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10 YR T-NOTE FUTURES: Neuer Bear Market

Updated

Seit 2001, spätestens aber seit der Subprime Krise 2008 haben FED, BoJ und EZB saldiert durch QE´s und QQE´s ihre Bilanzen auf 10.000 Mrd. USD erhöht. Die Käufe von Staatsanleihen werden ab 2018 reduziert. Es ist leicht nachvollziebar, dass Zinsen im Gegenzug steigen. Am 21. April 2015 hat Bill Gross diese Entwicklung bereits angekündigt. Die Argumente gelten immer noch. Bill Gross hatte 2015 Volumen und Dauer des EZB QE´s unterschätzt und lag mit seiner Prognose bis heute schief.

Bill Gross: German bunds are 'the short of a lifetime'
Jeff Cox | @JeffCoxCNBCcom
Published 10:41 AM ET Tue, 21 April 2015 Updated 6:35 AM ET Thu, 30 April 2015
Bill Gross: German bunds are 'the short of a lifetime'Jeff Cox | @JeffCoxCNBCcomPublished 10:41 AM ET Tue, 21 April 2015 Updated 6:35 AM ET Thu, 30 April 2015

Was Bill Gross für Ende 2015 vermutet hatte, wurde durch die Kurseinbrüche an den Aktienmärkten im September 2015 (Crash in China) und den Kollaps des Ölpreises (Crash der Aktienmärkte im Januar und Februar 2016) aufgeschoben. Seit 4 Quartalen sind aktuell alle wichtigen globalen makroökonomischen Indikatoren simultan positiv. Es ist das erstemal überhaupt, dass auf allen Kontinenten zeitgleich fundamentale Wirtschaftsindikatoren über einen längeren Zeitraum positiv sind und dem Anschein nach auch positiv bleiben. Notenbanken werden jetzt gezwungen, die lockere Geldpolitik aufzugeben.

Aktuelle Wirtschaftsdaten von heute aus Grossbritannien hatten sofort Auswirkung auf Bond und Forexmärkte. Zeitgleich wurde der Ifo-index mit besser als erwarteten Daten gemeldet. Für Aktienmärkte ist das aktuelle Zinsniveau noch keine Bedrohung. Der nachfolgende Chart zeigt - als grobe Schätzung - welcher Renditeanstieg das Aufwärtsmomentum der wichtigen Indizes wie DAX, DJIA und Nikkei erst bremsen, dann stoppen und später revidieren wird.

UK economy picks up speed in third-quarter, puts BoE rate hike firmly on track
investing.com/news/economic-indicators/uk-economy-picks-up-speed-in-third-quarter-puts-boe-rate-hike-firmly-on-track-547208

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Der Beginn eines Bearmarketes bei US Anleihen bedeutet nicht, dass Aktienkurse sofort darauf reagieren müssen. Die Renditen sind nach wie vor sehr tief. Es wird noch einige Monate dauern, bis sich das ändert und Aktien nicht mehr eine "alternativlose" Anlageform sind. Bankwerte beispielsweise profitieren von steigenden Zinsen enorm. Financials sind in den meisten Aktienmärkten immer noch der grösste Sektor.

de.tradingview.com/chart/m2rHzWXj/

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Bill Gross: cnbc.com/2015/04/21/bill-gross-german-bunds-are-the-short-of-a-lifetime.html

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Long Term View: (Chart bitte anklicken. Daten werden bei Aufruf und klick auf den "play button" aktualisiert.

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FUNDMENTAL VIEW, BOND MARKTES
GUNDLACH: The bond market's 'moment of truth has arrived'
investing.com/news/stock-market-news/gundlach-the-bond-markets-moment-of-truth-has-arrived-547535

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Draghi Expected to Detail ECB’s Tapering Choices investing.com/news/economy-news/draghi-expected-to-detail-ecbs-tapering-choices-548023

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MONETARY POLICY:
Yellen, Tax Reform And Draghi Rock The Markets
By Kathy Lien, Managing Director of FX Strategy for BK Asset Management.

Between Fed-chair talk and the European Central Bank’s monetary policy announcement, it was an incredibly lively day in the foreign-exchange market, particularly when the ECB announced its QE change minutes before Politico reported that Yellen and Warsh are out of the Fed-chair race.
investing.com/analysis/fx-yellen-tax-reform-and-draghi-rock-the-markets-200221318

Trade active

"Fire and Fury"-Autor Wolff im Radio "Das wird letztlich Trumps Präsidentschaft beenden"

Er hat Donald Trump den bislang wohl schwersten Schlag verpasst: Im Gespräch mit der BBC äußerte sich Autor Michael Wolff nun über sein Enthüllungsbuch "Fire and Fury". spiegel.de/politik/ausland/donald-trump-buch-autor-michael-wolff-rechnet-mit-ende-der-praesidentschaft-a-1186516.html

Trade active

Treasury Yields Are Surging and Bond Traders Are Starting to Get Nervous

Ten-year benchmark at highest since March has traders nervous
Looming supply glut from sovereign issuers damps sentiment

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to the highest level in more than nine months, leading Bill Gross at Janus Henderson Group to declare a bond bear market just ahead of a deluge of sovereign debt sales.
The benchmark U.S. yield rose as much as six basis points to 2.54 percent, a level last seen in March, and the Treasury curve steepened the most in three weeks, as a looming glut of bond supply from the U.S., the U.K., Japan and Germany coincided with a surprise cut in purchases of long-dated Japanese government bonds by the Bank of Japan.
Even though central bank watchers said the BOJ’s actions aren’t interpreted as an imminent shift from ultra-accommodative policy by Japan’s monetary authority, it’s yet another sign of central banks stepping back from global bond markets -- just as the U.S. is about to sell the most debt in eight years. Add to that rising market expectations around inflation, and traders are starting to wager that Treasuries are about to break out of their tightest range in a half-century.
“We’re seeing a lot of overseas buyers who would come in every time we’d have a move close to these levels who aren’t coming in anymore,” said Michael Franzese, New York-based head of fixed-income trading at MCAP LLC, a broker-dealer. “That’s kind of scaring me a little bit. One eye is constantly on the exit button.”
The 10-year yield moved above 2.5 percent earlier Tuesday before paring its gain, and then resumed its upward shift in U.S. trading hours, making fresh highs. It was at 2.542 percent as of 12:16 p.m. in New York. The yield curve from two to 10 years steepened by 5.4 basis points, the most in over a year, to 57.43 basis points.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-09/u-s-10-year-yield-climbs-as-boj-action-spurs-exit-speculation

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Short Term Target Reached: US TBond Yield 2,60%

Stockmarktes vs. Bond Markets:
investing.com/news/stock-market-news/asian-shares-step-back-from-2007-peak-oil-at-threeyear-high-1084803

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Short Term up:

Treasury yields pare climb after better-than-expected 10-year note auction

Treasury buying picked up, pushing yields slightly lower, Wednesday afternoon following an auction of 10-year Treasury notes that drew healthier demand than had been expected. An unconfirmed report earlier in the session indicated that China may be considering halting or slowing Treasury purchases, which had cast a pall on the market, driving prices lower and yields higher, as investors appeared to shun U.S. assets. However, market participants described appetite for the 10-year notes as solid. "In the context of a wild and messy few days in interest rates, the 10 year note auction was good," wrote Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer for the Bleakley Advisory Group. The so-called bid-to-cover ratio for the auction stood at 2.69, the highest since 2016. Bid-to-cover ratios are a gauge of appetite for the debt sale, the number represents the proportion of bids received to bids accepted. Treasury auctions can be a litmus test of the state of the bond market. In recent trade, the 10-year Treasury note yield TMUBMUSD10Y, +0.25% was up at 2.569%, versus 2.542% on late Tuesday. The 2-year note yield TMUBMUSD02Y, +0.01% was slightly higher at 1.973%, from 1.968%. The 30-year bond yield TMUBMUSD30Y, +0.36% was at 2.910%, from 2.883%. marketwatch.com/story/treasury-yields-pare-climb-after-better-than-expected-10-year-note-auction-2018-01-10?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

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