XRP: C Wave will soon begin and A Long-term View of XRP
Updated
Looking at the 30-min, we can see that all of our IC indicators are pointing in a bullish fashion, with our base line -barely- below the conversion line. Zooming out to our 4-hour, we can see the overall chart is still bearish, which signifies that we're still going through a correction for the crazy uptrend that occurred a week and a half ago.
This pullback has caused some fear in the market, but rest assured, if you look towards the daily, you will see that the cloud indicators are still extremely bullish in the long-term, meaning that this temporary pullback is just that––temporary.
Beyond technical analysis, I've been considering many factors regarding the next all-time high and long-term holding for XRP. Keep in mind the following topics:
1. BTC halving
2. The presidential election in November
3. Brad Garlinghouse's stance on focusing on one vertical at a time, dominating the remittance market, then shifting focus
4. BG's stance that Ripple is a blockchain-as-a-service company
5. Whether or not Ripple will be classified as a security or not
1. All of these have the potential to affect the price of XRP significantly.
The BTC halving is an event that will occur in May and has historically caused the price to rise over time. Whether there may be a linear relationship (between the day of the event and the duration afterward to the next all-time high, in days) deduced or not is debatable since markets are not very predictable to the extent of "timing the market", the deduction still holds that the price of BTC will follow the more general trend: that after the halving, the price of BTC will increase over time, thereby increasing more awareness/sentiment over the entire crypto market as a whole, becoming a catalyst for other altcoins to rise.
2. Personally, I don't think it'd matter if either the GOP or Democrats win the presidential election. Though the GOP tends to be more lenient with taxes (not saying the exact type of tax matters since we're only factoring this in as a measure for sentiment and not logical investing), I believe that people will construe the election in a positive way, due to the strong uptrend that we will see in the coming months. As BG puts it, "liquidity begets liquidity", and therefore FOMO will beget FOMO. Though this is -completely- lacking evidence and is based on my own opinion, I believe that the composite man will make use of this event and bump up the price to encourage other retail investors to follow suit.
3. Ripple's focus on one vertical at a time is what is necessary for this space. As an investor, I am happy when Brad Garlinghouse says that he is working with regulators and trying to get banks on board with just using Ripple's software (at the expense of not using XRP in their systems) as a way to shift people's views on crypto. He understands that patience is a virtue that is necessary to succeed in this space and that trust between regulators and banks will give him the connections and foundation for Ripple to succeed in the long-term. By allowing banks to try out Ripple's software, you get them used to the idea that crypto companies might not be a bad thing after all, and then you slowly increase adoption within the space. It should be noted that these banks operate on a network, so any bank's success from using Ripple is likely to spread trust and adoption due to the network effect. He understood that marketing XRP needed to focus on the liquidity aspect of the product, which is extremely desirable for banks to have, as it allows them to be more flexible with their assets.
4. In his recent interview with Julia Chatterley (youtube.com/watch?v=2bghw1K7pYw), he states that Ripple is more than just a remittance company. He's trying to make it the Amazon of moving money around the world. This is the type of mentality I look for when I am investing in the long-term. He's a competent CEO and his goals and vision align with mine. I know there's a big fuss in the crypto space about big banking and decentralization, but at the end of the day, you've gotta remind yourself what you're really in it for. The big bucks. The only way you can succeed is if you choose to work with the system (both the regulators and banks) and the way he's doing it, he's going to succeed in making advantageous connections and gain long-term dominance in his space as a consequence. Imagine investing in XRP during the next bull run and they announce that they've dominated the remittance market and have plans of moving into the derivatives market with their previous customers more than ready to be on board because of past proven success. That shit will EXPLODE.
5. Finally to the biggest topic of them all: will XRP be classified as a security?
If you use the Howey Test to determine if XRP is a security or not, you'll see that Ripple's token fits -extremely- well into its categories. There is a monetary investment that was made at its inception to fund its projects. There is an expectation for profits, as investors attempt to seek alpha from betting on Ripple's product. The XRP token, although is maintained by a distributed system, is a product that banks use from Ripple, which is a central entity that gains money from the use of their product. Everything here fits the test. The only difference here is that the security itself is also a product, which requires more clarity from regulators.
Some people fear XRP becoming a security, but I don't think that's the right mentality. I think XRP becoming a security would legitimize it in the finance industry and make it more than a crypto asset to old-school investors. Though early adopters/investors of XRP tend to be anti-government, anti-centralization, anti-big-banking sorts of people, during the next bull run, the majority of people will want to invest in something that is more trustworthy. Something that is regulated and validated by both banks and the law. Making it a security would make XRP more desirable to this crowd of retail investors and cause it to pop since trust is an -extremely- big issue in this space.
In short, when it comes to XRP, I'm looking at my strategy from both a TA perspective and a long-term investor's perspective. Since I believe in Ripple's product and Brad Garlinghouse's long-term vision for the company but I still want to ensure some profits, I will attempt to cash out at what I believe will be the next ATH while also holding some for the long-term to wait and see if Ripple will actually become the Amazon of cross-border payments.
This pullback has caused some fear in the market, but rest assured, if you look towards the daily, you will see that the cloud indicators are still extremely bullish in the long-term, meaning that this temporary pullback is just that––temporary.
Beyond technical analysis, I've been considering many factors regarding the next all-time high and long-term holding for XRP. Keep in mind the following topics:
1. BTC halving
2. The presidential election in November
3. Brad Garlinghouse's stance on focusing on one vertical at a time, dominating the remittance market, then shifting focus
4. BG's stance that Ripple is a blockchain-as-a-service company
5. Whether or not Ripple will be classified as a security or not
1. All of these have the potential to affect the price of XRP significantly.
The BTC halving is an event that will occur in May and has historically caused the price to rise over time. Whether there may be a linear relationship (between the day of the event and the duration afterward to the next all-time high, in days) deduced or not is debatable since markets are not very predictable to the extent of "timing the market", the deduction still holds that the price of BTC will follow the more general trend: that after the halving, the price of BTC will increase over time, thereby increasing more awareness/sentiment over the entire crypto market as a whole, becoming a catalyst for other altcoins to rise.
2. Personally, I don't think it'd matter if either the GOP or Democrats win the presidential election. Though the GOP tends to be more lenient with taxes (not saying the exact type of tax matters since we're only factoring this in as a measure for sentiment and not logical investing), I believe that people will construe the election in a positive way, due to the strong uptrend that we will see in the coming months. As BG puts it, "liquidity begets liquidity", and therefore FOMO will beget FOMO. Though this is -completely- lacking evidence and is based on my own opinion, I believe that the composite man will make use of this event and bump up the price to encourage other retail investors to follow suit.
3. Ripple's focus on one vertical at a time is what is necessary for this space. As an investor, I am happy when Brad Garlinghouse says that he is working with regulators and trying to get banks on board with just using Ripple's software (at the expense of not using XRP in their systems) as a way to shift people's views on crypto. He understands that patience is a virtue that is necessary to succeed in this space and that trust between regulators and banks will give him the connections and foundation for Ripple to succeed in the long-term. By allowing banks to try out Ripple's software, you get them used to the idea that crypto companies might not be a bad thing after all, and then you slowly increase adoption within the space. It should be noted that these banks operate on a network, so any bank's success from using Ripple is likely to spread trust and adoption due to the network effect. He understood that marketing XRP needed to focus on the liquidity aspect of the product, which is extremely desirable for banks to have, as it allows them to be more flexible with their assets.
4. In his recent interview with Julia Chatterley (youtube.com/watch?v=2bghw1K7pYw), he states that Ripple is more than just a remittance company. He's trying to make it the Amazon of moving money around the world. This is the type of mentality I look for when I am investing in the long-term. He's a competent CEO and his goals and vision align with mine. I know there's a big fuss in the crypto space about big banking and decentralization, but at the end of the day, you've gotta remind yourself what you're really in it for. The big bucks. The only way you can succeed is if you choose to work with the system (both the regulators and banks) and the way he's doing it, he's going to succeed in making advantageous connections and gain long-term dominance in his space as a consequence. Imagine investing in XRP during the next bull run and they announce that they've dominated the remittance market and have plans of moving into the derivatives market with their previous customers more than ready to be on board because of past proven success. That shit will EXPLODE.
5. Finally to the biggest topic of them all: will XRP be classified as a security?
If you use the Howey Test to determine if XRP is a security or not, you'll see that Ripple's token fits -extremely- well into its categories. There is a monetary investment that was made at its inception to fund its projects. There is an expectation for profits, as investors attempt to seek alpha from betting on Ripple's product. The XRP token, although is maintained by a distributed system, is a product that banks use from Ripple, which is a central entity that gains money from the use of their product. Everything here fits the test. The only difference here is that the security itself is also a product, which requires more clarity from regulators.
Some people fear XRP becoming a security, but I don't think that's the right mentality. I think XRP becoming a security would legitimize it in the finance industry and make it more than a crypto asset to old-school investors. Though early adopters/investors of XRP tend to be anti-government, anti-centralization, anti-big-banking sorts of people, during the next bull run, the majority of people will want to invest in something that is more trustworthy. Something that is regulated and validated by both banks and the law. Making it a security would make XRP more desirable to this crowd of retail investors and cause it to pop since trust is an -extremely- big issue in this space.
In short, when it comes to XRP, I'm looking at my strategy from both a TA perspective and a long-term investor's perspective. Since I believe in Ripple's product and Brad Garlinghouse's long-term vision for the company but I still want to ensure some profits, I will attempt to cash out at what I believe will be the next ATH while also holding some for the long-term to wait and see if Ripple will actually become the Amazon of cross-border payments.
Note
Adding to the consequences of whether XRP will be determined as a security or will be allowed to continue to operate as a digital asset, there shouldn't really be any fear at all since EOS only got slapped with a small fine from the SEC.We also know that Ripple lobbies in DC and that they have many connections with banks and frequently work with regulators, so suffice to say that if XRP is determined as a security, Ripple and XRP will still be unaffected in the grander scheme of things.
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