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Second wave or no wave - the choice is yours! Just have a look. I present a case for probability south on the DJI (Wall Street). Reality is catching up. Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FOREXCOM:US30Education
by Captain_Walker
MAN AND MONEY vs VIRUS! WHO WILL WIN?The picture of the 2019-nCOV is rapidly evolving. Globally there have been >14,000 cases and >305 deaths. The trajectory of spread of this virus has exceeded SARS (2003). In under 20 days there are 14,544 cases. There were less than 20 cases in the same period for SARS. SARS plateaued off at 8,500 cases after 100 days then fell off. What we're seeing in hard evidence is that nCOV is going rapidly exponential - almost doubling in 20 days what SARS reached in 100 days. 8 countries have effectively quarantined China in various ways. AND NOW - China has told everybody to calm down, that it will maintain financial stability and pump their market with USD$173 Billion from Monday 3rd February 2020. The FED and Australia are considering similar moves. The global economic disruption in what was a 'risk-off' situation, is gonna be serious and probably last well over a year. This doesn't mean that the markets will tank over the next year. It means expect bearish pressure. Think also about an 'endpoint'. How will anybody know when it is safe to open borders, trade and travel in China? If the VIX gets above 53 there is serious trouble! Declarations & Disclaimers: For the avoidance of doubt, this post is only about potential impact of a virus in financial contexts. I take no comfort at all in people suffering and dying. Whilst I am sorry about the human consequences, I deal with the markets as an instrument - like any other. It is not illegal or immoral to exploit the movement of any market for any cause. As usual this is not trading advice. If you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
SP:SPXEducation
by Captain_Walker
REVIEW: DJI (Wall Street), DAX and nuclear options. I've looked into the DJI and the DAX because they are connected. I also considered events affecting the Hong Kong index. In the text below, I consider China's 'nuclear option'. Overall I'd say the probability is greater for the south on these indices (from this point in time). But caution - because there is a residual probability for the north and I can't know how far south the markets may go if the markets are with me. These are very troubled times. 1. The markets are overbought because of QE4.0, lowering of interest rates and high hopes about a China 'Phase one' trade deal. 2. But there is trouble in the Hong Kong Stock market. 3. POTUS signed the Hong Kong Democracy Act which could cause the Chinese to retaliate in some way (nobody knows how). The 15th of December 2019 is an important date on which $160 Billion of tariffs on imports to the USA, get lumped on China or they are withdrawn. If the tariffs are withdrawn, expect markets to head to the moon (stupidly). If the tariffs are applied, expect a correction of some sort. Bond troubles In other trouble China has begun the so called nuclear option of selling off US Treasuries. Note that Treasuries are bonds, which means that money is owed to China by America i.e. they represent a debt owed by the US. Why would China sell off US Treasuries - which are debts owed to China? Perhaps because China expects the US Dollar to be worth less in times to come. It's like this - if I lend you money fixed in USD value, and then you decide to devalue your US dollar by various means, it means I'm getting back less value. For an exploration of Bonds go here . China holds about $1.2 Trillion of US debt. A sell off of US Treasuries is said to destabilise financial markets. How - is a separate complex story. The point is that China's retaliation on the Hong Kong Act could be this 'nuclear option'. The point of all this is that there are complex issues affecting the markets. Disclaimer: Nothing shared here is investment advice or encouragement to trade in securities. If you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FOREXCOM:US30Education
by Captain_Walker
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