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The Best Time to Buy an AssetThe passing of time often creates one of two things. It can create Wealth or it can create Regret. For instance… Many people will say, I wish I bought real estate, crypto, stocks, etc. at certain times…then I’d be rich. We are all pretty good at looking backward and saying, “What if?”. With Investing, the two most common reasons people miss opportunities are because they aren’t paying attention or aren’t prepared…and usually, it’s both. The best thing to do is: 📌 Get Educated with proper knowledge 📌 Analyze different factors and Research on them 📌 Create a plan/strategy and start working on it
Education
by FortuneAI
I knew it... And I sure am not coming back to crypto!Bitcoin is not a currency, no companies are doing business with it and using the market to hedge. There is no commercial whales moving money around, and no central banks regulating it either. And so the price behaves differently. Gold doesn't have a lot of import/export currency management, but alot is similar, central banks and sovereign funds are major players. As gold goes up I expect it to behave more in a "speculative way". EURSEK did "top at 6000" as it should be! They call FX a "complex and efficient market" no that is wrong. It is simply a - well yes more efficient market but - a market without hordes of bagholders and bottom chasers. I think that 95% of the time the Forex market is random, but the rest of the time it's pretty predictable I guess. Much less noobs, and this is why regulators hate Forex and want filthy casuals to avoid it entirely. This is just 1 price move I know, but it is yet another example of how BTC is different. What is the point of learning to trade crypto? 90% of what you learn will be lost and can't be transmitted to other assets when the ponzis fall to zero. Or perhaps that knowledge and skill and experience can be useful... Trading hyped stocks and future speculative bubbles with very high retail participation. I'm not a stock expert and clearly I'd rather continue to OTP FX (+ macro commodities), althought I plan on one day investing long term in stocks maybe even speculate short term on those. I would even go as far as saying... Someone reminded me of Pacific Ethanol today, good memories. They were in the news recently, more money problems. Markets are abstract, speculating is the most abstract activity there is involving markets. 90% can't understand something as simple as buying high and selling low. "Ooga booga first degree you have to buy low and sell high tihi it's obvious" Simpletons like this do not stand a chance in stocks & crypto already, so Forex that is "harder" they don't even stand a crumb of a chance. "Muhahaha every one thinks Bitcoin is going to zero but I noticed that last time it went up haha I am a genius visionary no one thought of that I outsmarted them all" I don't know if it's sad or funny. As Jean Claude Van Damme said "they are not aware" ;) If you want to learn more about this you have to be sneaky and ask or search for something like "when intuition is wrong" not "morons that don't understand abstraction" or so, "oh it's ok to be wrong it doesn't mean you are stupid" because no one will ever admit they are an idiot and no one thinks they are anyway. It's like in South Park where 99% of the town men have a certain part of their body "well above average" 😆 Every one's above average, sure, this shows how smart they really are. "Every girl is beautiful, well above average" kek. Maybe there is a girl that is so terrifyingly ugly she drags the average down, is that what they mean? Euphemism and comforting lies, always. But when you're too smart to believe those... Have to look for dumb beliefs centuries old because most people dumb beliefs of today are actually the ones that are correct.... Lmao takes the average person literally centuries to understand something. I'd like to meet the magicians that have plenty of signals in choppy markets. They're so good that they aren't more active during major trends, they produce just as many ideas in dead choppy markets as in ultra trending ones. And they almost all sell something. Jesse Livermore about 'experts' and 'teachers': "makes his money from selling trading books because he can’t make money in the markets." The simple facts that these signal services are not more or less productive in changing market conditions, and their systems don't change, is just so hilarous and a huge red signal. I might short Bitcoin Monday but I'm not "coming back", just taking a look here and there. Made some money when I bought 10 days ago with 10k as a target, got kicked out way before 10k because I trade it as Forex and run for the exit quickly. Crypto Bagholders are right about something: money is made by holding. They don't understand exactly what they are saying. They are right that crypto has big pullbacks, in either direction, and to stay in and extract as much as possible from trends one has to sit through very big pullbacks (ewwww). Reward is large but risk too, there are no free lunch. But where crypto investors trully amaze me is that while they "understand" that crypto has really deep pullbacks, they rush in to buy at the slightest dip. Should I just short the pair? What's even left of the non swedish europe? I think I'll just make a small bet, been right and missing out alot lately.
Education
by MrRenev
18
Every one needs to know this perfectly: the 6 financial assets.Hello. I noticed alot of traders new of course but also veterans do not know their basics that well. I myself, needed to get everything a little more clear in my head, there are still a few grey area's, but after making (and after you read) this idea, it will all be much more clear. The TradingView community, in october 2017 consisted of over 3 million monthly active users, and on average 3300 new users joined daily (0.1% daily growth taking the active user number). In Q4 2017 - 2018 when crypto exploded a massive wave of people joined this site (I joined in december 2017 myself), I assume most were new. Crypto now is the biggest chat on this site so we can assume there were more than 3300 daily for crypto alone when BTC accelerated after breaking $1000 $3000 and $5000. Of course there are certainly alot that just invested in crypto and now lost their money with BTC down back to 3000 & alts down 99%. So, what I am trying to say is there are alot of new people, and in particular crypto exclusive people. I think there are literally millions of people on this site that could use this. The SEC & CFTC AND senators included by the way, I am not sure they have this clearly in their minds, you know what I mean if you have been following crypto regulations and hearings the past year... And if you are a crypto exclusive trader (I feel sorry for you when crypto consolidates half the time), this might shed some light and make the other assets less scary. Before I start digging in, if you were looking for opinions on the eurodollar sorry I do not have any. It is "kind of" going nowhere. ZigZagging randomly, maybe there is a way to trade this, I do not know it. I only join trends or go agaisnt trends if the conditions are right. (1) Looking at volumes & average volatility. Ordered from biggest to smallest. Cash ==> Daily traded volume around 5 trillion $. EURUSD a little over 1 Trillion. USDJPY is slighlty under 1 trillion, then GBPUSD at around 500 billion, then 5 between 100 and 300 billion (AUDUSD 250+, USDCAD 200+, USDCNH 200-, USDCHF 200-, EURGBP 100) , two dozen between 10 and 90 billion, and then "the rest". Honestly The big Forex pairs are not correlated (EURUSD & USDJPY). Pound and Euro move quite together. It is complicated.... DXY (usd index) looks alot like EURUSD as expected... The U.S. Dollar Index is calculated with this formula: USDX = 50.14348112 × EURUSD-0.576 × USDJPY0.136 × GBPUSD-0.119 × USDCAD0.091 × USDSEK0.042 × USDCHF0.036. Outdated if you ask me. I do not like it very much. I should make my own us dollar index. I think I will! Typically moves about 0.5 to 1 percent a day. Fixed income ==> Daily traded volume in excess of 700 billion usd (for the US alone I think). The biggest ones are US treasury bills 10 yr and 30 yr correct me if I am wrong, I think they do volumes of about 50 billion, really not sure. I tried looking at the german euro bund but I do not really know much about it. Better stick to US30YR and US10YR. Careful they are not as safe as they seem; wide moves happen. Prices are more expensive there are very few retail traders compared to other assets. Mostly institution traders buying/selling for millions at a time. US30Y typically moves 2 to 2.5% a day. US10Y is the same. Equities ==> Nyse + Nasdaq represent a little over 1/3 of the world stock capitalisation (maybe less and less now that the bubble popped) and traders are much more attracted to US stocks than the rest of the world. I know these 2 have a combined volume of 250 billion, going to assume the total worldwode is around 500 billion. Less than Bonds in any case. The indices might be big, all I know is the e-mini S&P 500 trading volume on the CME is 150 billion usd! In total capitalization the US bond market is bigger than the US stock market and I heard their volume was bigger too, but it does not feel "bigger". And treasury bills have less volume than the e-mini. The S&P 500 typically moves 0.75 to 2% a day, it varies wildly. Different stocks have different numbers. But usually 1 to 5%. Commodities ==> 1- Precious metals. Gold Silver Platinum Palladium. Gold the biggest one, and its trading volume is of 125 billion (estimated, daily). Gold typically moves 1.5% a day. Other ones move 2-3% a day. Aaaand I just noticed palladium went above ath and is in a massive bull run since summer 2018. Gold has been going up since then too. 2- Energy. Oil (Texas Crude Light & Brend), NatGas, Heating Oil. Oil futures have a volume of 35 billion with the CME. Oil typically moves 2-3% a day, NatGas 3 to 5%, but sometimes 20% in a day as you might have heard ;) 3- Agriculture. Soybeans (5B), Corn(2B), Wheat(1B), Cotton(900M), Coffee(600M), Sugar(500M), Cocoa(300M), the rest is irrelevant. Soybean futures typically move 2% a day, Corn 2-3%, Wheat around 3%, the rest all about 2-3%. 4- Industrial metals. Copper Iron Ore Aluminum. Copper futures have a daily volume of 5 billion. I know nothing about Iron, but it is defenitly correlated to copper. Copper typically move 2-3% a day. CryptoCurrencies ==> The NEW one! Wouhoo so exciting! Well no not really, just another headache for regulators that have been trying to decide does it fall in the commodity or security category? (How about none? How about you create a new commitee crypto specific, maybe they are waiting to see if crypto is still around in 5 years). Daily traded volume in 2018 was 30 billion us dollar. 10 billion for Bitcoin, 20 billion for altcoins. Clearly the smallest asset. Could grow bigger could disappear. Would be a shame; What do we need it for thought? Internet money and a way to do crowdfunding & buy shares of a company (tokens)? If it is not a super useful innovation, we do not need it. There have been alot of great innovations, but that were not very useful or did not really improve things that much so they just vanished. This asset is "pending", it could simply disappear. Well it is not that bad, still plenty other things to trade. Probably the best asset for stinky newbs (:p). Small accounts are possible, very small, fees are low on most exchanges if you want them to be, open 247, there are no gaps, no slippage (well if you use Bitmex). Bitcoin typically moves 5% a day, but it is like with stocks it varies greatly. Ethereum moves the double of Bitcoin, and altcoins vary. Some can move ALOT on average, they are just scams and going to die thought, so whatever. Most successful alts are the results of pump and dumps. I dare you to tell me no, I was in the discords right before it started... (did not participate I never was in the mod club or tried to be). Property ==> In the US the real estate transaction volume in a year is about 400 billion $ (much lower around 2009 :}). Is there a way to trade this? Via funds indexes or something? This is just for investing. (2) Correlations *** Forex EURUSD & DXY are the same chart... EURUSD & USDJPY not correlated. Maybe a tiny bit, but really not that much. EURUSD & GBPUSD very similar charts especially recent years. AUDUSD & EURUSD not exactly the same, but the trades will be the same. Trading both is redundant. EURUSD & USDCAD sometimes more bullish sometimes more bearish, but basically the same moves. USDCNH & EURUSD. Well in between, I don't know. USDCNH & USDJPY. It is looking pretty similar here. USDJPY & USDCHF. Kind of the "safe ones". They often move together, not always. EURUSD & EURGBP. A Euro strong against the USDOLLAR does not mean it will be strong agaisnt the pound. EURUSD & EURJPY. Not that much correlation in my eyes. USDMXN & EURUSD. At times it just mirrors it. Really no personality Pesos. Then most other pairs just follow the bigger one, like when the AUD falls against the dollar, all AUD pairs fall from experience it it what I noticed. I did not check all pairs like USD versus RUB? I do not know, but I do not want to check everything and get overwhelmed. These 4 are good: EURUSD USDJPY EURGBP EURJPY they represent most of the currency market action. The rest is all a mirror of one of these 4. I will have these 4 in my watchlist & then there are about 30 important pairs with a volume of 10 billion or more I can look at, maybe I notice something, but most focus will be on the 4. Maybe if I want to short EURUSD I might notice AUDOLLAR is heavier and short that instead... 4 is good, not so much I would get overwhelmed. *** Bonds 30 YR and 10 YR treasury bills move the same as far as I know. Then there are so many. Why bother? For my part I am not trading that (yet), but I will be putting US30Y in my main watchlist & keeping an eye on it and hopefully learning more about that financial product. *** Equities There are so many stocks. Hidden gems, whatever. Not worth my time. Not a big stock expert, Almost everything follows vaguely the big indices Tech stocks are all moving the exact same way (FAANG), stocks from the same area move the same (all video game companies had the same issues they are all down 40% more or less). I do not know the different industries well, I know it follows the general market direction, I do not really know when it does and when it does not, the difference in every industry. So unless I get to know more which will take a while, I only watch a major indice, the Dow because I want to, could be the S&P same story. I cannot tell you more on exactly what the correlations are and how "close" they are sorry. *** Commodities A/ Precious metals ==> Trading gold only is enough. Or just watching it. It leads everything. B/ Energy Might as well only watch Oil and see it all as one big thing, to keep it simple. C/ Agriculture Wheat and Corn, regular carb stapple foods and Soybeans, all the same (All CME). Cocoa does not seem correlated to anything? It has some delay on the rest? Might be interesting to look at weekly chart once in a while... Cotton Coffee Sugar (all traded on ICE) look similar... Just going to have Soybean futures in my main watchlist I cannot be bothered with the rest, trying to understand the risk, the is it correlated the what if? Can still look from time to time for opportunities... D/ Industry metals ==> Copper , the rest is just copy pasta *** CryptoCurrencies There are sooo many crypto's. It's all the same story thought. Fortunately, most of these scams will die. If 10 to 100 remain it would be good. All the scams and various ponzi's have created alot of confusion with people (such as the SEC). Trust me the reason the SEC have waited and waited and waited is because there are so many different crypto's doing different things they have no idea how to categorise them. They tried starting with the biggest ones first which is what they should do but they did not produce much really... I think they are just waiting for the bubble to finish popping and most crypto's to die. The SEC wants to prevent dumb money from getting scammed and they have been putting out a fake ICO site and heading warnings, they do not want to do nothing. ===> I only watch Bitcoin . The rest is irrelevant most of the time (for trading purposes). Might change in the future. Sure I could look at other crypto's "oh Ethereum is more bullish my edge is better here, oh Litecoin has started going up early before the rest" whatever, it's just adding chaos randomness. Can't be bothered. I tried, not worth my time. (3) Conclusion I hope you enjoyed this post. I enjoyed making it. My watchlists are as follow: A main one I use all the time and look at 4 hour chart with * EURUSD USDJPY EURGBP EURJPY which covers most of all Forex * GOLD OIL SOYBEANF COPPER which covers most of all commodities * BITCOIN * US30Y * DJI A watchlist for Currencies with 30 pairs I might rarely watch from time to time looking for potential swing trades. A watchlist for Commodities and Crypto with half a dozen commodities and half a dozen crypto, same logic as the currencies watchlist. Daily chart or bigger only. A watchlist for ~12 indices and 90 of the biggest stocks in the world (mcap over 50 billion usd). Only for backtesting (for now). A watchlist with 1200 stocks I never use but might look at sporadically, for education purposes. ===> In the end, I mostly trade Bitcoin + 4 FX pairs + 4 Commodities, and am researching more FX pairs & commodities, might have some opportunities. I can be more picky with my trades if I watch more, but at the same time it adds confusion and everything. Also learning about stocks and bonds little by little. Ignoring crypto other than Bitcoin and maybe ETH for the time being. In any case, for every of the 6 assets, you are good with 4 symbols each. More gets redundant and makes it complicated. Just go 4 each and separate them clearly, make it easier ;)
Education
by MrRenev
2