Wheat Futures Update –
Focus: Spring Setup + Multi-Timeframe Convergence
📈 RSI
RSI on both 1H and 4H charts bounced from oversold in March and continues to rise. This shows improving momentum with no signs of overbought stress yet. Bullish divergence at the lows confirms the current rebound.
⚡️ Momentum
MACD and short-term oscillators have flipped up after a corrective dip. Momentum made a higher low alongside price, confirming a possible trend shift. The ADX is low but ticking up, hinting at a trend reawakening.
🔊 Volume
Big volume spikes occurred during March’s capitulation and early April’s rally — signs of accumulation. Pullbacks have had weaker volume, a bullish signal. A breakout above $5.55–$5.60 on rising volume would confirm a larger rally.
🕯 Candlesticks & Patterns
Bullish reversal candles formed at $5.17 and $5.25. Price is carving out higher lows and forming a falling wedge — bullish if price breaks out above $5.60. Support remains firm in the $5.20–$5.25 zone.
📊 Moving Averages
Short-term MAs (like 20 and 50 on the 1H) are curling up, while the 4H 50 MA is about to challenge the 200 MA. A golden cross could emerge if prices stay firm. We’re in a trend transition zone — watching for confirmation.
🌊 Elliott Wave
The March low likely marked the end of a 5-wave downtrend, and wheat may now be in the early stages of a new 5-wave uptrend. The rally to $5.69 counts as Wave 1, the dip to $5.25 as Wave 2. If valid, Wave 3 could target $6.00–$6.50.
⏳ Cycles
2024 likely marked the bottom of the 8-year wheat cycle. Shorter cycles suggest a rally into late Q2 or early Q3 is probable. Cycle timing aligns with seasonal tailwinds for May–June.
📅 Seasonality
Wheat tends to rally from April through June. We’re now entering the strongest seasonal window, historically associated with weather-driven price spikes. The recent pullback looks like a textbook seasonal buy.
📉 COT Positioning
Funds are still near record net short, while commercials (farmers, users) are heavily long — a classic contrarian bullish setup. Any positive catalyst could ignite a major short-covering rally. Sentiment remains max bearish, which is often bullish.
🌽 Wheat vs. Corn vs. Soybeans
Wheat offers the best risk/reward setup now. It’s technically basing with signs of reversal and has the most room to rally. Corn and soybeans look healthy too, but wheat is the laggard with the most explosive upside if it catches up.
🧮 Summary of Indicators (1H + 4H)
RSI: Rising ✅ Converging
Momentum (MACD): Turning up ✅ Converging
Volume: Accumulating ✅ Converging
Candlesticks: Bullish ✅ Converging
Moving Averages: Mixed ⚠️ Diverging
Elliott Wave: Uptrend start ✅ Converging
Cycles: Bullish phase ✅ Converging
Seasonality: Spring rally ✅ Converging
COT Positioning: Contrarian ✅ Bullish
🚨 Invalidates Bullish Setup If:
Price breaks below $5.17
Lower high forms under $5.50 and breaks $5.25
Bearish fundamental shock (e.g., supply surge)
Seasonality fails to lift price by June
📌 Trading Plan
Short-Term:
Buy dips $5.25–$5.35 or break above $5.60. Target $5.70–$6.00. Stop below $5.17.
Medium-Term:
Accumulate $5.20–$5.40. Target $6.00–$6.50 into summer. Stop below $5.00.
Long-Term:
Buy and hold in low $5s. Target $7–$8+ over 6–18 months. Stop < $4.80 or manage with small size.
Focus: Spring Setup + Multi-Timeframe Convergence
📈 RSI
RSI on both 1H and 4H charts bounced from oversold in March and continues to rise. This shows improving momentum with no signs of overbought stress yet. Bullish divergence at the lows confirms the current rebound.
⚡️ Momentum
MACD and short-term oscillators have flipped up after a corrective dip. Momentum made a higher low alongside price, confirming a possible trend shift. The ADX is low but ticking up, hinting at a trend reawakening.
🔊 Volume
Big volume spikes occurred during March’s capitulation and early April’s rally — signs of accumulation. Pullbacks have had weaker volume, a bullish signal. A breakout above $5.55–$5.60 on rising volume would confirm a larger rally.
🕯 Candlesticks & Patterns
Bullish reversal candles formed at $5.17 and $5.25. Price is carving out higher lows and forming a falling wedge — bullish if price breaks out above $5.60. Support remains firm in the $5.20–$5.25 zone.
📊 Moving Averages
Short-term MAs (like 20 and 50 on the 1H) are curling up, while the 4H 50 MA is about to challenge the 200 MA. A golden cross could emerge if prices stay firm. We’re in a trend transition zone — watching for confirmation.
🌊 Elliott Wave
The March low likely marked the end of a 5-wave downtrend, and wheat may now be in the early stages of a new 5-wave uptrend. The rally to $5.69 counts as Wave 1, the dip to $5.25 as Wave 2. If valid, Wave 3 could target $6.00–$6.50.
⏳ Cycles
2024 likely marked the bottom of the 8-year wheat cycle. Shorter cycles suggest a rally into late Q2 or early Q3 is probable. Cycle timing aligns with seasonal tailwinds for May–June.
📅 Seasonality
Wheat tends to rally from April through June. We’re now entering the strongest seasonal window, historically associated with weather-driven price spikes. The recent pullback looks like a textbook seasonal buy.
📉 COT Positioning
Funds are still near record net short, while commercials (farmers, users) are heavily long — a classic contrarian bullish setup. Any positive catalyst could ignite a major short-covering rally. Sentiment remains max bearish, which is often bullish.
🌽 Wheat vs. Corn vs. Soybeans
Wheat offers the best risk/reward setup now. It’s technically basing with signs of reversal and has the most room to rally. Corn and soybeans look healthy too, but wheat is the laggard with the most explosive upside if it catches up.
🧮 Summary of Indicators (1H + 4H)
RSI: Rising ✅ Converging
Momentum (MACD): Turning up ✅ Converging
Volume: Accumulating ✅ Converging
Candlesticks: Bullish ✅ Converging
Moving Averages: Mixed ⚠️ Diverging
Elliott Wave: Uptrend start ✅ Converging
Cycles: Bullish phase ✅ Converging
Seasonality: Spring rally ✅ Converging
COT Positioning: Contrarian ✅ Bullish
🚨 Invalidates Bullish Setup If:
Price breaks below $5.17
Lower high forms under $5.50 and breaks $5.25
Bearish fundamental shock (e.g., supply surge)
Seasonality fails to lift price by June
📌 Trading Plan
Short-Term:
Buy dips $5.25–$5.35 or break above $5.60. Target $5.70–$6.00. Stop below $5.17.
Medium-Term:
Accumulate $5.20–$5.40. Target $6.00–$6.50 into summer. Stop below $5.00.
Long-Term:
Buy and hold in low $5s. Target $7–$8+ over 6–18 months. Stop < $4.80 or manage with small size.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.