Long

XRP / USDT - THE BULLS ARE HERE!!!

Updated

XRP is prime for its bull time, the transparent blue price action projection is based on its previous movement coupled with Elliot wave theory and market geometry making a lot of sense
I've constantly made small edits to this chart idea from nearly a year ago and i would say that its at its most accurate version at the moment.

here's a pic of the entire chart for those on their phones or unable to see the chart above properly.

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here is a close up of the current move and the base of the price projection

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Update:
we could be either setting a 5th of the macro 1 or a 1 of the macro 3, either way, i thought i'd also show my next short-term trade setup here:

will update once i can confirm this count...

Trade active

I'm actually trading the xrp/jpy pair, which is a tiny bit different meaning my trade is yet to be activated, but if i was trading it on bitfinex or polo then it would be active

my jpy order deets:
entry price: 39.49
position: 10k xrp
leverage: 25x
exit target: 43.78

** Disclaimer: this is not trading advise, trade at your own risk **

Order cancelled

Update:
I decided to cancel my orders, before they go through on xrp/jpy. I would say the same applies to xrp/usdt.

The reason for this is that there's quite a bit of bearish divergence on xrp/usdt, as well as a possible 5 counts already being put in for the 5th wave, meaning we've compeleted a 1 wave possibly, and going down for wave 2.

I will post a pic soon to explain, but basically, the potential profits from this trade didn't yield an enough R:R ratio for me to justify risking the downside.

will update with a pic shortly; its important to note that this does not change the bullish view on xrp at all, and still is following the same path as shown in the long term idea posted above.

cheers.

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Update:
as promised, here's a picture of what i think might be happening:

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as you can see in the last post, there is a bearish divergence occurring, we seem to have put in a triangle A-E pattern for the B wave, and are going down for the C wave..

I personally think that once C wave is reached, it will not conclude the correction for the completed wave 1, and while its possible that it may, experience tells me that this correction will form into some sort of a complex WXY correction.

Wave 2 is merely a rough projection; One could argue that we could short here, but as I believe the bull market has begun, I do not want to take the risk of shorting in a strong market.

once I can confirm the end of the correction, wave 3, a.k.a, the money making wave should commence.

stay tuned fam!
cheers :)

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...
Just wanted to remind everyone following along with this idea that my main long term chart at the top has already predicted a move down after reaching current high of approx. $0.38. So don't be discouraged, i promise there will be a big move up after in the next few days... :)

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Update:
as mentioned before, we've finally started to move lower out of that X/B wave triangle

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First algo target hit - there is still a chance that we have only put in a wave 4 and might go up for a 5th before the correction for wave 2 that im alluding to here, but I guess we can wait and see.

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Update:
we've put in the 3 and 4 of the C / W wave it seems and the next target is at the 0.5 shown here. once this completes, we should see a decent reaction up, from there, we can then determine if we're done with wave 2 of macro structure, or we enter an X wave and continue on with further complex correction to complete a WXY formation for the 2...
keep in mind that the possibility of this being a completed 4 wave of a micro 5th up to complete the 1 is still there, though i think it is unlikely. will continue to update here :)

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Update:
I've cleaned up the chart a bit so its easier to follow; we can see that it seems we have a complex correction as expected previously.

we may be ready for the next wave once we reach Y. will continue to update my thoughts on the short term movements of this chart and post any trades I'll be taking, but for now, only going to monitor this until it reaches target or a good trade setup presents itself.

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Update:
stay tuned as I try to figure out the section of the chart inside the white box...
I've had a few slightly alternate counts and this is one of them. The long term daily chart remains the same, but short term corrections of xrp are always not easy to analyse. will keep you posted fam!

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Update:
quick update on the weekly chart:
earlier today the weekly candle closed with its respective rsi showing a clear bullish divergence. Expecting the price to go to a minimum of 45c and possibly to around 55c - 60c within the next week or so.

However, short term, i expect the price to drop a little further still before the move to 45c. Will update with the short term price targets soon

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Update:
so I've slightly updated the count and made the highest peak the 5th wave, its a little bit uncertain but the correction since then seems like a proper WXY with the X being a double Z, so it seems like this is checking out..

the first short term target will be around 34.5c - 33.3c region, with the possibility of going all the way to the 0.618 fib of approximately 32.5c region.

as an alternate count, there is a slim chance that the price action inside the channel is actually a leading diagonal, as it doesnt violate any rules for it, but I highly doubt this for a few reasons; nevertheless its always good to keep different possibilities in mind so that we're prepared for anything regardless.

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Update:
So we have put in the X it seems, I've shifted the abc's of the X wave to make sense, i expect an abc down now for the Y to complete, with the box being the 1st target region around the 0.5 fib

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Update:
here's what i expect the price action to look like roughly, of course keep in mind that we could also go lower to the 0.618/golden zone, but lets hit the first target first :p

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Update:

so the B wave seems to be in, getting within touching distance of the edge of the pitchfork's 100% line, also love how well the median line held the A wave and showed the strong reaction of the b wave there, this shows good structure and that the pitchfork is working. of course its not the only pitchfork at play, but thats for another update.

I still think the target should at least be met before any further big push upwards, but it might be taking a bit longer than shown.

Side note:

I've also had my eye on the bitstamp exchange's chart for xrp/usd as well for a long time, and noticed the final dip we experienced before we reversed went lower than most exchanges, kraken also did a similar thing I believe, they both spiked down to ~27.5c, breaking the previous low in the yellow box, which has not been broken on any of the other main exchanges (to my knowledge - polo, finex, binance all didn't break it)

this is why i have started all my counts from the white box on all my charts as well, even though non of them got that low...

this bitstamp chart however is also showing a good pitchfork setup due to that spike down containing the price action very well, i do think that at the very least we should see a retest of the median line before even thinking of going up again

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Update:

so after some clarity I have been able to map out what seems to be going on...

so as we can see, the B wave is not done after all, and we are currently putting in the C wave of the B wave for the Y... if you kept up with this statement, well done! you are a fractal genius haha :D I still expect the price to head to the initial target, which is ~$0.34 on Bitfinex (probably slightly lower on poloniex). This will be first target but may hit some slightly lower targets as well, will update as the price action continues regarding this.

I'd like to point out that while this is now my primary count, there is still a possible chance that the C for the Y may already be in, and we are currently putiting in a micro wave 1 of a wave 3, however due to a few different factors, as well as the overall volume actually being quite low (around ) compared to previous ~ during the pumps to 38c, i think its quite unlikely.

Now if you've been following this post, I've mentioned previously that I'm actually trading the xrp/jpy pair, so here's the chart for that as well. it is quite similar to the xrp/usd chart I just posted above...

As always will keep you posted on any major update, stay frosty! the long Opp will come ;)

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Update:
So my long term outlook on xrp has not changed, i still believe in the major chart posted for this idea.

However below is my slightly overdue short-term analysis of the recent price action:
Its possible that we have completed the correction for wave 2 assuming the push to roughly 38c was an impulse for a 1 wave of a 1 of the macro wave 3.
its possible that we are still not done correcting of course, but to keep the count continuing as i have been so far, its still a valid count.

Assuming that this is correct, we can expect something roughly along the lines of the image below to complete a 5 waves structure upwards, which i believe would only be completing a 1 wave of the macro wave 3. (note: its also possible that we just put in a giant wave 3 and 5 for the current price action and surpass these targets, will update accordingly)

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Update:
so here is the progress so far, we seem to have completed the 3 and are now putting in the 4th wave. once thats done, i expect one more wave up for the 5th to complete the 1st impulse up for a 5 waves up structure. lets see how we go...

please note that there is a chance we have one more push up before the blue iii is done and we go towards the iv.

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Update:
so a quick update on current price action, if we are to continue this upwards momentum, there's two scenarios i see, which are only slightly different (by one sub-wave)

scenario A:

or

scenario B:

i believe once these 5 waves are complete, we will be presented with a great long opportunity on the larger 2nd wave retracement, but will continue this update

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Update:
it seems that we have put in a 5 waves up for the 1, if you look at the chart below, i've shifted the 3 to where the gray 1 is (still valid as its larger than the blue wave 1, though was initially unlikely), but to make up for it, we had an extended 5th wave.

we're now almost at a very good potential golden pocket trade pivot, which i will be taking long on xrp/jpy pair but here's the similar setup on xrp/usd, will update on the progress of the trade here, but the initial target will be something like the image below..

Trade active

Trade closed manually

quick update: still unsure about the end of the correction from this 5 waves up so i've closed it for now..

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Update:

so after having left the price action reveal a little more data, i have come to the conclusion that we are still finishing up the macro wave 2 since the price pump to ~$0.80.

the pictures below are how i see it, keep in mind that my opinion on the long term view of this idea has not changed, and only delayed as we put in the final few micro waves down to complete the wave 2 correction before a pump on par with the rise to 80c we experienced back in september of 2018 for a wave 1 of all time macro 3.

and here is the recent price action a bit more zoomed in and possible expectation.. please note that in the pic below there is a chance that the white wave 3 down (i.e. iii) may still have one more sub-wave to complete, but for now i will stick with this.

..As the words of Michael J. Burry goes... "I may be early, but I'm not wrong" ;)

ilaxrp

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