XRP has entered a pivotal consolidation phase within its long-term up-channel. Below is a purely technical breakdown of the key elements underpinning the current setup:
1. Channel Low + 0.618 Fib Confluence
Higher-Timeframe Channel Support: Price retested the rising channel’s lower boundary—drawn from multi-month lows—and held flawlessly.
Fibonacci Coincidence: That same level aligns with the 0.618 retracement of the prior impulse (swing high to pivot low), creating a robust demand zone.
2. Moving Average & Volume Structure
200-Day MA Validation: XRP has reclaimed and hovered above its 200-day moving average, a critical long-term trend filter signaling buyer control.
Volume Confirmation: Recent bounces off the channel low saw above-average daily volume, highlighting institutional accumulation at this confluence.
3. Value Area Low and Market Structure
Value Area Low (VAL): The overnight swing formed a higher low above the monthly VAL, reinforcing support and trapping aggressive shorts.
Higher High Formation: On a break above the previous swing high, XRP confirmed a shift to higher highs, completing a bullish market structure flip.
Upside Projections & Resistance Barriers
Short-Term Targets: A rise to the range mid and Point of Control (POC) at ~$2.80 is the next logical step, testing interim liquidity.
Major Resistance: The primary hurdle lies at the previous high near $3.00, where the channel’s midpoint and a bearish order block coincide.
Risk Management & Invalidations
Stop-Loss Region: A close below both the 200-day MA and channel low would invalidate the bullish thesis, shifting bias back to neutral/bearish.
Position Sizing: Given tight confluence, position sizes should be managed conservatively with tight stops just beneath the channel support.
Summary: XRP’s ability to hold the confluence of channel support, the 0.618 Fib retracement, and the 200-day MA—backed by volume—paints a high-probability bullish case. Confirmation on a sustained break above the recent swing high would project a run toward $3.00, while failure to maintain these levels would warrant a reassessment of the trend.
1. Channel Low + 0.618 Fib Confluence
Higher-Timeframe Channel Support: Price retested the rising channel’s lower boundary—drawn from multi-month lows—and held flawlessly.
Fibonacci Coincidence: That same level aligns with the 0.618 retracement of the prior impulse (swing high to pivot low), creating a robust demand zone.
2. Moving Average & Volume Structure
200-Day MA Validation: XRP has reclaimed and hovered above its 200-day moving average, a critical long-term trend filter signaling buyer control.
Volume Confirmation: Recent bounces off the channel low saw above-average daily volume, highlighting institutional accumulation at this confluence.
3. Value Area Low and Market Structure
Value Area Low (VAL): The overnight swing formed a higher low above the monthly VAL, reinforcing support and trapping aggressive shorts.
Higher High Formation: On a break above the previous swing high, XRP confirmed a shift to higher highs, completing a bullish market structure flip.
Upside Projections & Resistance Barriers
Short-Term Targets: A rise to the range mid and Point of Control (POC) at ~$2.80 is the next logical step, testing interim liquidity.
Major Resistance: The primary hurdle lies at the previous high near $3.00, where the channel’s midpoint and a bearish order block coincide.
Risk Management & Invalidations
Stop-Loss Region: A close below both the 200-day MA and channel low would invalidate the bullish thesis, shifting bias back to neutral/bearish.
Position Sizing: Given tight confluence, position sizes should be managed conservatively with tight stops just beneath the channel support.
Summary: XRP’s ability to hold the confluence of channel support, the 0.618 Fib retracement, and the 200-day MA—backed by volume—paints a high-probability bullish case. Confirmation on a sustained break above the recent swing high would project a run toward $3.00, while failure to maintain these levels would warrant a reassessment of the trend.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.