Long

Updated

Pt6. FUD vs FOMO

- Buy fear, sell greed.

Hi and welcome to the last part of my long ongoing TA of the upcoming ZCL fork to ANON.

By now I assume most of you following ZCL have taken a position either before the drop or buying in now at the bottom. If you followed part 5 and had entered in high, you hopefully accumulated a fair amount of ZCL by shorting on the way down. Now it's time to make those worth something.

Targets:

BLUE: Most realistic target. Chance 60%
MAGENTA: Expected target. Chance 30%
RED: Theoretically possible target. Chance 10%

We can expect these movements only as far as TA goes, but we can not factor in upcoming bad/good news other than preparing for multiple outcomes. In this prediction we take the fact, that we are going to fork and that the price indeed will move up rather than down. How high we can expect the movement, is relying on many variables (news, team, BTC).

I will continue to update on hourly charts to find possible movements. However, now we have to keep in mind that this will escalate in contrast to what movement we have acclimatized to during the last week. We could see huge leaps with small to no corrections, so selling at first peak might let you down.

All the best! -B

Note

Everything is getting so squeezed and tension building, no volatility. We either see the so long predicted spring drop and then up, or this tension pops upwards.
Really 50/50, end result either way is that this should start to moving up.

Note

These lines are really bleeding, but the general pattern is getting close to a break out.

Note

We are still stuck in consolidation and accumulation. It is the strongest weapon that FUD has, boring movements and weakness. I am still waiting for a convincing move either way, for now we still have to go with up and down outcome predictions.
1H:

4H:

Note

Psychologically speaking we need to try and not put too much weight on believing and instead take positions with good strategy.

For those who entered in above 200, if you need this to succeed, being too eager might just be your worst enemy. Give this time til 10th sep if it's needed.

If you entered in now, just have a proper stop limit under 120 and just relax.

If you entered in under 120, just enjoy an already good trade and have the same stop limit as above.

This coin is not run by news alone, being involved in a coin makes you scan the net for news, unlike what you would do with a coin you don't follow. This changes your view on small and large movements, trying to justify them to any trigger.

For example, tonight BTC dropped suddenly 200$, it took almost all Alts with it. But for ZCL it feels like it had to do with the news, or team, or the marketing... but this is not true. We just look for the answers when we don't even have to.

Some news will be triggers and should be watched out for. Like de-listing or similar bad news that have huge impact on availability or support. Or likewise good news that changes everything. Like a good listing on a Top 5 exchange, is worth taking into consideration. But trading news is usually dangerous.

When you get good news, the coin goes up, what usually gets forgotten is that TA still apply, nothing goes straight to 10x value. EW 1, 3 and 5 goes up, triggered by news or whatever and these are always followed by 2, 4 and the "ABC" corrective wave down that usually everybody forgets.

Just worth separating feelings and trading as much as possible.

Just my 2 cents.

Note

ZCl bouncing on the bottom trend line for now, id it holds, we could see some movement up.

Note

So we are back to this:

Note

On the 4h chasrt we are about to see the MA golden cross.

Note

There is a big likelihood that we see a spring drop now. We have 4 resistance lines stacked together between 135 to 145 and the MA50. This will probably end up in a last drop, we already are in a descending channel and it will need some momentum to break out from, I think a drop is needed to get in more buyers and rid of all weak hands.
I already predicted this in the beginning of this thread, but for a long time this looked to form an accumulation channel above 140 that now unfortunately finally gave up.
On a positive note, finally something is happening, it was really getting to a stand still.

Note

This should be the spring! Now it's important to first close the hourly candle back above 127 at least and hopefully this will trigger a rally upwards.

Note

-We are in a bear flag atm, so hopefully we see a push out and up.
-RSI hit a new lower low and bouncing up. MACD crossing signal to bullish.
-Volume is really low so we can't expect any sudden big moves yet.
-Bitcoin is dragging ALts with and confuses the TA somewhat.

Note

Looking pretty strong:

Note

Nice looking bull flag/pennant. Right now the pennant seems to hold and should pop up very soon. Or if the pennant breaks down at 133 we have a flag support line underneath at 130.

Note

This is just a slow reversal, typical EW. Still not going very bullish, just an ordinary EW impulse wave. Forming the bottom for 2nd point, before we start 3rd up. Was hoping for a tighter ABC, but it is what it is.

Note

Last update on this ABC, this should be the bounce area, it had to be... if not we are about to invalidate this impulse wave. Patience is being tested here!

Note

So it all went back to the beginning...
Key resistance lines need to be broken in order get the bull run initiated.

we are in a bear flag and about to break out..

Note

Dropping down from bear flag, too weak to push up.

Note

We have 2 scenarios at play here on the daily chart.

Dropping down to 92 invalidated the impulse wave to 240, making it just a wave inside this big bull flag with 3 drive bottoms. We have now touched the bottom line a 3rd time and could expect a test on the upper line (@~200) and possible break out to a bull run continuation.

Scenario 2 would be a test on the grand channel bottom, which was tested before last fork made the parabolic run. It would also line up as a double bottom with previous low @~42.

Note

Now we might fall, hold on..

Note

Or stop limit obviously if shorting... :)

Note

support levels I can spot are, 92, 83, 75, 43.

Note

90ish double bottom and bull flag tested bottom line, good support.
83 much stronger declining trend line support.
75 weaker fib support.
43 all time channel bottom trend line and double bottom = major grand support.

We are in a channel going down, it's struggling to stay @ 100 but will probably give in within a few hours. or break out of the channel and up. Look for that breakout or stop limit the fall down to 90ish.

Note

ZCL is so oversold on 1H chart that I can't see this dropping too much at all, unless it consolidates a little and makes a bear flag to push down more.

Note

We have a combination of support lines, and movement is still looking weak both ways. Let's see what news will do to the price.

Note

This threads headline sums everything up. This seriously is a fight between fud and fomo. Alts typically only need some market movers to make big gains, not news in particular. But sometimes the news work like a sort of market mover, like in this case feeding passive fud. Hyping up an announcement to then let down the audience almost on purpose, to move the coin down. If this would be the plan all along, it's not working that well, looking at these weak desperate drops I'm starting to feel when people start to exit, market movers could see a lucrative chance to push the price back up and flip the coin from fud to fomo in an instance.

But for now, let's see what happens next. The news are out, fork is still happening, not everyone is investing in the project and merely taking positions because of the fork. That is the point why the price should, and probably will rise in value, if it then is just a day before the fork, who knows.

Note

I would say this is the turning point. I expect a continues rise for 7 days. within 2 days: 240 resistance should crumble, and the fomo will kick in. I think this is what we have been waiting for.

All fundamental parts are in.
1. The fork is happening
2. ZCL team has been chosen
3. Fork is being supported on exchanges.
4. Price is heavily oversold

When you see dogecoin dominating the gains, with absolutely nothing to it. You know it's not about news, it's about market movers and opportunities.

News are not that important, but fundamentals are. Being de-listed or getting caught being fraudulent or anything cracking the fundamentals, will impact the price for sure. But now I see that there is enough substance for this to gain momentum.

I hope everybody is still safe and getting through this beating in one piece!

Note

Possible roadmap.

Note

Here are the key resistances and possible pump path. This is optimistic, but we kind of have to see a real push to really have a good run. I hope this could fit the scenario now.

Note

And a pumpmap for the upcoming week. This what it could look like if the stars align.

Note

We need to break the bull flag, it's looking oddly weak though. Usually the first reversal patterns are more stigmatized than later in the pump, so could be just the slow start.

Note

Passing 1085 should do it:

Note

Very close to breaking out up. maybe time to join all other alts to the side of greeeeeen...

Note

Inside flag the key supports to watch are 103 and 96. The top of the channel is seriously giving ZCL a beating because there is no buying power, everyone pumping dogecoin and BTC.

Note

Nothing has changed, but times has passed one more day.

Note

Looks to be going as TA suggested. This is a very tough road full of resistance lines.
108, 113, 120, 130, 150, 180.
These need to convert to supports as they get passed.

Note

Still following TA:

Note

Stoplimit at 100, if this turns up being one more setup (what we already have seen before by bittrex and devs of anon).

Targets as of now:

120
135
150
175
205

Note

Hi! ZCL is letting everyone down. Sorry for for not posting updates, have been analyzing the chart for clues. This is really tricky, but I'll give it a stab.

What we see here is my view on what is about to happen, and what has been going on. The wyckoff bottom was doing fine until Bittrex announced they wouldn't support the fork, that is where everything TA wise fell apart. It now clearly shows that the ann. dump reset the wyckoff bottom pattern at a lower level. We are now approaching the place where the last dump happened, when we were just about to launch up. This tells just how bad of a timing it was from Bittrex to post the twitter ann. But that is that.

I see from TA perspective we should be heading up to SOS at 150ish from here. PLEASE STOPLIMIT (@ 84 I would say) if this drop! save yourself from further attacks. All the best!

Note

And same as above but different count, same outcome.

Note

Well we have a 3rd lower point, which is fine, turning point would be at 79 if not sooner, the RSI is so oversold, this will bounce any second.

Note

All these reversal signs, and this still keeps being forced down.

I think we will see a sign of relief and some decent up movement next, how high it's getting depends on if the market movers are done forcing the price down.

Note

MACD showing sign of a possible incoming pump...

Note

The bullish divergence is very clear, and now we have some action on the order book as well.

Note

Fork is up next, there is a risk ZCL will drop dramatically right after the snapshot, but if this happens I think there will be many buyers ready to exploit the opportunity to get ZCL for a bargain as it's already now for sale. Wallet might be the best option, to get your anon the fastest. Best of luck to everyone.

Fractals and chart below:

Fractals have only a weak credibility. Although this could line up with the bullish divergence that I have been spotting since a couple of weeks back and the overall oversold condition of ZCL, that we might be looking at a long up trend until the end of the year. Obviously this is like forecasting the weather for a month 1 year from now, haha. For the love of charting.

Note

2017:

2018:

Note

We have many patterns leaning towards bullish. The aftermath of the fork has taken its victims, but this is the time for redemption. The road back up will be filled with "bagholders" and for that reason much slower than a normal bullish trend up.

Repeating myself, the bullish divergence is obvious, and the weak bears are giving up, nobody wants to buy just to sell, and the sellers are running out of zcl. Soon the only way is up.

Using the fractal as guide, overlay from 2017, the falling wedge once broken the price recouped at the previous high pretty fast. Height of the breakout can be predicted from the size and depth of the falling wedge. In this case it wouldn't be too far fetched to see a progressive target of 400k very soon.

Just an overlay:

Note

"nobody wants to buy, just to sell" ...lower! ;D correction.

bnqview

Related publications

Pt5. ZCL WYCKOFF shake off!

by bnqview

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.