XRPLong
3 XRP projection based on crypto multiples from intrinsic value
The total transaction demand (D) is derived from three key components: Ripple’s On-Demand Liquidity (ODL), retail trading volume, and on-chain fees. ODL facilitates cross-border payments, with 60% of its annual $11.856 billion volume utilizing XRP, contributing $7.1136 billion USD/year in demand. Retail trading volume adds another $257.24 billion USD/year. On-chain fees, derived from XRP burned during transactions (1,857,194 XRP/year at an average price of $0.55), contribute approximately $1.021 million USD/year. Combining these components, the total transaction demand (D) is approximately $264.35 billion USD/year.
Using the quantity theory of money, the required XRP supply (M_required) is calculated as D divided by V, where V represents velocity. Substituting D = $264.35 billion USD/year and V = 4.34, the required XRP supply is approximately 60.89 billion XRP. Using the reported circulating supply of 56.93 billion XRP from CoinMarketCap and the intrinsic price formula P = D divided by M_circulating, the intrinsic price of XRP is P = $264.35 ÷ 56.93 ≈ $4.64 USD/XRP.
Cryptocurrencies typically trade at multiples of their intrinsic value, reflecting speculative market dynamics. Using conservative multiples, XRP’s projected price ranges are as follows: at 1.5x intrinsic value, $6.96 per XRP; at 3x intrinsic value, $13.92 per XRP; and at 5x intrinsic value, $23.20 per XRP. These projections reflect potential price scenarios under varying market conditions, from conservative trading to speculative bull markets.
While speculative bull market cycles could push XRP’s price as high as $23.20 (a 5x multiple), a realistic estimate in a moderately speculative market suggests XRP could trade at 3x its intrinsic value, or approximately $13.92 per XRP. This price projection reflects a balance between XRP’s utility-driven demand and market sentiment. However, in highly speculative market conditions, XRP could reach $23.20 during a peak bull cycle.
Using the quantity theory of money, the required XRP supply (M_required) is calculated as D divided by V, where V represents velocity. Substituting D = $264.35 billion USD/year and V = 4.34, the required XRP supply is approximately 60.89 billion XRP. Using the reported circulating supply of 56.93 billion XRP from CoinMarketCap and the intrinsic price formula P = D divided by M_circulating, the intrinsic price of XRP is P = $264.35 ÷ 56.93 ≈ $4.64 USD/XRP.
Cryptocurrencies typically trade at multiples of their intrinsic value, reflecting speculative market dynamics. Using conservative multiples, XRP’s projected price ranges are as follows: at 1.5x intrinsic value, $6.96 per XRP; at 3x intrinsic value, $13.92 per XRP; and at 5x intrinsic value, $23.20 per XRP. These projections reflect potential price scenarios under varying market conditions, from conservative trading to speculative bull markets.
While speculative bull market cycles could push XRP’s price as high as $23.20 (a 5x multiple), a realistic estimate in a moderately speculative market suggests XRP could trade at 3x its intrinsic value, or approximately $13.92 per XRP. This price projection reflects a balance between XRP’s utility-driven demand and market sentiment. However, in highly speculative market conditions, XRP could reach $23.20 during a peak bull cycle.
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