but now it looks like instead of 3-3-1 we are in 3-3-4. As long as 3-3-2 hold were ok technically. As I mentioned in another chart, i think the move, one way or another, will happen saturday.Note
0.2875 was just breached. This technically invalidates the sub-sub impulse wave count. I am trying to figure out where the count is. I think we will be reverting back to 3-2 and turning that into a complex correction, either a double or triple ABC.Note
Note
definately in a complex ABC 3-2 wave right now. 3-3 has been invalidatedNote
Potential 'Irregular Flat Correction' marked in green. This is pretty rare, but possible. Usually B never goes above A, so it can look like the start of Wave 3 but is still part of the correction wave.
This would make us in 3-2.
Note
i zoomed into see if i could justify he irregular correction pattern. its supposed to be a 3-3-5. its not obvious. if i go in to 1h some of its there, but if i go in farther to the 15m, then the B leg is WAY longer than 3.... That said, you arent really supposed to use 15m to count sub waves inside a 4h chart. Problem is, the A wave then has structure problems as its basically straight down. Looking at the 2h chart you can see the pattern inside wave A. I absolutely hate correction waves, especially the complex ones.. which this now is. There are so many variations that you cant really see it until after the fact.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.